[Gringo]

Below is some longer range prospective of Q's. I would stay cautious at these levels. That being said, so far market hasn't sold off and is continueing to have higher highs and higher lows. Once the dynamic changes, or atleast stalling takes place at these levels, the upmove I consider to be intact. Market can blast through resistances as well. This chart is just a reminder to stay awake. And yes there is considerable support undernethe. Quite a messy area if you ask me.

[Gringo]

I am seeing weakness in Utilities and Energy groups. This means if market in time gets weaker we might have to look for shorts in this group.
Energy will have mostly oil and alternative energy.

XLK = Technology (strong)
XLE = Energy (weak)

I have given XLK and XLE to show the relative strength/weakness of these SPDR's that follow some respective sectors.

At the end of the day if market musters some power to blast through these resitances we may become buyers. Until than I am keen on protecting my eggs by avoiding longs.

Note: October is historically the most dangerous month for market. It's only 6 weeks away. It could all culminate closer to that time (point mentioned by Db in chatroom).

QQQ 40 area is Resistance (R)
Nasdaq: 2000 area is R
S&P500: 1000 area is R
TSX: 1100 area is R

Indexes are stuck at these round numbers. Due to the strength in tech I am guessing sideways movement to have a serious possibility after this substantial advance, as opposed to direct drop in case of more market weakness. S/R is the key and better is to pick a good spot at S/R to minimize danger. I would wait for market to come back up before taking positions on the downside.

If I am able to find something worth shorting on individual stocks I'll try to post them.

For the EOD enthusiasts opportunities come at a slow rate. Some times dizzyingly slow

[Gringo]

Q's have reached the danger point. It appears s/r has been crossed but barely. Today was a chance to place shorts for those who expect reversal at s/r. Market didn't really show much weakness today and kept going up. It did move sideways intra-day for quite some time.

Still, that's the magic of s/r, you play them and in case of adverse move quickly get out. Strangely, I emotionally felt uncomfortable to be thinking about shorting with such a powerful upside move. I had, in my naivete, thought myself to be a Vulcan!

Live by the S/R; die by the S/R.

Next week shall unravel some more.

[Gringo]

Q's are above s/r but xlf are heading towards it. Tech's have been holding quite well but let's see for how long.

SPX is rising and reaching s/r but on reduced volume. It's volume on drop was larger. Lets see if supply shows up as traders return. I am quite bearish in my outlook due to lack of new stocks going up and change in volume behaviour indexes. At the end of day violation of s/r may change this outlook.






RIMM's a personal love/hate stock for me. I have some puts on it and they've come back to break even. I chose RIMM because of better spread on options. Compared to AAPL which is almost at recent peak RIMM has been unable to reach it's previous high despite some analysts upgrades this past week. What concerns me is that RIMM did hold well when market was dropping and started going up. Strength in adversity! (Now shorters do use these news items to re-short when stock reach logical shorting points). Considering tech's one of the strongest group's it's quite dangerous to be short on a tech stock. I like liquidity though and used s/r around 78 for short. Beyond 80 I'll bail on it.

[DbPhoenix]

Originally Posted by Gringo »

RIMM's a personal love/hate stock for me. I have some puts on it and they've come back to break even. I chose RIMM because of better spread on options. Compared to AAPL which is almost at recent peak RIMM has been unable to reach it's previous high despite some analysts upgrades this past week. What concerns me is that RIMM did hold well when market was dropping and started going up. Strength in adversity! (Now shorters do use these news items to re-short when stock reach logical shorting points). Considering tech's one of the strongest group's it's quite dangerous to be short on a tech stock. I like liquidity though and used s/r around 78 for short. Beyond 80 I'll bail on it.

Don't overlook this hinge:

[Gringo]

I was forced to zoom into XLF to see what's going on in there. Below is 30min bar chart.

upper s/r: 14.85
mid s/r: 14.63
lower s/r: 14.4

There's a clear uptrend channel enclosing this recent move. Unless it's violated the trend remains up. I have quite been humbled by this up move. Perhaps I was forcing myself to see a drop in prices instead of just seeing s/r and staying content. Indexes have started to break into new ground and lets see if it stays that way or they drop back into lower value areas.



RIMM hasn't followed Indexes into new highs but is above the hinge and resting right under s/r at 80-81. There is support around 78.

[DbPhoenix]

Originally Posted by Gringo »

I have quite been humbled by this up move. Perhaps I was forcing myself to see a drop in prices instead of just seeing s/r and staying content.

A point which the vast majority either cannot grasp or doesn't trust. The observable result is the same.

You may recall that I saw potential topping in June given that we were having trouble at R, broke the trendline, and made a lower high followed by a lower low. But speculative fever shouted "gotcha" in July and drove the market to new highs. One could argue that it shouldn't be happening, but that wouldn't yield a profit unless he put that aside and "judged the market by its own action".

As long as one focuses on the principles (and by "principles" I'm referring to those detailed in this forum) and confines the shoulds and ought tos to a place where they won't affect his trading, he can't go very wrong. In the XLF, for example, you'll note the climactic volume on Sep 2 (at S) followed by the test on Sep 3. Once one acts on that, all he has to do is follow a simple trendline (ditto Aug 18 and 19). As for RIMM, this is a reasonable place for it to pause, and both longs and shorts are wondering if they did the right thing. The character of the move away from here will reflect the extent of their nervousness.

[Gringo]

Below QQQ daily is shown with some s/r, but I tried to put some channels to it. We seem to be in an up trend channel and touching the top of it. Volume has risen on this move up however there has been little price movement upwards after all's said and done. s/r are getting quite messy on dailies, atleast for me.



RIMM from previous posts has crossed above 80 and negates the earlier short. It is a nice example of the futility of shorting a stock from the strongest group. The earlier posts identified XLE (Energy) as weakest group and quite a few of it's stocks haven't held up well.

XLF 30 min bounced from s/r and it wasn't too hard to see it go up after it returned in the box from the bottom. It is reaching the upper s/r area close to 14.9. It hasn't followed other indexes into new highs yet.