[atto]

10s ES (just now), long:


edit: Price pulled back, +.25 ES, waiting for midpoint bounce (if it happens).

edit: Bounce (entered possibly late, but wanted to see volume come in. 46.5 fill)


edit: -.25 ES. I'll give it one more bounce if it does.]

edit: Long 46.25 (same story). Volume seems to be rising during up thrusts, and declining in these pullbacks. Stop is tight.


edit: Trade update.. 1/2 position out @ 54 ES. Stop on rest @ 50.

edit: ES 1m chart


edit: 1/4 out ES @ 58.25.

edit: Flat ES @ 55.75.

[atto]

I didn't really explain since I was in the trade: My exits were based on climaxes, supply entering the market, and resistance holding. Look at 10:01 EDT on a 10s ES chart, and you'll see the climax. I don't exit until I see a price rejection, which happens shortly after at around 55 ES.

The 58.25 exit was after the 3rd failure at 58.75 on declining volume. The final exit was the newly formed congestion area break down.

Comments and feedback welcome.

[firewalker]

Originally Posted by atto »

I didn't really explain since I was in the trade: My exits were based on climaxes, supply entering the market, and resistance holding. Look at 10:01 EDT on a 10s ES chart, and you'll see the climax. I don't exit until I see a price rejection, which happens shortly after at around 55 ES.

The 58.25 exit was after the 3rd failure at 58.75 on declining volume. The final exit was the newly formed congestion area break down.

Comments and feedback welcome.

How do you define climactic volume? For me volume wasn't climactic until it hit 976 (with vol 25k on 1min bar). I take it your exit around 958 was in part because it was potential resistance and in part because we failed to take it out after several attempts.

Anyhow, after your entry, price came back about 30 minutes later to 947.50-948, which is about where your resistance line shows in the third chart. Did you re-enter there or did you see things differently?

Incidentally, your hinge also materialized at a place where it was hugging the demandline on the 15min. That, and the fact that we had a lengthy premarket congestion close to that level was confirmation of a long entry for me. I didn't actually see the hinge the way you did, but it's nice we both saw different things that lead us to take a similar entry.

[atto]

I hope discussion on exits isn't too off-topic, but I'll answer your questions since they were good, and we'll try to keep more on topic.

Originally Posted by firewalker »

How do you define climactic volume? For me volume wasn't climactic until it hit 976 (with vol 25k on 1min bar). I take it your exit around 958 was in part because it was potential resistance and in part because we failed to take it out after several attempts.

It all depends on what timeframe you're looking at. Yes, your example was a climax, but I would argue it was only a climax on the next bar, when volume was high, but price completely stalled. Regardless, remember that this hinge is primarily on the 10s chart (so a fast chart), and isn't even that obvious on the 1m. Therefore, the traders that influence moves on the 10s are more short term. I do like to use price fractals to my advantage (parlay fast tf entries to longer term trades for bigger gains), but I wasn't convinced on the 1m of a larger bull move, and was largely correct (price didn't break the 58 area for another hour).

I look for two distinct and important things in climaxes. First, I want to see a spike in volume (along with a spike in volatility). Then, I want to see a contraction of volatility (i.e., the move stops). I personally trade them by getting a possible climactic signal, and watching price carefully. Generally, I tighten my stops. The first climax I saw on the 10s ES was at 10:01:10 EDT. My stop was at 50 (previous swing high a while back), and I watched for supply to enter the market. Volume (interest) dropped off quickly, so I didn't exit just yet. Buyers attempted to move it back up, and there was another (much smaller) volume spike. Slight higher high, less volume. By now, I'm looking for an exit if it doesn't continue very soon. I moved my stop to 51.25, and buyers tried again (and failed to keep the move going, same story). I scaled my first half out there.

You're correct about the second scale-out. Here's exactly what I was looking at (slightly more annotated for clarity):

Originally Posted by firewalker »

Anyhow, after your entry, price came back about 30 minutes later to 947.50-948, which is about where your resistance line shows in the third chart. Did you re-enter there or did you see things differently?

I wasn't trading at the time.

Originally Posted by firewalker »

Incidentally, your hinge also materialized at a place where it was hugging the demandline on the 15min.

Funny how these things coincidentally happen

[atto]

Possible developing hinge on 6E (Euro Futures). This same formation is on DX (US Dollar Index).

The hinge is visible on the daily. This is a 4hr chart.

[jaygo]

heres a hinge on the eur/usd, quite a large one. Price seems to be struggling at that mid point so we may see a break downwards soon. i wont trade the breakout as that usually end up being stopped out. So ill play this by shorting when price retracts to that support line or mid point.

[Head2k]

Today's hinge on the NQ. In the morning we broke through 1055-1056 zone which I had marked as potential R but then found R at 1065, another important level. From there we started to trend down. From 1025 we sharply recovered and returned into today's value area, finding R at 1055. On the screenshot the yellow line is daily VWAP (the midpoint of VA) and the red and green dashed lines are VAL and VAH, respectively. In the VA we weren't quite sure where to go next and we started to form a hinge around VWAP, which coincided with opening low, too. The hinge was then broken to the upside, suggesting another attack at 1055-56 area. We breached it but weren't able to hold above. Price then dropped below the midpoint of the hinge (VWAP) and then successfuly tested it from below. Then we broke today's VAL, confirming that the downtrend is resumed.

[DbPhoenix]

Did you play any part of this?