[DbPhoenix]

Originally Posted by ftip »

Here is a good hidden treasure on Teresa Lo's site yes hard site to navigate but still contains much real world valuable market info than 'guru fluff' -- Justin Mamis paper called "The Philosophy of Tops"

And back again.

Here's a link to the same pdf without all the password business:

http://trendvue.com/doc/4770

There are also 2000 and 2004 interviews (this is the old TLo site, created in part as a new location for the Yahoo group).

[habi]

Originally Posted by DbPhoenix »

In a V formation, price never stays anywhere long enough to provide these zones, and one is equally likely to find a trade at point A as point B or C or any other point. Since the ES has reached that top zone twice now, the resistance it provides is a bit more formidable than a single point. But whether we make a trip all the way down to the bottom is anybody's guess. If you'll look closely at this particular chart, what appears to be a V has some of those value areas or consolidations within it. 2004 was spent going more or less sideways, then the first half of 2005, then the second half of that year, then a little more than half of 2006. Each of these represents a potential waystation. We're at the first of them now.

Yes, I see this consolidations and we have one on the bottom 02/03 and on the top 00 too. Most important thing I would point out was that we needed double the time to go up than down. In my understanding, the downmove was stronger/faster than the upmove. And now, after only three (or five in the second attempt) months we arrived already in the range from where we went up more than one year. So, at least on the first move down, the speed is increasing again.

I was searching for reasons, if we will break to the up- or downside from the range since January, but I can't favor one side. I was then looking on this monthly chart and came to the conclusion, that it don't look nice at this time.
To enhance this impression, we should be able to break to the upside.

[DbPhoenix]

Downmoves will generally take less time than upmoves, partly due to the cascade effect and partly due to the retail trader's nearly always entering too late. And the fear of standing in front of an avalanche is stronger than the fear of "missing out" on a move. And traders do tend to procrastinate in any case, which is one reason why they enter so late.

In any case, forget about looking for reasons, at least with this particular approach.

[DbPhoenix]

Our "Wyckoff short" is about 25 pts in the black here, and we're approaching long-term (back to January) support.

[Tannism]

I thought I would try to apply Db's eyeball methods post to a chart to give me something to follow. That seems to be the best way for me to get the hang of something.

I picked INTC because I think it is reporting today. Maybe it will move.

TannisM

[DbPhoenix]

You wouldn't be the Tannis from the "old" days, would you?

[Tannism]

Why? Recognize my work?

Hi. Db. I had some chocolate for you over Easter, but didn't know where to find you. Great to "see" you.

The old days...1998.

[DbPhoenix]

Originally Posted by Tannism »

Why? Recognize my work?

Hi. Db. I had some chocolate for you over Easter, but didn't know where to find you. Great to "see" you.

The old days...1998.

Ah, 1998. LTCM. Windows on Wall Street (loved that software). As for finding me, I can be googled now.

Good to see you again. I thought you'd be a millionaire quant by now.

As for INTC, here's the way I'd do it (please come up with something other than "eyeball method"; makes me think of that guy in Pirates of the Caribbean).

The problem here with this particular timeframe is that the VAP bars are thrown off by that consolidation off to the far left between 21 and 23 (yours are better). But even without the VAP bars, it's relatively easy to see where most of the action has taken place.

In a tighter timeframe,

you've got this. I was going to say that there was evidence of accumulation here, but that would be hindsight now that the breakout has taken place (assuming it succeeds). Do you see the accumulation as well?

P.S. Forgot to add the midpoint on the lower chart, but you have it.