[Upthrust86]

Originally Posted by DbPhoenix »

As to the first two being "OK", all four present the same information.

That was "OK in hindsight," the operative word bring hindsight.

[DbPhoenix]

Originally Posted by Upthrust86 »

That was "OK in hindsight," the operative word being hindsight.

And, as I said, all four present the same information. In any case, if you're interested, here's what you should have for today, at minimum. If you don't know in advance what you're going to do at each point, then you're not prepared.

[DbPhoenix]

Price finds support at B, resistance at C.

Preparation, Execution, Review.

[DbPhoenix]

I'm copying this here because (a) it's consistent with what I've been saying about these boxes and (b) it's brief and to the point.

Originally Posted by Hlm »

The following is a basic idea of how one can look at MP to get an idea of future market conditions. I will try to make it simple and to the point. To get more detailed it is best for the newbie to get dirty with that screen time.

Market opens inside VA:
One looks for a two-sided range bound day until we exit the VA and find interest. If we test one side with no interest we expect price to return to the POC if not completely to the other side of VA to test for interest.

Market opens outside VA:
One looks for a test of the VA without any interest. At this point we anticipate that price will continue in the direction away from the VA looking for the new VA (many times behing held up by previous Value Areas).

Confirmation:
One of the best ways to confirm the above is by using Market Internals (e.g. TRIN). If we punch outside the VA but the Market Internals are not confirming the move one should be very cautious. Many times this will result in a move back inside the VA at which time we would look for a possible 80% rule to the other side. The opposite is true as well. If we are wiggling around inside the VA and Market Internals are strengthening in one direction, we would look to trade the move outside the VA in that direction.

Volatility Outside VA:
One can usually estimate the volatility by looking at A) Market Internals and B) previous Value Areas. If we exit one VA just to enter another one with two-sided internals you can expect some consolidation. One should also take note of significant highs, lows, and consolidation areas (intraday MP areas) both in rths and overnight.

Again, this is VERY BASIC information. In my opinion the best way to learn MP is to throw up the volume by price (or the pretty letters if you feel so inclined) and tpo lines and just study-study-study the chart. This will also allow you to start getting the feel for how the different distributions affect the above.

I do have one small quibble about market internals, or at least the TICKQ. I find quite often that if the T is taking off and price is just sitting there, price is more likely to go the opposite direction, at which point the T will follow. But this is of course not a sure thing.

[Hlm]

Originally Posted by DbPhoenix »

I do have one small quibble about market internals, or at least the TICKQ. I find quite often that if the T is taking off and price is just sitting there, price is more likely to go the opposite direction, at which point the T will follow. But this is of course not a sure thing.

I agree, I do not use (haven't for awhile) TICKQ as a market internal. Actually overall I have gotten away from using any of the Market Internals even though I still keep a couple up and take notice of their movement. However, that is how I started when I was learning Market Profile. The key is to find an overall market strength indicator that you are comfortable with and works with your strategy. For some it might be a larger Market Profile time frame while for others it may be a simple stochastic. Many Market Profile traders use a hybrid type system. They look for certain momentum setups around the upper and lower value areas to protect their position while the market decides if it will indeed continue the move. Enter on a smaller time frame and exit on the larger. Well...I don't want to get off topic. I guess that was a long way around to just say that I agree with your "quibble".

[DbPhoenix]

You're not off-topic at all. In fact, I went into some detail on TICKQ divergences in the Dailies section of my blog, and it's the only one I use. I agree that one should find something that "works" with his strategy, become familiar with how it behaves, then trust it. Since the T isn't massaged (like, for example, the TRIN), I prefer that.

As to MP, I don't use it either as such. But the auction market theory behind it, since it's so consistent with what I've learned studying Wyckoff, makes trading a lot easier.

[DbPhoenix]

The following chart was posted last Sunday:

Let's see how it all worked out (same chart but drawn with Sierra):

Monday and Tuesday, price tested R (C). Thursday it bounced off the midpoint of the lower trading range (D) and tested R (C) again. Friday it dropped to S (E).

The advantage being, again, that all of this can be plotted in advance, saving one from having to peer fixedly at his screen for however long looking for a particular type of bar.

For the coming week, the setup's the same, keeping in mind that the interface between the two ranges, at 1960, may take on added importance.

[DbPhoenix]

Originally Posted by DbPhoenix »

For the coming week, the setup's the same, keeping in mind that the interface between the two ranges, at 1960, may take on added importance.

And as it turned out.....