[DbPhoenix]

Originally Posted by dla133 »

I have been trading Funds for over 5 years and have learned a great lesson from Bill ONeil. He advises bying a solid common growth fund and then sit and wait, don't think just sit. I did this right through the bear market and put more money in as the market went down. As the market collapsed I remained positive and kept telling myself that this IS the time to invest and NOT run away scared. Over the last 12 months I am now up 15%. This is where 95% of my trading capital is. I have tried to use the CANSLIM method of investing and so far have failed. I always seem to get stopped out. My opinion is that IBD is great for helping you find good strong fundermentals on companies however the technical side for me is a little too bit like a dummies guide. I read a book on Jessie Livermore and was intrigued by his pivot point theory, however I can't seem to find too much on exactly how he did this. I then came to hear of Wyckoff and have started reading about his trading style. I feel that what he had to say about the markets makes sense, as does CANSLIM when it comes to the fundermentals. So my conclusion is I should use IBD to find companies with strong fundermentals and use Wyckoff to trade this stocks. I am just wondering if anybody else out there does this? DbPhoenix and gassah please keep up the great work you are doing on this forum as well as all you other posters out there too many to mention.

While I am learning this method which I know will take years and not months I have decided to invest in ETF's rather than individual stocks so I can still benefit over the next few years from this severe bear market. Do you think ETF's could be traded using Wyckoff or am I better to take the buy and hold approach like my Funds?

Thanks for reading this post and hopefully when I get more experienced and start to show some individual trading success I will be able to guide other inexperienced traders like myself in the future.

Cheers
Lee

Funny you should ask, since I was a big CSer from the late 80s. But when we got to '00, it was clear to me that CS left a lot to be desired, at least by that point. Many reasons, most of which are irrelevant to this forum. Suffice it to say that if you have been less than successful with CS, it most likely is not your fault.

Your biggest hurdle may be resolving the conflict between long-term B&H and short-term trading. If you've already done that, then understand that Wyckoff has absolutely nothing to do with fundamentals. It is purely technical. If you want to trade stocks and use CS as a preliminary filter, there's no particular conflict there. You may find, however, that the stocks with those great fundamentals are difficult to buy from a technical viewpoint once you've found them. ETFs may be far more appropriate to your style and your goals. If you are at all unsure of what your goals are, that should be addressed before going further.

As to whether it takes you months or years to learn this depends partly on how much time you're willing to devote to it and how much you have to unlearn. If you don't "know" much that is actually untrue, then you may learn this approach without much trouble at all. Since you are oriented toward fundamentals, one of your biggest hurdles may be breaking the habit of asking "why" price is doing this or that. While discussing the why can make for interesting chat, it has nothing to do with the trading decision that must be made.

Since you haven't posted here for almost a year, I don't know how much time you've spent with the material. If you've read the stickies, then you may want to move straight to the application. If you haven't read the stickies, then start there.

[dla133]

Thanks for the replies guys. I want my trading to take a longer term view point if that is possible for the following reason. I want to make sensible investments with strong long term probability of success. Can Wyckoff help me identify the major moves? For example the financial sector as we all know has seen a tremendous sell off. Can Wyckoff help determine the time to make a trade once the long term trend has shifted? With ETF's I can move from sector to sector within the market when the odds of success in each sector turn to my favour. I suppose I am looking for a tool to help me identify when this is.

DB you mention in your post "Your biggest hurdle may be resolving the conflict between long-term B&H and short-term trading. "

I don't want to be a pure buy and hold trader, however at this moment I don't feel I have the skill to move my money in and out of the market better than buy and hold. For example if I had left my money in the fund for the entire 5 years then I would have returned another 100% on my capital. Would Wyckoff help me with this?

Maybe what I should be asking is do you think successfull Wyckoff students could do better than buy and hold?

Cheers
Lee

[Gringo]

Hello dla133,

To me it appears you don't want to be hopping in and out of market and want to have longer time objectives for your buying and selling.

Wyckoff is quite time independent and his methods can be used for longer time frames. The problem is once you get used to his way of thinking I am not certain if you'll be able to look at the market the same way, especially buy and hold.

I have tried IBD and CANSLIM and on paper it's not bad and possibly better than a lot of other investment philosophies out there. I have gone through Livermore, Darvas, Loeb, Graham, Schwagger, Murphy, Magee, Pring, Bulkowski, Nison, Lynch, Elder, Tharp, Richards (Turtles) and too many others to name. The end result after all this wandering in the desert by chance led to Wyckoff. Perhaps it was going through all the above that helped me recognize genius. The genius in simplicity and independence. I know this is my promised land.

There is not an obsession with cup with handle, double bottom, head and shoulders, flat bases, high tight flags, saucer bases, or 3 week tight formations and the like. You'll more likely see the flow of prices as it is rather than judge things based on what formation is possibly in the making. Most formations look perfect only in hindsight as you may discover if you are lucky.

It's not the sword but the master that matters as the saying goes. But having the right sword can still be helpful. For me Wckoff is that sword.
Market on the other hand is the ultimate master, and this master will find your investing and psychological weakness and strike where it hurts the most and repeat the process until you change or go broke.

If you are up to the task and willing to undertake these risk you'll find many who'll guide you here. In the end it's your journey and only you can chose to take that first step.

If you are enamored with my experience and knowledge, take heed; for I am still a humble student trying to find my footing, and still struggling for consistent gains.

Some questions for you to consider:

1) How much time are you willing to spend on learning and unlearning?
2) How much time are you willing to devote on daily or weekly analysis?
3) Do you really want to be dealing with markets or would you feel better off giving your money to a professional?
4) How long do you think it will take you to figure this all out?

[dla133]

Hi Gringo,

Thanks for the response and guidence.

1) How much time are you willing to spend on learning and unlearning?
However long it takes is the simple answer. I have a quote printed out which sits above my computer screen on the wall by Winston Churchill.

Never, Never, Never give up.

The way I see it is that I have found several ways so far that didn't work for one reason or another, and I am one step closer to finding out what does work.

2) How much time are you willing to devote on daily or weekly analysis?

I normally spend around 2 hours a day when I get home from work in the week and approx 6 - 8 hours at wekends.

3) Do you really want to be dealing with markets or would you feel better off giving your money to a professional?

This is the whole reason for me wanting to learn to trade my own funds intelligently. I know people who have used professionals who have then lost money. The only thing they learned was that the professional had a bad run. They learned nouthing about the market. I want to learn from my mistakes and take responsibility for my own financial future.

4) How long do you think it will take you to figure this all out?

I don't think I will ever figure this out completely, does anybody? I just want to see improvements with consistancy over 1 year to the next.

[jfw215]

Hi,

Attached is a daily chart of GLD and Dollar (UUP). As you can see in gold, we just gapped above a huge resistance level on high volume. I am thinking of buying gold if I also see the dollar break below its intermediate support level (the blue line). I am curious to hear what other aspects you guys will look at if you were to look at this trade.

Thanks

JW

[suriNotes]

Hi JW,

Here is GLD/UUP Daily Charts that I watch...
Also, see some of my posts 'Gold Chart' on TL forums.

Regards,
Suri

Originally Posted by jfw215 »

Hi,

Attached is a daily chart of GLD and Dollar (UUP). As you can see in gold, we just gapped above a huge resistance level on high volume. I am thinking of buying gold if I also see the dollar break below its intermediate support level (the blue line). I am curious to hear what other aspects you guys will look at if you were to look at this trade.

Thanks

JW

[jfw215]

thanks Suri. What scenarios are you going to play on GLD?

[suriNotes]

Hi JW,

Here is the Gold breakout on 9/2/09 (Symmetric Triangle and ABC Bullish)
from 980 to 1033 and possibly to 1067...

Regards,
Suri

Originally Posted by jfw215 »

thanks Suri. What scenarios are you going to play on GLD?