[kuky969]

DB
Of course I agree I like trade better break from base and retrace to the base but I like if I know with big probability which way break will be in advance .

For example yesterdays ES U8

5 min chart shows base in red lines and green ellipse is for me revers bars on resistence . Important for me is bigger volume on second bar as first bar .

I use 1 min chart too and situation is on second chart
In 1 min chart is same base as 5 min chart.
Area num.1 –-descend volume
Area 2 –- rising volume ...in this moment I thought that would break UP
Area 3 –- again uncertainty
Area 4 – price didnt make higher high
Area 5 – break TL on higher volume , almost certainty and I expect break from base down

I use 500 V chart too and this break of TL is on very short time (green rectangle on 3rd chart) and this is important to me.
I would like ask you for your opinion about my thinking about market please.

I think it was relatively simply situation and not always are the same simply situation. I will find some situation with example of typical springboard (as you explainded in book) and I will post some chart.
Thank for your time and patience.

[DbPhoenix]

Clearly, you have put a great deal of thought into this. It shows. And as for the "relatively simple situation", there's nothing wrong with waiting for the relatively simple situation. Would you rather make money the easy way, or try to make it the hard way and coincidentally increase your chances of losing it instead?

So, taking this step by step, beginning with the first chart,

1. What does the lack of trading activity on the attempt at 12:15 to break out the range tell you?

2. What does the immediate and indisputable failure on the next bar tell you?

3.What does the continuing lack of trading activity on that bar tell you?

4. What does the increase in trading activity (which is greater than any trading activity up to that point) on the way down toward the 12:30 bar tell you?

And you don't need all the lines and indicators to see any of this. In fact, they may prevent you from seeing what might otherwise be plain.

[rsi]

I have a question.

In case of some stocks, downtrend persists for very long period (may be for years altogether). In such cases, there may not be weak holders at the end of such prolonged period. It may be impossible to see a "selling climax". I mean to say large volume wide range down bars as such. In some cases it may even move up even without witnessing any accumulation phase. I am attaching charts herebelow to show what I mean. Of course, this stock has not move up yet.

First chart is weekly.



http://img127.imageshack.us/my.php?image=weeklyra4.png

Note the prolonged downturn from 275 to nearabout 40 over such a long period.

Now the daily (of couse some may argue that we are witnessing accumulation right now)

Daily chart



http://img398.imageshack.us/my.php?image=dailyra7.png

See another chart



http://img398.imageshack.us/my.php?image=weekly2kw6.png

Here stock moved from around 170 to 27 in between April 2006 to May 2007. We did not see any accumulation phase at all. Selling climax is also not visible.

So my question is how can we detect end of downtrend (or may be markup phase) in such cases?
Twisting the question slightly, how can we see the end of uptrend in the absence of buying climax and distribution?
Thanks in advance and regards

[rsi]

Here is the first chart mentioned in my last post





Hope chart appears at least this post

[rsi]

Sorry. I donot know why charts are not appearing inspite of uploading them to imageshack and pasting the link using "insert image" option

Please see the charts from the imageshack itself, links of which I have given in my original post

Sorry for the inconvenience and trouble caused by me.

[NAVEEVIa]

DB,
when looking at a PV relation in a base to find out whether accumulation or distribution is taking place, why do we look for high volume on upsides or when at upper limit of base & low volume for downside in Accumulation & vice versa for distribution.

Please refer the rectangle in chart attached from 10:35to 13:20

[DbPhoenix]

Originally Posted by rsi »

I have a question.

In case of some stocks, downtrend persists for very long period (may be for years altogether). In such cases, there may not be weak holders at the end of such prolonged period. It may be impossible to see a "selling climax". I mean to say large volume wide range down bars as such. In some cases it may even move up even without witnessing any accumulation phase. I am attaching charts herebelow to show what I mean. Of course, this stock has not move up yet.

First chart is weekly.

http://img127.imageshack.us/my.php?image=weeklyra4.png

Note the prolonged downturn from 275 to nearabout 40 over such a long period.

Now the daily (of couse some may argue that we are witnessing accumulation right now)

Daily chart

http://img398.imageshack.us/my.php?image=dailyra7.png

See another chart

http://img398.imageshack.us/my.php?image=weekly2kw6.png

Here stock moved from around 170 to 27 in between April 2006 to May 2007. We did not see any accumulation phase at all. Selling climax is also not visible.

So my question is how can we detect end of downtrend (or may be markup phase) in such cases?
Twisting the question slightly, how can we see the end of uptrend in the absence of buying climax and distribution?
Thanks in advance and regards

You make a number of statements but ask only one question, and the answer-- without considering trendlines -- is that there is a selling climax, a technical rally, a test, and a rally above the last swing high. Reverse for a downtrend. I can't apply this to your charts because it's next to impossible for me to see the volume on them, plus they're too scrunched. However, there does appear to be a selling climax on your third chart in March '07.

[DbPhoenix]

Originally Posted by NAVEEVIa »

DB,
when looking at a PV relation in a base to find out whether accumulation or distribution is taking place, why do we look for high volume on upsides or when at upper limit of base & low volume for downside in Accumulation & vice versa for distribution.

What did you read that left this with you?