Is Market Profile an Outdated Tool?

[Is Market Profile an Outdated Tool?]

There are a couple of problems with MP and there always have been. Having said that many traders obviously find it useful. Clearly the VAH,VAL & POC are watched and traded by enough traders to make them significant. As good an example of 'self fulfilling' that I can think of.

 

It is not so much that it is 'outdated', it was always a heuristic method(rule of thumb). Not only that but one of the premises that it was built on was false (markets are not normally distributed (Gaussian)). Who cares if it gives you a framework to trade within ? Nowadays it is possible to use tools that are based on actual mathematical / statistical principles. Personally I think these tools provide a better framework and I guess strictly speaking that makes MP outdated. Not only that I find them much more 'elegant' and i think they frame price better in many varying circumstances.

 

Vintage cars still go from A->B, arguably in some style . The Lexus practically drives itself.

 

 

Hi Blowfish,

 

which tools do you have in mind? Can yo elabortate on the usefulness of your statistical tools. I am really interested what you mean.

 

Thx

 

cbaer

[Is Trading Just a Sort of Gambling?]

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Re: Is Trading Just a Sort of Gambling?

 

depends on how you define "gamble".

 

Hi Tams,

 

I agree with you. If you take a gamler that goes to Las Vegas

to a casion with a casino manager.

 

Does anybody say, the casino manager is a gambler. No

although he makes his living taking the other side of gambles.

But he does it not for fun, he as an edge (in roulette in america

I think it is 2/38 of a dollar if on every number would be one dollar

bet)

So by providing roulette to the gamblers he takes away from the

gamblers roughly 5% per play.

 

And that is exactly the reason why gamblers are called gamblers

as the do something that has a negative edge for them. This is stuipd

to do and they should immedeatly stop what they are doing.

 

You can only argue that it gives them pleasure and for the pleasure

they are paying a fee, like the price you have to pay when you go

to the movies.

 

So is trading gambling? It can be if you do not have an edge, means

a well wriitten plan telling you what you can do and what not, that

provides a net profit at the end of your measurement periods and that

you are able to execute in the real world.

 

If you have that then you are the casino manager, if not you are probably

looking for excitement and are a gambler. So a serious trader can never

be a gambler. Serious trading can never be gambling.

 

Which leaves us with trading is gambling or not depending only on YOUSELF.

 

What if you do not have that plan and that edge. Well STOP immediatly.

Do not do any real trades untill you have made your homework.

 

That is my advice,

 

cbaer

[Is Trading Just a Sort of Gambling?]

Thank you very much for all your replies

 

Hi salma,

 

Are your sure you should not be a bookkeeper or controller or given tax advice?

In those endevours there is right and wrong

WHICH WILL NOT CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE FROM SOMEBODY.

 

IN TRADING THERE IS NO RIGHT APPROACH THAT WILL WORK ALWAYS.

 

In trading there is no certainty. How often your a right or wrong does not matter

in the end. In fact I think trading is all about decision making under

uncertainty or dealing with uncertainty and comming out ahead.

 

If you do not like uncertainty or hate being wrong, change your job, and do it quickly.

 

Regards,

cbaer

[Suggestions for Trading Psych Book?]

I found that van tharps home study course helped a lot .I did the evaluation and have been through the course several times which has helped me develop my plan and acknowledge my weaknesses and slowly work on them.

Ben

 

Where can one find the Home Study Course of Van Tharp?

[Static Hurst Channel CMA]

I have been using the formula for the Hurst Channel in ProRealTime.

 

The problem that I have is that when an entry signal is generated using the CMA, I have noticed that the CMA can actually still move after the candle close and then void an entry signal.

 

Is there any other way to replicate the Hurst CMA so that it becomes fixed(static) on a candle close?

 

Hello Travelfrog,

 

that is correkt TickByTick processing behaviour. You should limit your entries to the open of the next bar. Means you are only allowed to enter on the open of the bar.

If you have an automated strategy try finding something like 'CalculateOnClose' or

FirstTickOfBar to incorporate in the strategy.

 

Regrads,

cbaer

[How to Fix Buying High and Selling Low?]

Hello joo_p23,

 

Take the time frame you trade divide it at least by 4 (max by 16)

then use some oscillator on it (Stochastics, RSI, MACD Histogramm etc.

contrary to popular believe parameters are not very important)

and limit your long entries to times when the oscillator is below 50%

(or zero with MACD). Reverse for shorts.

Let me know if this is a doable strategy for you, means can you stick to

that rule and with what result?

 

Regrads,

cbaer

[Data Mining Bias]

Hi zealousteedo,

 

Sounds good your basic methodology. I found that I have to experience the

trades to see if i can actually follow the system. So I would take some time

use new live data in demo mode do quite a lot of trades and record how I feel

taking them. Then maybe start with meaningless money to see if your psychology

changes and go from there.

 

Hope that helps,

 

cbaer

[Switching from XP Pro (32) to Windows 7 Pro (64)]

I'm building a new trading computer and all my trading programs are available in a 64/bit version. The closer I get to D-day the more I fear this change over. My question is, if I install a fresh new 64 bit OS and reinstall all my programs in their 64 bit versions, will I have to re-enter ALL the parameters to ALL my indicators ??

 

I'm aware of the XP mode in Windows 7 pro but I really want to "try" to run everything in 64 bit in this new box. Any experiences making the switch ?

 

Hi 5$DAW,

 

the professional approach would be to install the 64Bit Version on a different computer

and try everything. If you use custom indicators you will probably have to port them. I am

using NT for example an the transition was a few month with two systems parallel.

 

Regards

cbaer