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VTK

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Posts posted by VTK

  3. Posted

    I don't care for %win/loss..it can be well under 50% and one still can be profitable on the long run.

    One of the odds enhancers that i use is profit margin.And it isn't just about risk/reward.

    If all other criteria are met then big profit margin is,actually,something that drastically increases probability that trade will go in mine favor.

    Also by quantification of supply and demand of the market,turning points can be anticipated with quite high degree of accuracy.

    So it is possible to have decent %win/loss and big profit margins.

  4. Posted

    Your winners seem to all be smaller than your losers. That is consistent with a high win rate strategy. A string of bad luck and you will find yourself in a deep hole that is hard to come out of with small winners.

     

    :dito

     

    It should be other way around,J.

    You should keep your loses small and your winners much bigger than your losses are.When we are talking about win/loss,that's the only way to ensure that you stay in tha game long enough in order to give your self a chance to succeed.

    I like to have profit margin at least 3 times bigger than my risk.Most of the time it is 4 or 5 time bigger than the risk or even more.So if i have R/R 1:5 in one trade it takes 5 shitty decisions to wipe out one good decision.

     

    VTK: Do you think I am looking at this from an unhealthy perspective?

     

    Who can tell you not to be happy!?

    I certainly can't and won't:)

    But the point is that with time it all becomes same.At least for me.Winning or losing you are just doing your job.Losses are cost of doing business winners are part of doing it.Not much to get exited about.

  5. Posted

    In one sense, I should always have a healthy dose of fear (or perhaps, a healthy respect) for the power of the market. However, clearly, I am experiencing some fear based on my trading size when I hold overnight positions.

     

    If you are experiencing fear because of trading,tells that you are not comfortable whit what you are doing.So taking acc size to about a minimum allowed by your broker,going with one contract and testing yourself and your strategy for couple of months would be a good idea:2c:

    Most likely markets still will be there in a 6 months or a year.

    Although you probably did some demo-trading it ain't same as live trading.25k is not a pocket change.At least not for me.

    So why to bring yourself potentially in situation where you lose most or all of it?

    I'm sure that then you would think;"why i didn't trade just with 5,6,or7k.."

     

    Back to fear...Think that respecting tha market would be enough.Would say that there is no "healthy" amount of fear.In a way,fear is unhealthy.

    Will quote great trader and mentor on this;

     

    ....Again, what keeps most people from the process of "growing" and "achieving" is fear. Fear is debilitating, it divides people; think of the

    worst decisions you have ever made in your life - they were likely fear-based decisions... Fear makes people run to lawyers when they

    are likely not even necessary. Fear not only divides people, but also divides entire countries, causing leaders to spill the blood of sons,

    daughters, brothers and sisters. Why? Most of the time, it's just fear. It is fear that most often keeps people from enjoying the great

    adventure called life.....

    Can you imagine living a life without fear? One of the best antidotes for fear is love. Love conquers fear. When love is at the center of

    your life, it tends to flush out fear and give you the strength to climb any mountain, no matter how high. Why don't many people truly

    love? Most of the time, it's unfortunately because they are afraid. If you are one of many who are in the middle of the bumpy journey

    toward self-empowerment through market speculating or anything else, stay encouraged. You will make it to the peak if you realize

    that the valley is NOT a permanent residence. Timid people don't change the world, they hide when the pressure is on. Never forget, to

    become a butterfly, you must want to fly so bad that you are willing to give up being a caterpillar. Growth and change always go hand-in-hand with failure and fear.

     

     

     

    It is in this area that I get internally confused and tossed around by the myriad of trading axioms..

     

    Screw the axioms.Confusion about exiting points can be easily solved by a exiting rule.What i like to do is to mark entry,stop and target levels on mine chart even before i enter limits and stops into system.

    Exits are as important as stops and entries.Think that those 3 things(entry,stp,target)are 3 parts of the same whole.

  6. Posted

    Hey J.!:)

     

    First of all i like your way of thinking.It's great that you are aware of problems.Most newbies seems to jump on the bull and start with rodeo.

     

    I don't think that Tams meant what he said in a foul way.Would say that he thought "stop trading and go back to drawing board."

    At least that's what i would do if i were in your skin.Or at least i would cut down acc size drastically.

    Now to give mine :2c: on some of your writings

     

    When does confidence become overconfidence?

     

    Think that there is conscious confidence and ego based confidence.First is when you are confident based on your experience and know how.

    Second is when traders ego wanna create illusion of confidence as a encouragement boost.You said that you are bit fearful-fear and true confidence don't go together

     

    ..but what is the appropriate mindset for one to have when they are trading well?

     

    Same one that you have when you are pissing.Or chewing a bubblegum.You just do your thing and that's it.Nothing more nothing less.That may sound bit blunt,but i believe it's like that.

     

    I wanted to mention some trades that I have really thought had the potential to be solid scores, but failed to capitalize on.

     

    For example, I sold Cocoa short ......

     

    I am a little scared to be short 3 contracts over the weekend but I believe

     

    This tells that you don't have exiting rules or that you are not respecting those rules.

    If you don't have them-make them,if you are not respecting those rules-start to respect them.

    Also make a rule for a overnight positions.Stay in or get out before market closing.And respect the rule.

    Maybe you might consider FX.As you sad that you like swing trading,most of the time spot FX is great market for a swing trader+it closed just thru weekend.

     

    You can see that I am still fighting conflicting emotions

     

    Emotions could make you blow up your acc.

  8. Posted

    Hi all, I am newbie here,

    I need some advice on my trading decisions..

     

    Hey Josh..

     

    Let me ask you something...would you go into minefield if you are not highly qualified in removing field mines?

     

    Now just transfer this to trading,be aware that there are many field mines on a path,get rid of "fast$$$$ mentality",learn thing or two...

    Wish ya all the best:)

  9. Posted

    Good judgement comes from bad experiences. Go and get yourself some bad experiences, but try and keep them as cheap as possible.

     

    Good one,VaughanV!:)

     

    As mine favorite trader once wrote;

    ".....Instead of being afraid to fail, I now understood that

    success is IMPOSSIBLE without some failure.Most people are afraid of failure in any part of life, especially trading. You have to understand that failure does not happen TO YOU, it happens FOR YOU. It is an opportunity to grow. When you shift your mind and think this way, you will smile with each failure, knowing

    that you have just identified a flaw that needs to be corrected or removed. Adversity is scary in the moment, but it is always when we

    grow the most. How wonderful adversity and failure really are." :D

     

    Sorry for offtopicking!(is this even a word!? :D )

  12. Posted · Edited by VTK

    Can't help there mate as i didn't had such issue.

     

    Have you checked out THIS LINK?

     

    I did exactly as they ^^^ instructed and never had any problem whatsoever.

    I am not sure that they even have different versions for win/linux:shrug:

     

     

    EDIT

     

    I see now..they say;"Non-.NET/CLR Version of Sierra Chart.This is the very latest version of Sierra Chart."

     

    You could try to follow steps from the link above and keep .net version...?

  13. Posted

    I can now report back that after installing the latest non-.net version of Sierra with the latest version of Wine on Ubuntu 11.10 with no problems at all, it looks like it's going to run really well...

     

    Same here.Have been running SC via Wine for last 6 months without any issue.Working same as it did in Win.

    Although i am using it just for charting so can't tell how it does with trading from it.

     

    In general i love SC!

    You can't beat the price compared with TS or ES.

    250$ for TS(and that's just for FX) or 26$ for SC(DXY and SPX incl.)...hmmm,really hard decision:D

    I admit,i use just lines and different TFs for mine trading so i can't comment any advanced stuff.

    Also their support board is excellent.I can't recall that it ever took them more than 24h to respond and most likely fix the issue if there is one.

    I am pleased with SC FX data(which they get from FXCM),very rarely i get bad candle stamping or any other issue regarding data.

     

    So let's see...

     

    Reliable data feed

    Great charting tool/options

    Bargain price

    Great support

    ...is what,for me at least,makes SC ..."the real deal".

     

    Cheers!

  15. Posted

    VTK perhaps to truly harness the power of at ease thought(not necessarily relaxed as such), it is better to pursue both a competent strategy avoiding the stress in the first place AND de-stress afterwards regardless....

     

    Yes...it's like being in balance,walking the golden path of the middle..

    In a way that if one is spending lots of time in front of screen than it would be good idea to do some mind/body recreation in order to "cancel" "extreme behavior" of sitting too much in front of screen thus getting her/him self back in balance.

    Maybe not the best example of mine thought but i think we are on same page...

  16. Posted · Edited by VTK

    ....mellow stress-free state while trading? Is there a simple answer or is it something which depends on the individual?

     

    Think it is individual.Let's look why trading can freak out traders.

    As it is all between ears,good old brain can kick in with believes,emotions,over sized ego...

    Those things are having influence on trading results thus if not in check they will lead to loses.

    And there you have a stressful situation,which can lead to greater mental struggle,which can lead to even more loses.

    So it's like cursed action-reaction circle.

    Let's face it,if someone is trading tested and trusted strategy,is profitable during course of couple of years,there is no reason to be stressed out because of trading.

     

    OT;

     

    Anyone do yoga regularly?

     

    For last 2.5 years i am doing form of yoga and it helped me drastically in general when it comes to mental side of trading.And as i am firm believer that trading is 90% psychology i also believe that any form of improving your self on mental side can and will help with trading:2c:

    Beside yoga i am doing Ving Tsun Kuen Kung Fu,which is not just about mindless fighting.Philosophy of VTK Kung Fu can be applied in everyday life,ideas are simple and powerful same as fighting part of VTK.

    This martial art is also something that i love and it have helped me a lot.

  17. Posted

    Good stuff Spidey:)

    It's almost same stuff as odd enhancers that we got in XLT.Theory is on spot,difference is just in how spreadsheet look like.It wouldn't feel right for me to post original one which i got from OTA because of other XLT colleagues.Those that you have attached are fine to use.

    But with time you can throw this out of window.Low risk-high reward trades start to poke you in the eyes.

  20. Posted

    Trend?

     

    Trends are nothing more than price moving between two key areas of supply and demand.I don't look at MA,highs/lows....to determine what's the trend.By quantifying sup/dem one can anticipate what could be next move(trend) of price.

     

    Time of day?

     

    I would say that with spot FX that's not important.But if one is trading,for example,on Globex then i think it would be a good idea to go for levels which are made during US session.Only exception might be currency futures but don't hold mine word for it as i don't have much experience with those.

     

     

    Tick?

     

    If you mean tick chart i am not using it.But as candles are made per X amount of trades placed i don't see the point of using it in spot FX as it is decentralized market.

     

    ....just look at the potential trades with these variables in your head and make decision.... based upon experience/intuition ?

     

    After some time potential trades start to poke you in the eyes.That comes with experience and discipline.Although Sam made for class odd enhancers scoring spreadsheet i am not using it anymore.

    Hope this helps PoolDuck!:)

  21. Posted

    Yesterday i was quite general on what i am looking for when searching for trades.

    Although i have answered "..why you think these look like good levels, as opposed to other nearby levels.." with general explanation i would like to be specific about those two levels as Josh has put the question that way.

     

    EURGBP-It's at weekly area of demand,level it self is very clean and neat,it's origin of big move in price which did not meet any serious supply for quite some time,there is nice profit margin,price didn't spend lot of time at the level,it's fresh level where price hasn't been already,also it's not just a reaction of price to some prior level....

     

    What i don't like;EG is very high on sup/dem curve,other words EUR is expensive so sellers should have easier time than buyers.This leads me to conclusion that i should take potential profit quicker than i would do if price was much lower on S/D curve,making EUR cheaper.It's same as with any other buying or selling,high prices make people sell,low prices make people buy.

     

     

    USDCAD-It's close to big picture demand,UC is very low on S/D curve,strong move out of the level,potential for huge profit margin(target which i have marked is there just to make example)

     

    Does all this guarantee that those will work?Of cores not.There aren't any guarantees in trading.Except that we can lose $$$ quickly and easily:D

     

    By the way Josh,how to upload jpg on TL servers?

  22. Posted

    @VTK: I wonder, which timeframes work best for you? How many entries do the charts -say in 1 month- give? How many markets do you track?

     

    Hola PoolDuck!:)

     

    I trade just spot fx,swing trading.I don't go lower than 60M or higher than daily for placing trades.I am not in love with any particular time frame just trading of one which gives best deal.Like going in different shops but checking out same merchandise.

    I am very picky about levels and i am always looking for quality rather than quantity so i don't have more than couple of trades per month.Let's say up to five,rarely more.

    Trading all majors+some crosses.Keeping eye on $DXY,SPX500,gold.

    There are also two fantastic markets which i would trade if i wanted to do daytrading,FGBL and FESX of EUREX.From mine observation they move more steadily than FX.

    Hope that helps PoolDuck!:2c:

  23. Posted

    Thanks VTK, looks good -- also if you can provide any criteria on why you think these look like good levels, as opposed to other nearby levels, etc.

     

    IMHO,there are 3 big things when looking for quality levels.

     

    Big Picture:where is the price in relation to big picture sup/dem?

    This answer the question of getting long,short or staying flat.

     

    Strenght of initial move;How did price leave the level?

    This one gives a clue about imbalance of sup/dem at the level.

     

    Profit margin;is there a profit margin?

    And this one is not just about profits it's also about odds.Bigger the profit margin,bigger the odds that trade will work(if other criteria are met)

    I like to see big candles when price leaves the level.This gives a chance for a price to come back in a same manner.More stretched price is when it comes to the level,stronger the reaction will be.It's like rubber band.

     

    Other odd enhancers;$DXY,level on top of the level,approach to the level,retracement,time at the level.

     

    Josh,i hope this answers your thoughts.

     

    Now i would like to address this "time past/level will work or won't" thing whit two charts that i managed to dig up.

     

    th_Screenshot-NetDaniaFinanceChart.png"]th_Screenshot-NetDaniaFinanceChart.png[/url]

     

    th_MonthlySP500Index.png"]th_MonthlySP500Index.png[/url]

     

    Notice where price was at sup/dem curve when it kicked those levels.That's key thing,it's not when those levels were created.Also notice how streached it was.Now i am not saying that those are same orders from years ago and frankly i don't care who is willing to place a trade at or near those "old" levels as long as they work.

     

    Here is another pick for SPX500

     

    th_WeeklySP500Index.png"]th_WeeklySP500Index.png[/url]

     

    P.S.

    I ma new to photobucket so i hope that those linx are working fine for you:)

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