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In addition to having both a good trading strategy and being adequately capitalized to trade you must have the discipline to follow your system in good times and bad. Most new traders or inexperienced traders will cherry pick trades. They watch a variety of markets and pick and choose what may or may not be a good trade. Even worse a trader will see a winning trade and want to take those profits off the table too soon or even worse take a losing trade and let it go only hoping it will come back to break even. Let your winners run and cut your losses. This is where an disciplined trading system can be of great help. MORE tomorrow..... chart and video of a couple trades today See video here
Today’s missive – R&R - is not about rest and relaxation, but “rollover” and “rumors.” Thursday begins the S&P500 futures rollover. This is when traders switch from December (the current contract) to the next contract month, which is March 2012. Stock futures trade quarterly. Please switch all of your charts before the open. Rollover is normally an unfriendly trading environment because traders gradually switch from one quarterly contract to the next. With volume spread between two contracts, we often see small choppy ranges; however, we’re not in normal times. The current times are all about financial central planning, mad-Keynesian spending plans, bailouts, currency rigging, etc. And since there is currently a little of all of the aforementioned on tap, the market may indeed be active during this roll. In fact, the most recent “roll” was one of the best I can remember. I’m expecting that again. The other “R” is rumors and we had a lot more of that nonsense today. This morning there was a rumor that may become fact, which mentioned Germany would force its banks to (finally) recapitalize like the US banks did. The banks will be bailed out by a rescue fund called Soffin. The market put in its low and every single sell on the bid was covered, while every available offer was lifted. The other rumor was denied within roughly 30-minutes but that didn’t matter, the initial sell-off was simply bought back before the close. It started with more BS from a news outlet (NIKKEI): G20 CONSIDERING $600 BILLION IMF LENDING PROGRAM FOR EUROPE. How many super-special IMF, G20, EFSF, ESFS-squared, ECB, EFSF bonds, etc bailout funds were there? Too many to count in my opinion. However many; how many were legitimate? None. After this was released there was a +14.50-point EXPLOSION…then promptly denied. But as mentioned above, the market re-rallied into the close. After all, why would the truth matter to Fraud Street? Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.” Larry Levin Founder & President- Trading Advantage Larry Levin's Trading Advantage is a leading investment education firm that empowers traders to achieve and surpass their financial goals. More than 50,000 students have used Larry Levin's proven techniques for powerful results.
Wednesday is supposed to be D-Day for the banking mafia. Will the Europeans have it all worked out by then – and by worked out I mean sufficiently screwing the taxpayers – or will they continue bickering? Whatever the result is Wednesday, I’ll bet they agreed on more meetings. In the mean time, let’s take a look at some of today’s data. The S&P Case-Shiller HPI wasn’t very good. Home prices are not rising. Bloomberg, of course, tries to put a good spin on it “Home prices, at best, may be stabilizing according to Case-Shiller data that show no change in the adjusted composite-20 index for August. The reading ends three prior months of 0.1 percent declines (July revised downward from no change). The unadjusted reading, at a very weak plus 0.2 percent vs plus 0.9 percent and plus 1.1 percent in the two prior months, points to price contraction in August given that monthly readings in this report are three-month averages. Nevertheless, the unadjusted year-on-year pace of minus 3.8 percent is the best reading since February in what hints at a flattening in the slope of price contraction.” The FHFA House Price Index was much worse. The consensus was for a reading of +0.3% but it was -0.1%. Moreover, last month’s reading of +0.8% was brought back to reality with a revised +0.1%. Finally, we have the consumer confidence data that was just awful – the WORST since March 2009. Bloomberg’s take: The consumer's assessment of current conditions is at its lowest point since December while consumer expectations are at their lowest point since the recession. The consumer confidence index fell 6.6 points in October to 39.8 with the current conditions component down a sharp seven points to 26.3 and the expectations component down 6.4 points to 48.7. Stand-out weakness appears in the current assessment of business conditions where fewer, 11.0 percent, describe conditions as good and more, 43.7 percent, describe conditions as bad. And what is not a good sign for holiday spending, stand-out weakness also appears in income expectations where fewer, 10.3 percent, see their income rising and more, 19.2%, see their income decreasing. This inversion in income with pessimists on top is very rare for this series. But data doesn’t matter when there “may” be a meeting in Europe…sometime…soon, I think? Pass the Hopium please. Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.” Larry Levin Founder & President of TradingAdvantage.
There is so much information available to traders that sometimes I find it overwhelming or even confusing at times. Since the majority of the available and convenient information is in written form, it makes it difficult to ask questions of the author or the website. And if you do, more often than not you never hear back from them, right? And if you do, so much time has passed that you don’t even remember asking the question much less why you asked the question in the first place. Let’s say a trader is not sustaining consistent profits, and his question is “What do I do?” For the answer, you can go to the internet via any number of search engines; you can go to the book store and/or library to find out how to establish consistent profits; you might even go to some seminars and courses to find the answer. If you’re really on top of things, you might even ask your trading mentor. It’s a pretty broad question, but for as many traders that might be asking this question, there’s probably just as many answers. Why? Because there are a number of moving parts that are necessary for sustaining consistent profits, and depending on where you are in your trading development, the answer can be different and vary for each trader. Integral components to the answer may include your trading plan, your trading style, strategies, and more. The point is, you might “kinda sorta” find an answer to your question, but you may also find out relatively quickly that it is not necessarily customized to your current needs. To add to that, the answer to that question today may very well be an entirely different one if you ask the same question a year from now. The truth is, you need an affordable avenue for asking questions and getting direct, immediate feedback customized to your current needs and situation. Well, I’m happy to report that there is a solution to this sometimes “path to nowhere” when it comes to answering your trading questions. Trading Everyday has launched a new FREE mini-series of seminars called "Day Trading Questions Answered”. It is probably only one of very few seminars available without an agenda because the it is determined by you, the trader. Traders send their questions in advance or they can ask them when they join the seminar. The entire 90 minutes is dedicated to answering only those questions that traders bring to the table. Nothing more, nothing less. How refreshing is that? So if you’ve had those nagging trading questions that you can’t seem to find the answer to, you might want to consider registering for one of the sessions. Even if you don’t have any questions, my bet is that you’ll learn from the questions that other traders ask. It’s free. You have nothing to lose and everything to gain.
Whether you’re a doctor, a basketball or tennis player, a musician, or even a cowboy, knowledge and skills are going to determine your status in your “community” of peers. The level of your knowledge and skills can either catapult you to world class status or usher you out the door; create increased (or decreased) demand for your services or performances; provide opportunities to win awards and generate tons of money if you’re the best, or no awards and little money if you’re not. Whatever you choose to do in life, your knowledge and skill level will determine your success level. If you’ve been in the workforce for a while now, you probably already know that how much you know (knowledge) and how well you perform (skills) are major factors in whether or not the company will keep you or fire you. Let’s take a look at how trading knowledge and skills determine your success in trading. While many people believe that the goal of trading is to make money, professional traders know otherwise. Being an active, professional trader, I know that making money is a byproduct of the primary goal of trading, which is to acquire the necessary knowledge and skills to protect your capital. Simply put, it is extremely difficult to make money if you don’t have the capital with which to make the money. Nearly all entrepreneurs would not have been able to start their businesses if they didn’t first have seed money, a line of credit or loan, or investors to do so. Trading is no different. Trading is a business, not an investment. Successful traders know this. It’s all about protecting your capital. If you are still struggling with your trading when it comes to making money consistently, take a look at your level of trading knowledge and skills vs. those who are actually trading successfully. What do they know that you don’t? Why are they doing well while you are not? Where did they get the knowledge and skills to do so well? It could be anything - from your Knowledge (Have you mastered the concept behind candlestick charts, studied up on risk and money management in trading, established an understanding of the stock market price cycle like the back of your hand?), Skills (How good are you at identifying Traps and 3-Bar Candlestick Plays, or how quick are you at responding (vs. reacting) to the trade signals with the proper set up?), Or even your Psychology (Are you too desperate, unable to control your emotions, distracted?), Habits (Do you have the discipline to follow your trading plan no matter what, the tenacity to focus on the charts on your computer screen 8+ hours a day, the determination to get up every morning no matter how bad it was the day before to do it all over again?). Attitude (Are you willing to learn from your mistakes, to get help from experienced traders through coaching or mentoring, to practice patience and a willingness to do what it takes to succeed?). At the end of the day, if you are deficient in your trading knowledge and skills, be prepared to work harder than those who are already successful. Commit to do what it takes to protect your capital and make money. If you don’t, you may well be ushered out the door sooner than you would like.