[firewalker]

Originally Posted by DbPhoenix »

I see no one posted a chart of the boxes for today, so the NQ range is from 1958 to 1978, with the midpoint at 1968, and the ES from 1390 to 1400 (it's already testing the bottom of this range).

I've gone over some of my charts from the past, and although I've only on occasion used the word 'midpoint', I've noticed how often I have lines drawn on that particular level to indicate 'potential reaction'.

Your boxes provide an interesting (new) way of representing information. It prevents traders from having too many lines on their charts, although personally I still pretty fond of my horizontal ones...

[erierambler]

Originally Posted by DbPhoenix »

Correct, and, as I said, it was testing the bottom of the range. Given the time of the post, I thought it was clear that the test was coming from below.

As a side note, we came within a tick of the NQ midpoint.

Looking at past charts for the ES, when the cash opened below previous day's range, it was mainly a buying opp, not so for today..........therefore a failed test
erie

[DbPhoenix]

Originally Posted by erierambler »

Looking at past charts for the ES, when the cash opened below previous day's range, it was mainly a buying opp, not so for today..........therefore a failed test
erie

Si. Db's Cajas Famosas say that test of Caja from below is shorting opportunity.

[DbPhoenix]

Originally Posted by firewalker »

Your boxes provide an interesting (new) way of representing information. It prevents traders from having too many lines on their charts, although personally I still pretty fond of my horizontal ones...

Nothing new, really. Just a variation on the MP distribution, which creates it own SD lines, if one wants to draw them.

[erierambler]

Ok , I put something together for Tuesday ( long weekend I take it ). Top box doesn't mean much except for start of swing down for measurement.
erie

[DbPhoenix]

Macros and micros. Macro-macros (two years) can be found in the Trends thread.

[Upthrust86]

Frankly, from what I see you have these boxes drawn everywhere. Famous or not, if f I were trading this I would be bouncing in and out and in and out of the market all the time. Great for sex, but not for trading. I don't get this. I don't understand how to tade this or what sense this makes at all.

[karim0028]

Originally Posted by Upthrust86 »

Frankly, from what I see you have these boxes drawn everywhere. Famous or not, if f I were trading this I would be bouncing in and out and in and out of the market all the time. Great for sex, but not for trading. I don't get this. I don't understand how to tade this or what sense this makes at all.

Hey Upthrust,

I was like you a couple of months (4-5) ago so i will attempt to explain...

Ive been following DB's writings, blogs, etc for the last 5-6 months...

Db, if i am mistaken anywhere please dont hesitate to correct me...

First off, just try and draw the boxes around areas of congestion where you see alot of trades taking place; back and forth areas.... Then find the midpoint of the range/box... You will find that the top, bottom and midpoint areas of previous trading days/ranges/boxes tend to become areas of importance later on... They will at most times be either tentative support or resistance in future days...


Do that and then (until you being to see it) just sit and watch the price action as it comes close to those areas.... When i first did that it was a moment of enlightenment... Midpoint areas really do seem to have significance... Watch as they either act as support in a strong market or act as resistance in a weak market....

You see alot of boxes in DB's post but you only need to pay attention to the boxes/midpoints/S/R that are in the range the price is currently in! The rest will be useful later on if price ever reaches that area in the future.... Its simply there as a reference.....

Now, again, dont make the mistake of thinking that bc you drew the line there that anything will necessarily happen there... As DB says again and again, simply be available (ie. pay attention to what happens).... Look again at the charts DB posted... Notice that the midpoint almost always acts as support or resistance or sort of a "stepping stone" in a climbing market and vice versa.... I have literally seen prices come within a tick of the midpoint and jump up or fly down.....

Trading is really nothing more than psychology.. Humans have memories, when they buy at a certain price and price goes up and they make money they are elated... If price comes down again to that area they see it as a bargain and "tend" to buy again at that area... That is why support or resistance tends to work.... Again, remember NONE of this is set in stone; after all when trading you really are just trying to understand the most unpredictable beast of all; human behavior... The key is, It just has a higher probability than pointing at any other point on the chart and buying or selling there......

Again, these boxes help give you context... If its a trending day then any one of those lines can act as S/R... So, look at the big picture first to see if the trend is up or down... Then decide how you wanna enter OR if you wanna enter at all....

You gotta understand that this method/view point is simply a way to lower your risk! Like any business there are no guarantees... For instance say you open a bar; are you guaranteed to make money? NO! But, if you do your homework; find the location with the most foot traffic, get the hottest waitresses in town and serve the best beer in town and market the living crap out of it.... You have a better shot at making money.... This is nothing more than a probabilities game... Again like any business its all about probablities... If you do your homework you tip the odds in your favor...

Now, all of this without a system and rules does no good... As per the above example its like running a business and not knowing how to manage your inventory... If you give away too much free food (lose too much) you go BROKE!

A couple of months ago i used to draw all these boxes and find the S/R and then be too afraid to pull the trigger so i would SEE that the price was bouncing off support but i would say " i will wait just a little longer till it proves itself"... By that time i would find myself in the middle of the range then freak out when i found it retraced and i would almost always get out with a loss and then it would ride back up again with out me.... I didn't understand the nature of retracments and how they worked... Read DB's post on "Riding the Wyckoff Wave".

My System:

Again this is my system and you have to see what works for you... The key is consistency... Follow your rules, ALWAYS!

Now, i learned to use the TICK to help me... If i see the price at support and tick is way negative like -500 or so (meaning the market has lots of stocks having a downtick) and the price is still hanging on i view that as strength and i go ahead and enter at support with a tight stop (perhaps 1/2 - 3/4 point) below support...

Same thing when im shorting... If price for instance opens up underneath resistance and we are in a recognizable down trend and the TICK is above +200-500+ (lots of stocks having an uptick) and the price just doesnt seem to budge up then i view that as weakness and take the short (again with a tight stop above resistance)...

I view the market as opposing forces a push/pull between the bulls and bears and the TICK as a crowd cheering/egging them on... If the crowd is cheering really hard and the bulls just dont have it in them to push up through then most likely as soon as the crowd stops cheering the bulls will get tired and let go of the rope and bears will take charge and conversely vice versa....

Next is trade managment:

Once im in a trade i do my very best to manage via trendlines and let natural retracements (wyckoff waves) take their course... I am still working on that part of my trading... It takes development/restraint to see yourself up 4-5 points on the ES and let it slip down to 3 points But, i am still developing my strategy for how to deal with that... I am working on no fear; cut your losses early and let your profits run! Cliche, i know... But, it takes time to internalize it and to disassociate yourself from your profits/losses...

With this method i really feel the key is not being afraid to go in at support or resistance.. If you miss it, wait for another setup... If your wrong get out early... Dont get caught in the middle (at least for me).... I have been keeping track (a log) and every time i lost money it was bc i didnt follow my own rules.. I got cocky and thought i understood it all and entered farther from support or resistance... Each and every time i got screwed!

Weird thing is that i tried trading with all the oscillators, stochastic's, etc.. Buy when the red line crosses the black line, sell when this falls below that, blah blah blah... I could never understand them... It was like being in class and someone giving you the answers, you never knew how to do it yourself.. You tend to become dependent; and i don't like being dependent on anything... I like understanding concepts, not just being told what to do... To me, they were all derivatives of the thing i should be watching... PRICE.... I tend to learn by internalizing concepts and after watching this for several months and reading DB's posts over and over this way just started making more sense.....

Again, without risk there is no reward, just find the way that works best for you and like any good business plan; work on minimizing your risk... You can never eliminate risk, but you can definitely lower it....

Again, i am still learning so if i made a mistake somewhere; someone (Db or anyone with more experience than I) dont hesitate to correct me..... This is simply my opinion/interpretation of Wyckoff/DB's teachings....

-Karim0028