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SpecTrade
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Posts posted by SpecTrade
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USDCAD all closed @1.0213.
Daily trade total loss of 42pips.
H8 trade loss of 1pip.
AUDUSD short half closed @ 1.0293 (-18pips/2)
other half SL @1.0377
Gold SL moved @1,650.3
GBPJPY long limit @117.10 - retest of the lows, possible double bottom, touch trade. Short still half in, stop @ 118.50
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Gold short filled @ 1,631.99
USDCAD long filled @ 1.0214
AUDUSD short filled @1.0275
Euro took my trailing stop out and went strongly down. It's a b..ch, you know.
On the positive side: half of another USDCAD long is still on and half of GBPJPY is still on.
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EURUSD short trade closed for +128pips. 2nd half closed @1.2872
New short order 1.2950 SL:1.3083. Touch trade if yealr mean support (now resistance) is touched.
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Gold stop and reverse @1,632.00 SL1,663.60.
50% retr, DGL R3, PPZ and lower channel retest, Bands res. Pin Bar entry.
Another chart shows reaction from long awaited area, 150ema, 200sma is very close, and again Pin Bar. Too good to be true?
If the market does what I hope for, I would have to assume Gold could be confirming it's downtrend.
AUDUSD change short order @1.2950 SL:1.3083.
Another great Pin Bar off 200sma and 62% retrace.
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Just analysis, I don't trade these markets:
JPM - space to go
WMT - long actually
JNJ - what an ugly chart, if I must I would have to choose long
CAT - almost there to look for shorts at top of the channel
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The post above and this one: I don't trade these markets, but I keep on my eyes on these charts and keep my analysis updated.
Gold-Euro -at very good point to go short providing the bar closes nicely.
Silver - at res. made of PPZ and MQ
Nasdaq - still space to go up, but...
Dow Jones - at important turning point.
Both charts use Fib.Channels
Nikkei - is nowhere. Just sitting on support made of PPZ (green area)
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it's not surprising that sp500 gives bearish signal, as it arrived at it's turning point on my h8 chart - it is exactly at POC (point-of-change) from a larger previous swing. right now it looks like a tiny upthrust pattern. price also follows up along the resistance of DGL level 1. however stop here would have to be quite far: above the MX (maximum extension area) , let's say at least 1.3300. However, given the recent rotation above the res. made of MQ (quarterly mean - gray line), MYR1 (yearly mean res.1 - dashed red line) daily 275 ema (white line: thick) and daily 365ema (white line very thick) - I have some doubts, because it gave numerous bearish pin bars, yet the res. level became a support. It could be that the uptrend persists. We are in a trading zone - meaning, we should be taking short as well as long signals.
Two Daily charts also looks slightly bearish, but what disagrees is: again rotation above 365ema (purple) and also forks as well as DGL disagree. The best area of thinking short is the upper green circle I've marked, or at least the lower one. We're still in an area of PPZ - marked dark gray, so bears will be no surprise.
Another chart with Fib.Channel - gives an excellent area to short - but wait until this day is over and let's see how the bar looks like.
It's just the manner in which price smoothly went above some resistance points... it could be just a correction.
What happened to Corn today? And Soybeans? !!!
Oh, if I only had the money to trade either Corn or Soybeans. Some very nice signals in these markets...
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eur half closed @ 1.2822 (+153pips/2)
cad long order change: long @ 1.0214, stops unchanged
gold stop moved 1,627.5
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eurusd stops moved 1.2822/67
gbpjpy stop moved 119.00
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long order @1.0216 SL staggered @1.0145/35. trying to get back in long position. i still have uptrend on my charts.
first doji then outside bar off quarterly mean and daily 100ema. h8 chart.
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it's still running nicely. stop moved 1,612
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I'm thinking short off Pin Bar at 200sma and 62% retrace.
order @1.0256 SL staggered: 1.0365 & 1.0423
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GBPUSD short touch trade order@1.5715 SL@1.5820
reasons:
chart1:
MQ (Mean Quarterly)
PPZ
50% ret
RN
chart2:
Pitchfork (orange line)
Fib Channel (red line)
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stop moved: 1,607.2
I'm glad I didn't take the short or brought stop too close.
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1st USDCAD long: stops moved to BE + 3 pips.2nd long: half@ 1.0168, other half @ 1.0100.
It looks that very probably I may get stopped on both trades.
a few hours later: 1st trade stopped @ b/e (actually +2, but that's insignificant if i'm looking to get 300-500 pips).
2nd trade half stopped (-65pips).
cad seems not ready to take off in any direction. narrowing pattern = triangle.
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1st USDCAD long: stops moved to BE + 3 pips.
2nd long: half@ 1.0168, other half @ 1.0100.
It looks that very probably I may get stopped on both trades.
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EUR short half stop moved to 1.2905, other half @ 1.2822
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Gold stop moved to 1.601.7USDCAD - both trades: half of the positions stops moved to 1.0168
few hours later: I'm moving stop on Gold back to 1.595 area.
on one chart I have actually short signal - small pin bar off quarterly mean and daily 200sma. H8 chart.
however, it just doesn't seem right, I don't know maybe it will go down, it's just the area doesn't seem that solid.
then i have another chart (with sunday bars) and it shows me more clear that there is nothing to short. so i'm moving my stop at the low of the bullish pin bar.
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Gold stop moved to 1.601.7
USDCAD - both trades: half of the positions stops moved to 1.0168
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I'd like to thank the people whose ideas I found very useful in my trading.
Don Fisher - the creator of DGL (Dynamic Gann Levels) and Andrew who introduced me to him.
Joseph Harts & Jess Thompson - for the amazing "Trend Dynamics"
W.Gann - for his infinite knowledge and ideas, even though most are very hard to comprehend.
Paul Coghlan & - for sharing his mastery of Pitchforks
Tim Morge - for sharing his experiences and knowledge of Andrews' methods
Jim of James16 - for sharing bars formations and PPZ's
Ray Barros - for his book "Nature of Trends"
Ed Seykota - for his web "Trading Tribe" and wisdom.
Also the TL community and FF community.
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Is it possible for you to post when and where you plan on entering and placing your stop and target before you enter?Yes, that's my intention. I started here late while the 2012 trades were in.
I posted USDCAD long @1.0132 before entry was triggered.
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When I started to learn how to trade each time I couldn't understand how the trade went against me caused a sense of guilt. It became so bad that I froze completely and couldn't trade even on demo. I've tried to apply some trading psychology from various sources, all to no effect. TITZ was the book that freed me from feeling guilt. I think the test in the beginning and the end of book is very helpful in some aspects. For me the point was made: markets can and will go against me form time to time. The solution is to find what then. Intensive back-testing did just that.I still would recommend it to traders who encounter difficult psychological situations. Obviously, better books exist, but after TITZ I didn't need anything more in terms of trading psychology.
On the other hand I must add: at times it was terribly boring:roll eyes:.
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Here I post my how I like to see convergence of various indicators for what I call important area of interest. I have already written about 100,275, and 365 EMAs. I will explain other indicators later.
I post 2 charts of USDCAD present time. Sure, I could just use 1 thing, for example Andrews Pitchforks (Median Lines) or Gann Lines. But that's just my preference. I like to see 2, or preferably 3-4 areas line up.
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Every week if I have time I will try to show the way I identify some setups. Today I show 5-6 charts of USDCAD D1 timeframe with 3 lines:
thin line is 100ema,
thick one is 275ema,
orange is 365ema.
When the price comes near any one of these ema's from above I identify this as Floating Support areas of interest. Possible long setup.
When the price comes near any one of these ema's from below I identify this as Floating Resistance areas of interest. Possible short setup.
On the following charts I marked resistance with downward arrows and support with upward arrows.
Obviously price doesn't respect these areas each time, sometimes it will sit there and whipsaw for awhile, other times it will cut through all of the line hot knife through butter. If it didn't we would have a perfect trading system based on nothing but touch trades off these areas and all of us will be millionaires.
However, study these charts (years 2000-2004 I believe) and see how often it was possible to make some good pips/$$$ just by trading near these areas. You need to develop a trigger that is within your trading style. My one is on Daily, but if you want to sit and wait for daytrade, you could possibly get some serious pips after a few trials. Careful trade management would be necessary. Risk never more than 1% of your equity (even as low as 0.3%-0.5% will give good success rate) for intraday. Why so small? You probably will get stopped out couple of times without the possibility of reducing SL. Think about it: if you get into good trend on lower timeframe yours SL will be small, position larger, hence RR can be very, very good.
Even on D1 I risk 1-2% only. Usually 1%, since I try scale into positions and also because I trade other pairs. IMO all markets correlate more often than not. When there is change-in-trend on one pair there is also change in many other pairs and even in markets that are not currencies. I have to be prepared for simultaneous entry on 4-5 markets, moreover I need to be prepared if they all go against me without me loosing more than 7-10% max. That's my heat tolerance, yours might be better or worse.
Most important imo is the patience to wait sometimes weeks or even months for what your strategy describes as "setup" area, and what I call an area of interest.
There is nothing new in this lesson. Moving averages is what our grandfathers developed and also traded successfully. I hope this lesson will be helpful to some of you.
Market Energy: 2012 Trading Journal
in Traders Log
Posted
Gold stopped out (-251pips) @1,650.3/663.7
AUD stopped out (-60pips) @ 1.0293/0377