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Extrapolating dividends
in General Trading
Posted
Let's assume I was able to imply dividends from liquid options for the next 3 years, but I want to price an option expiring in the 4rd year from now. How would practitioners normally extrapolate implied dividends? From what i've observed there is a significant risk premium in implied dividends far out (implied divs are sold at discount). Actually the dividend term structure is declining. Therefore probably it makes more sense to extrapolate implied dividend rather than historical growth