[BrunoHammerstorm]

Originally Posted by jcavalieri »

this is a chart of the Q's from friday 1/30. i just want to see if my thinking is correct. my analysis covers from the open at 9:30 to 11:00 then 11:00 to 12:00. these time ranges are separated on the chart with vertical lines. also i have marked 8 vertical lines above areas of price/volume flow which correspond to my analysis. the line above the open corresponds to number 1 and the last corresponds to 10.

price/volume observation:

1. price opens on top of a price range from EOD 1.29. Price rallied slightly with strong effort/high activity, but the rise in price was not in proportion to the substantial rise in activity indicating the presence of supply. This proves to be the case as the rally is halted and reversed just below the mid point of another range from 1.29 suggesting weakness.

2. Recognizing price is at resistance and further buying is likely to be unprofitable, experienced bulls withdraw opposition and price declines with minimal effort.

3. As price travels through the mid point + bottom of the range price sat atop at the opening, activity begins to expand with proportional result in price. this expansion in activity is different from the type that typically culminates the current price move in that the context and behavior of price/vol. suggest that supply is eating through demand present at potential support levels at mid pt. + bottom of range. this behavior gives us early warning the support zones will not hold up to this decline, most likely.

4. Following the break of demand line, price levels out and activity dries up. probable swing to equilibrium preceding continued weakness.

5. price then drops to a lower low with expanding activity although much less then the previous reaction. result in price appears to be proportional to activity. less effort + less result indicate a lessening in supply.

6. following the reduction in supply, demand rotates in and produces a minor rally with contracting activity. the rally is stopped + reversed at the mid pt of the prior reaction (tech weak). the contraction in activity as the rally unfolds and the weak result in price movement indicate bulls are not interested in transacting at higher prices and their disinterest causes a reduction in demand.

7. Following the tech. weak rally, bears recognize the bulls are weak and put pressure on price, causing a reaction. price moves to a lower low with expanding activity. although price is declining, the expanding activity shows both buyers and sellers are increasingly interested in this area and showing their support through their purchases and sales. also the extent of this reaction is less than the opening reaction despite similar activity levels. this suggests the presence of demand and possible minor selling climax.

8. following the potential minor selling climax, demand rotates in causing a rally, but with similarly weak effort as previous rallies also exhibited. the rally reaches the mid pt of previous reaction - reverses to test the lows and does so successfully with light activity indicating bears are done for the time being and at a higher low. price breaks the hi of automatic rally following successful test for supply at lows, but an influx of supply at a lower hi as price approaches a potential resistance level from the left stops and reverses price.

9. The fact that price reversed at a lower high suggests downtrend may continue - and does so as price breaks to a lower low. activity increases as price pushes through potential support from climax lows, which is to be expected as effort is required to break through important zones, but downward movement starts to round off despite activity remaining high suggesting demand has filled all the supply at current levels and is starting to over power supply.

10. Following the application of breaking power by the bulls to retard the downward movement, price rallies with much less activity than previous decline and reverses at the mid pt of that decline to test the lows. test takes place on very light + contracting activity indicating bears are done for the time being.

OMG thank you.... i've learned more from your post than an entire VSA thread run by Tradeguider sales reps.

[BrunoHammerstorm]

Originally Posted by matinthehat »

Here is another attempt:

I have tried to incorporate S/R lines into my analysis this time. Please feel free to point out my misjudgments and what i have overlooked.

Thanks.

1. Price rises and volume decreases. The rise is due to a lack of selling pressure rather than enthusiastic buyers. The top is formed on light volume. This suggests a lack of demand.

2. Price then declines on rising volume. This suggests that there is selling interest.

3. On the way down buying support comes in around the previous swing low and drives price up. But there is a lack of demand and prices once again fall back.

4. Price declines and volume rises. This suggests that there is not strong selling pressure.

5. Price makes a new low on heavy volume. This area is tested by a second bar which has heavier volume. Price also closes near the highs. This suggest that support came in at the new low.

6. Prices then rise on declining volume. This suggests that the previous low was a exhaustion of selling.

7. Price makes a new high just below the previous swing high area on drastically low volume. This suggests that there is a lack of demand to drive prices up.

8. Price declines and stops just above a established level of support on mid-level volume. This suggests that there are buyers supporting the lower levels. Price also fails to reach its previous low, this suggests strength.

9. Price then rises on rising volume. This suggests heavier buying pressure than selling pressure. Price rises to a potential resistance line and finds resistance. This is suggested by the higher volume bar.

10. Price then declines on declining volume. This suggests a lack of buying pressure. It forms a new higher low, and this suggest strength.

11. Price again rises to a established line of resistance on higher volume and then stays there for two more bars on light volume.

12. Volume spikes and price declines. This suggest that price met resistance and selling pressure became stronger than buying pressure. Price then declines on decreasing volume. This suggests that there is a lack of buying pressure.

13. Price bottoms out on drastically light volume and fails to reach the previous swing low. This suggests a lack of supply and indicates strength.

14. Price then rises on increasing volume. This suggests that there is now buying interest and it is stronger than the selling pressure.

15. Price approaches its top on drastically light volume. This suggests a lack of buying interest. Price then approaches a previously formed resistance line and the buyers appear not to be able to break through the resistance that the sellers are establishing.

16. Price then declines on rising volume. This suggests that there is selling interest which is stronger than the buying pressure.

17. Price then is stuck around a previously formed line of support on high volume. This suggests that the buyers are supporting this line. Since it is stopped around this previously formed support line, it indicates that this support is strong and price will possibly head up (the path of least resistance).

I'm so impressed how well thought out and improved your analysis are. I learn something new every time I read them. This is fantastic....

I'm so glad traders are learning to analyze the market... rather than training themselves to perform two bar pattern recognition... lol

[jcavalieri]

definitely read section 7m on the stickies section at the top of the forum bruno

[BrunoHammerstorm]

Originally Posted by jcavalieri »

definitely read section 7m on the stickies section at the top of the forum bruno

is this what you are talking about??
DETERMINING THE TREND OF THE MARKET -- COMPOSITE AVERAGES (Sect. 7M)

[jcavalieri]

yes there is a chart at the bottom to follow on

[BrunoHammerstorm]

Originally Posted by jcavalieri »

yes there is a chart at the bottom to follow on

Thank you, but I guess I'm not understanding what you are saying since it is fragmented.

You suggested I read a portion of the Wyckoff material after I commented on your analysis. Are you trying to tell me that this is the material you used to perform your analysis?

thanks.

[jcavalieri]

yes read all section 7m and all the other stickies as well. starting from the beginning would probably help.

[jcavalieri]

db or head, i was wondering if you could go over my analysis and tell me what you think. i am interested in your opinion.