[sevensa]

Originally Posted by humdesggg »

Well Sevensa

You are bold enough to meet my expectations. I view this thread as an educational thread and therefore, will leftside, hindsight analysis has limitations, it has tremendous educational value for me. These patterns repeat themselves again and again, and therefore knowing my shortcomings on hindsight, helps me to improve on them. Living in east africa, i dont have the resources to pay 4k for a tradeguider seminar. Plus I lack the time resources to trade fulltime vsa patterns and upload my bar by bar review. You will remember i have hinted for a lieve vsa room, but the responses have been varied.

Your comments are like a goldmine to me. I can reflect on what may be divergence of opinions between us, and obviously, since u are a veteran, i have to give the benefit of doubt to you. You may have access to more VSA resources or might have paid more attention by reading MTM or Untoled Secrets more times than me.

I am 200% appreciative of your comments and will take the afternoon to look at them and study the divergence between us.

The lifeline I mentioned is real and there is indeed a random contest where u trade futures. VSA, I believe, is a solid method for trading successfully for 1 hour period using even the noise on 1m. the advantage of 1m, at least for me, is closer stops.

Thank you for your kind words. I am by no means an expert and know just enough to get by and to do something that works for me. Also don't assume that when my view disagree with yours, that I am right and you are wrong. There are many ways to be "right" and you don't have to do what I, or anyone else is doing. Just do what make sense and feel right to you. If the trades you called out make sense to you and is something you can detect in real time, then by all means don't change your view of them just because I wouldn't have selected them for my trading patterns.

[Eiger]

Follow-up on using the Background

I mentioned over the weekend in my last post above that supply was present at a confluence of resistance and that a gap down on the open today leading the market lower was something we could anticipate. The market did gap lower at the open, indicating further weakness. A patient waiting until the market retested the last swing high of the overnight session led to a nice UT on the 5-minute chart and good short entry. I would now anticipate the market moving down first to today's low and (assuming demand to be absent at this level) then to the obvious support level at A.

Framing the background in this manner helps you trade better today. Seeing weakness appear in the background, anticipating different likely scenarios, and then seeing one of those scenarios take place allows you to pull the trigger on a choice trade when you see the VSA setup occur. Simple, straightforward, and profitable.

Hope this is helpful,

Eiger

[Eiger]

Follow-up

As anticipated, the market fell back to the low of the day, though there wasn't enough supply present to take it lower. Again, this is using the background, including the various levels of obvious support & resistance along with the notion of anticipation rather than prediction as a way to view the market.

Hope this is helpful,

Eiger

[MANTRA]

hello all

charts from today

BACKGROUND: I expected higher pricess in accordance with the reasons below
60 min. TF: market made new low, but was stopped on Support level
15 min. TF: bar 1 - high volume, close in the middle of the bar, next two bars no supply
5 min. TF: bars between bar 1 & 2 no selling presure

bar before bar A - pushing through supply
bar A- high volume, close off the high
bar 3- test bar, did not take this trade because of bar A
bar 4 & 5- high volume closes off the highs
bar 6&7 - tests - I did not take this trade because of bars 4 & 5

Once I see the bars like A, 4, 5 I always expect change of the trend or congestion...this is my biggest problem...can someone advise?

[kuky969]

Hi Mantra
Yes I have same problem ,yesterdays afternoon uptrend on ES 5 min didnt give me any substantial VSA signal to entry long . I just waited when it rebounce from some resistence and give me signal short. I was very surprised that ES regain all losses in afternoon. Eiger did you make some trade ???

[Eiger]

Originally Posted by MANTRA »

hello all

charts from today

BACKGROUND: I expected higher pricess in accordance with the reasons below
60 min. TF: market made new low, but was stopped on Support level
15 min. TF: bar 1 - high volume, close in the middle of the bar, next two bars no supply
5 min. TF: bars between bar 1 & 2 no selling presure

bar before bar A - pushing through supply
bar A- high volume, close off the high
bar 3- test bar, did not take this trade because of bar A
bar 4 & 5- high volume closes off the highs
bar 6&7 - tests - I did not take this trade because of bars 4 & 5

Once I see the bars like A, 4, 5 I always expect change of the trend or congestion...this is my biggest problem...can someone advise?

You are able to identify lots of the VSA indications. Nice job. The next step is to put these together a little more coherently and frame the market.

Here are some ideas to consider:

Background - 60-min chart:

Note the area circled in black. It is at the top of the trend (though we know it is at the top only in hindsight). Compare this to the area circled in green. They look very similar, don't they? There are very key differences, however.

Take a close look at the bars in the green circle area. Whenever price dipped lower, it immediately rebounded. In most cases, volume came in on these bars (green arrows). Professional money was buying anytime the market dipped lower. We know this from the volume. Lower prices were being rejected. The background was very bullish at this point.

Now, look at the black circle area. Although it looks similar to the casual eye, it is very different. Note that wide spread bars are no longer dipping lower, closing higher. They stay on the lows and volume comes in. This is supply present. I noted this weakness in the ES a couple of days ago. Larger interests were unloading into the buying until the buying was finally exhausted.

Also on the 60-minute, the circled area is a distribution area and represents a "cause" of selling in that area, the "effect" of which is likely to be lower prices to some degreee. That degree can be estimated via S/R levels and a point & figure chart. We are seeing that cause unfold now.

So, the overall background is down. But there will, of course, be rallies intraday, but short-lived "bear traps" designed to attract buyers. Taking long positions with this background in mind are best kept to limited objectives.

15-min chart:

You identified some stopping volume at 1 on your chart. The very next bar was a Test, and the bar after that was unable to fall lower, so the odds were good for a rally.

5-minute chart:

The stopping volume on the 15-minute chart was climactic on the 5-min at 1 with a Spring following at 2. So, we are looking at a rally of some degree.

Price drifted up in a small uptrend with higher bottoms, and then tested (T) before going up. At Q, the market rallies above the climactic bar at 1, an indication demand is in control. In the green circle area note that each time the market dips lower, it closes back on its highs -- this is the same behavior we saw in the green circle area on the 60-minute chart. The market is always repeating itself, it is just that the intensities always vary. Note also that price is holding it's gains on top of the last congestion area (resistence then turns to support now). So, we are bullish.

Price rallies through the green circle congestion at R and then hits some supply at A. We know it is supply because of the volume and rather poor close. The very next bar (#3) is a Test, falling lower than the low at A and closing on it's highs on light volume. This test respects the new support level and indicates that the supply seen on A isn't significant. I like these indications for entry. Next bar is up.

Bars 4 & 5 are up on good spread, but the high volume and poor close show supply. This is the highest volume since the rally began and indicates a portential climax at this point and danger to the bulls. Bar 6 is No Demand further adding to the weakness now emerging. But the bar following 6 dips lower and has a good close and the next bar, 7, is a Test, so we can anticipate higher prices, which follow.

At S, we again see heavy volume and a poor close, then a large spread down bar with sustained volume closing on its lows. This is a 2-Bar UT and completes the weakness we began to see about a half hour earlier. Although aggressive, I like short entries on UTs and 2-Bar UTs. Keeping in mind that the overall background is still bearish (60-min chart), longs should not overstay their positions and we can anticipate more follow-through to the downside tomorrow.

Hope this is helpful,

Eiger

[kuky969]

Originally Posted by Eiger »

Background - 60-min chart:

Note the area circled in black. It is at the top of the trend (though we know it is at the top only in hindsight). Compare this to the area circled in green. They look very similar, don't they? There are very key differences, however.

Take a close look at the bars in the green circle area. Whenever price dipped lower, it immediately rebounded. In most cases, volume came in on these bars (green arrows). Professional money was buying anytime the market dipped lower. We know this from the volume. Lower prices were being rejected. The background was very bullish at this point.

Now, look at the black circle area. Although it looks similar to the casual eye, it is very different. Note that wide spread bars are no longer dipping lower, closing higher. They stay on the lows and volume comes in. This is supply present. I noted this weakness in the ES a couple of days ago. Larger interests were unloading into the buying until the buying was finally exhausted.

Also on the 60-minute, the circled area is a distribution area and represents a "cause" of selling in that area, the "effect" of which is likely to be lower prices to some degreee. That degree can be estimated via S/R levels and a point & figure chart. We are seeing that cause unfold now.



Eiger

Can we say that in accumulation area every dip of price is buying by pros ???

AND
Can we say (vice versa) in distribution area if price a bit rise that every rise is selling by pros ???

[Eiger]

Originally Posted by kuky969 »

Can we say that in accumulation area every dip of price is buying by pros ???

AND
Can we say (vice versa) in distribution area if price a bit rise that every rise is selling by pros ???

In both areas there was obviously higher volume that came in at these points. I just think of it as Tom Williams and Richard Wyckoff would view it - if there is large volume then large operators and professional interests are in the market and i want to ride along on their coattails. Both are/were keenly interested in the professional trader.