[DbPhoenix]

It's debatable. Depends in part on whether you consider the upmove at the end of November to be a swing, or whether -- because of the sideways movement at the beginning of December -- you consider the entire move from late November to mid-December to be one move.

Either way, the trendline has clearly been broken, and given the angle and extent of the downmove, a pause is not unreasonable. But, as you know, a change in trend is not a reversal.

[za_xc03]

Hi DB I had email to you to purchase ebook ....wish you be able to reply back ... I also eager request for an opinion of you with regard to my proposal to buy book as below .....be provided does not require or were those must added more apply am being notified :-

1) Study in tape reading
2) Tape reading and market tactic
3) Stock market technique 1
4) Stock market technique 2
5) When to sell, how to buy & the nature of risk - mamis,justin

Thank you for your help

[DbPhoenix]

Originally Posted by za_xc03 »

Hi DB I had email to you to purchase ebook ....wish you be able to reply back ... I also eager request for an opinion of you with regard to my proposal to buy book as below .....be provided does not require or were those must added more apply am being notified :-

1) Study in tape reading
2) Tape reading and market tactic
3) Stock market technique 1
4) Stock market technique 2
5) When to sell, how to buy & the nature of risk - mamis,justin

Thank you for your help

I have responded to your email.

As for Studies in Tape Reading, this is available for free as an attachment to the first stickie.

Tape Reading and Market Tactics is also good, though not as detailed as Wyckoff's book.

None of the books you've listed are "required", though I strongly recommend The Nature of Risk.

Before spending money, however, I suggest you study the stickies to this forum as well as Volume Studies. The Most-Thanked Posts thread will also be helpful. If you do decide to spend money, Stock Speculation Classics includes Stock Market Technique #2 as well as Tape Reading and Market Tactics along with 22 other works for $23.95 plus $4 shipping.

[innovation]

Db,

I have recently been going through the PDF that you have kindly made available of W's day by day analysis of the NY Times Av in 1931 and also following the "Trading Like Wyckoff" thread.

It has taken me some days to move through all the material and I have several questions about W's analysis and some of his nomenclature:


When discussing initial buying opportunities after the decline to Dec 17th he talks about the Dec 29th as the point at which the Av is 'on the Spring Board':

"Our next buying opportunity is on December 29th when the market completes three days of lower support but the closing prices on each of these days are between 140 and 141, showing that the selling pressure is losing its force, since the net result of these three days' pulling and hauling is to leave the average almost unchanged following a considerable reaction. At the same time, lower volume on the reaction from December 18th's high, compared with the volume of the mid-December decline, confirms the inference that selling pressure is losing its force; buying power is overcoming it, as it now appears that the market has completed a typical secondary reaction (see previous Footnote) which has the effect of broadening the zone of support around the 136-140 level to sustain a proportionately more substantial advance than the first recovery, we either buy on this reaction if we missed our first opportunity, or add to our holdings; with stops on these new positions, as before, under the danger point, that is, the lows of December 17th. The average is now 'on the springboard'."

By stating that the Av is 'on the springboard' on the 29th is he surmising that the majority of the vol over the 3 days has occurred in a tight range ala your Caja Famosas (say 139 to 142)?

How is it clear that this is a successful test on the 29th? (it becomes clear the next day but couldn't the constriction have continued for another day or so?)

Why would the action on the 23rd not have been viewed as a test with a substantial reaction of the lows on increased vol could this not have been seen as the end of the secondary reaction? (Is it because the true test is at the bottom of a gradual 'rounding off' of the decent whereas the pivot on the 23rd is more climactic?)

Also is the action on the 20th another example of a 'springboard' or more specifically a 'hinge' indicating the reduction in buying pressure and increase in selling pressure? (reduced price volatility with sustained effort ~2M vol & lower close)


At the top of the ensuing rally culminating in the B.C on the 9th he writes:

"For the next several days, until January 9th, the market makes further progress on the bull side, recording 156½ on that day; but observe that the closing figures on the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th are all within a range of about one point. That means the market made no upward progress as a net result of four days’ activities following the 6th. The daily volume shows a tendency to taper off, which may mean a lessening of demand at the top of the swing to January 8th. This conclusion is partly confirmed by the shortening of the upward thrusts from the 3rd to the 7th, indicating that it was hard work advancing the market from l5O to 155."

I don't see how the volume is tapering off, it looks to me to be oscillating either side of 2M (5th, 6th, 7th, 8th). How then do we reach the conclusion that there is a lessening of demand? (the fact price is not advancing?)


On finding the end of the subsequent swing low:

"On the 16th, the closing is nearly at the high point of the day -- a bullish indication which is the reverse of the bearish indication on the 9th. This is our first sign that the reaction is nearly over. (*) So here we have a new buying opportunity in expectation that the advance will be resumed. (**) Further confirmation of this comes in higher support on the 17th and in an almost complete drying-up in volume on a dip to the same low level on the 19th."

If closing near the high of the day is the only criterion for a bullish indication and even a buying opportunity then wouldn't two days prior (14th) be the 1st day to meet it? By buying opportunity do you think he means 'be looking out for confirmation to take long positions' as opposed to 'buy on close of the 16th'?

I have lots more comments in the margin of my print out which I would love to get a more experienced view on but I didn't want to overwhelm with too many questions (maybe to late ), especially if they stem from a fundamental oversight on my behalf.
There is obviously a subtlety to this that is currently eluding me but I have already begun to see the benefits of understanding the dynamic of buying and selling pressure and their net result on price already.

Oh, last one. This one specifically relates to Bearbull's thread:

When dealing with a pause in the decent in Sept he writes:

"Volume decreases to under 1,500,000 on the 26th and 28th, but in view of the market's recent bearish action this looks more like a swing to a dead center preceding new weakness, than diminishing force of supply. "

What does W mean by "a dead center" in this context ? - How would you differentiate between this and a potentially successful test of the S.C low on the 21st? Is a test ruled out as the Vol on the 25th remained high whilst the low was almost matched?
I am trying to understand the nature of tests of potential support/resistance - what is potentially valid and then when to determine at the earliest point confirmation of a successful test.

Cheers & Happy New Year

Matt

[aunikstock]

hi,
I dont know if this is the right place to post, but this place is so good to people interested in wyckoff, I cant help myself. I am a stock trader at bangladesh stock market. Its a long way from nyse, but who cares, we are on the internet!

I have been trying to apply wyckoff in the market I trade, but one thing I am finding difficult is that the traditional chart whether line, candle or bar has much more information I need. I want a chart that highlights information of volume and price at as dbphoenix calls "hinges" and important support resistant points and that is not drawn based on timeframe but rather price movement.

I use amibroker, so I will post afl post here. But if moderators think the thread is useless, then please feel free to delete it.

[DbPhoenix]

Why not? So you're looking for the same type of information that you'd get from point & figure but with volume?

[omit46]

Originally Posted by DbPhoenix »

Why not? So you're looking for the same type of information that you'd get from point & figure but with volume?

yes, yes, exactly right on. I really gotta work on my communication skill
its PF chart with "celebrity" volumes, the ones/groups that stand out whether big or small at important price points although at I am not sure how to define "important" price and volume points.

[DbPhoenix]

As far as important price points go, the stickies should be of help, particularly the 4th one. The "Cajas" and Support & Resistance threads should also be of help. As far as defining "important" volume, that will be a problem since you won't likely be able to do it on a discretionary basis (that is, judgements of "important" volume are made on a discretionary basis, but you won't be able to incorporate that into a mechanical system).

This pdf on volume may also be useful.