[kuky969]

Originally Posted by crabbydog »

Forexfactory also has a large VSA thread.

MTM is the same as Untold Secrets, it's just a later version, and I think its more biased towards Tradeguider and somewhat restructured.

Yahoo has a group called wyckoff-smi which you MAY find useful, but there is a lot of noise and not sure how much real value. Some useful gems there I guess.

Yes but if I can write my personal opinion,no offence,this thread in FF has poor quality compared with TL threads . People there always try invent some magic study and pure VSA posts are just from a few traders,maybe just from one nick: "malcolmb". He is trading forex and his posts are very useful.

[crabbydog]

Originally Posted by kuky969 »

Yes but if I can write my personal opinion,no offence,this thread in FF has poor quality compared with TL threads . People there always try invent some magic study and pure VSA posts are just from a few traders,maybe just from one nick: "malcolmb". He is trading forex and I his posts are very useful.

I agree the quality here is generally higher, although there are some useful posts in FF too. Some others than Malcolmb are quite good. Discussions get a little too indicator heavy, rather than pure VSA.

The best posts have found anywhere are here from eiger, I think if you read his posts, especially his detailed analyses coupled with MTM you will do well.

I can read the most obvious bars, but still struggle with background. Still, since focusing on this I have made some money instead of losing it.

Good Trading

[humdesggg]

Hi folks, I have selected the Swiss futures (6sm9) for 7 May 2009, the trading session from 17h00 to 18h00 ( 11 EST to 12 EST). Imagine, for the sake of game play, that we have a couple of margin calls on our account, and a close buddy throws you a lifeline by giving you, say 500$, to trade for an hour and u keep all the profits. From this background, I have thrown a challenge at VSA to help me analyse the setups occurring on the basis of spread and volume action on this 1 min chart. These are the patterns I see in this 1 hour time period.
1. Uptrust. Consider weakness in background and that volume is decreasing in next bars, showing that professional selling took place on this up bar.
2. Uptrust. This is another uptrust in a weak market.
3. No Demand. Another high probability pattern for shorting.
4. Uptrust. Volume increase but effort is not matching volume, as price close in middle, spelling more downside.
5. No Demand. This is a shades of gray, but it has volume has than previous 2 bars and it is good candidate for a short. This bar;s high fails at the low of 1, converting that level from support to resistance.
6. Bottom Reversal. Volume dries up compared to previous bar and close is higher too.
7. No Demand. As we are in a rising market, its easier to spot the lack of supply.
8. Stopping volume. A down bar closing in the middle on average volume.
9. No Demand. Back to back no demand bars but the lack of follow through on following bars.
10. Top reversal. This is a two bar top reversal on decreasing volume.
11. Stopping volume. Volume is less than average, but its still match the stopping volume pattern.
12. No Demand. This bar setup match a two bar top reversal. However, volume less than 2 previous bars qualifies this bar as a decent No demand bar.
13. No Demand. This is our bread and butter setup for shorting failed tops.
14. Test. This is testing the high volume of 11.
I wanted to go a step further, and from this setup, select the highest probability 5 setups that I could have taken. The highest probability is informed by the fact that our stop would be 3 pip below the low or high of the previous bar, and it would be pattern that a professional VSA trader would not skipped. Bars 3, 6, 7, 10 and 12 come across as the highest probability setups on this chart.

Please let me know which 5 setups on this bar would be your highest probability setups. If possible, post your own 1 min chart from your datafeed, so that I can compare which datafeed has more reliable volume for the Swiss future. I am using ensign with Transact on this chart.

[sevensa]

Originally Posted by humdesggg »

Hi folks, I have selected the Swiss futures (6sm9) for 7 May 2009, the trading session from 17h00 to 18h00 ( 11 EST to 12 EST). Imagine, for the sake of game play, that we have a couple of margin calls on our account, and a close buddy throws you a lifeline by giving you, say 500$, to trade for an hour and u keep all the profits. From this background, I have thrown a challenge at VSA to help me analyse the setups occurring on the basis of spread and volume action on this 1 min chart. These are the patterns I see in this 1 hour time period.
1. Uptrust. Consider weakness in background and that volume is decreasing in next bars, showing that professional selling took place on this up bar.
2. Uptrust. This is another uptrust in a weak market.
3. No Demand. Another high probability pattern for shorting.
4. Uptrust. Volume increase but effort is not matching volume, as price close in middle, spelling more downside.
5. No Demand. This is a shades of gray, but it has volume has than previous 2 bars and it is good candidate for a short. This bar;s high fails at the low of 1, converting that level from support to resistance.
6. Bottom Reversal. Volume dries up compared to previous bar and close is higher too.
7. No Demand. As we are in a rising market, its easier to spot the lack of supply.
8. Stopping volume. A down bar closing in the middle on average volume.
9. No Demand. Back to back no demand bars but the lack of follow through on following bars.
10. Top reversal. This is a two bar top reversal on decreasing volume.
11. Stopping volume. Volume is less than average, but its still match the stopping volume pattern.
12. No Demand. This bar setup match a two bar top reversal. However, volume less than 2 previous bars qualifies this bar as a decent No demand bar.
13. No Demand. This is our bread and butter setup for shorting failed tops.
14. Test. This is testing the high volume of 11.
I wanted to go a step further, and from this setup, select the highest probability 5 setups that I could have taken. The highest probability is informed by the fact that our stop would be 3 pip below the low or high of the previous bar, and it would be pattern that a professional VSA trader would not skipped. Bars 3, 6, 7, 10 and 12 come across as the highest probability setups on this chart.

Please let me know which 5 setups on this bar would be your highest probability setups. If possible, post your own 1 min chart from your datafeed, so that I can compare which datafeed has more reliable volume for the Swiss future. I am using ensign with Transact on this chart.

I have given up trying to trade on 1 mintue charts a long time ago. For me, they have too much noise and generate too many meaningless patterns.

Bars 3 and 12 are both down bars and are not no demand bars. No demand bars are up bars, not down bars.

I don't trade strictly based on VSA, don't have all the VSA terms memorized and my trading is based on several bits and pieces of things I have picked up and incorporated into my trading plan, so I hope I would not be offending anyone with my analysis, but if I was forced to trade of this chart, the entries I would have taken is bar 5, 7, 8 and 11.

Bar 5:
Entry: Short
Why:The two bars before bar 5 broke through a mini congestion zone before that on decent volume showing weakness and then a no demand bar which would have been a high probability trade for me.
Exit: Close at the bar right after bar 6 for a small loss. (High probability doesn't mean they always work out. )

Bar 7:
Entry: Short
Why: No demand bar in the same area of bar 5 after declining volume in the little rally up to that point showing that there is potential for further downside, or at least a test of the low at bar right before 6.
Exit: Stop and reverse at bar 8.

Bar 8:
Entry: Long
Why: I wouldn't call bar 8 stopping volume though. The bar right before 8 made a new low on lower volume than the previous low before bar 6 and together with bar 8 formed a two bar reversal.
Exit: Stopped out just below the low of the two bars before 10, which together with 10 formed three bars with the same high against the previous mini support area around bars 3 to 4.

Bar 11:
Entry: Long
Why: I don't know if I really can make a case per VSA for bar 11 as volume is not low enough for a test and not high enough for a shakeout and not nearly high enough and the bar is not at the right place for stopping volume. I would consider it a test bar though, even with volume higher than the previous bars. Combining the strong close, the dip below the apparent support at .8860 and strength in the background, would have been good enough for me to go long.
Exit: After the bump into apparent resistance at .8870 and the low volume bar (no demand) right before 12, I would have been stopped out just below the low of the two bars before 12.

With small spreads of the 1 minute bars and combining with comissions, I don't think this would have been highly profitable trades and probably closer to break-even. For my way of trading, the profit potenitial is not there on 1 minute bars.

Why I would have not taken the other patterns:

Bar 1:
Not an upthrust. An upthrust have a higher high than the bars before and have a close in the lower portion of the bar. Looks more like a strong reversal bar, but without seeing what happened before, there is not enough information for me to make a decision.

Bar 2:
Also not an upthrust. A fairly wide range bar, but inside the range of the bar 1 and this look more like a congestion area to me. I would not trade inside such an area.

Bar 3:
This is not a no demand bar since it have a higher close. That bar would meant nothing to me.

Bar 4:
Also not an upthrust and another meaningless bar to me, other than that it is confirming my suspicion that a trading range is forming.

Bar 6:
Warning sign to me that the bar before might have been climactic action and that a bottom was put in place. Not a bar I would place a trade on and I would wait for more confirmation or a test.

Bar 9:
The two bars before 9 seems to be running into resistance in the same area as 5 and 7, but then 9 and the bar in front of them form test bars, telling me that there aren't any supply below and to hold my long after 8 a little bit longer. However, if I was not long already, I would not have entered a long, because it was so close to the congestion aread between .8862 and .8870.

Bar 10:
Doesn't mean anything to me, other that it was the 3rd bar in a row which couldn't break through .8865. Not a bar I would have considered any kind of entry on.

Bar 12:
Not a no demand bar as the close is lower. Other than using it as part of the background and see that it appears to be stalling out at the previous top, not a bar that provide any signifance for an entry.

Bar 13:
Technically a no demand bar as well as the one before it, but we appear to be back in the congestion zone of .8862 and .8870 from earlier and for this reason not a bar I would have acted on.

Bar 14:
Technically probably a no supply bar, but at that point in time, without the benefit of hindsight and seeing the bars after 14, this would have looked to me at best range bound to some weakness in the background after the double top at 12. However one could also see that it is into the range formed around bars 5, 7 and 9. There is just no clear picture for me in the background and I would not have looked for entries until the background was clearer.

If I maybe so bold to hand out advice in this thread where there are clearly much more knowledgable people than me... I think you need to be careful to look at a chart in hindsight and try to explain all the up/down runs with VSA or any other type of method. Whatever method you use, will not pick all the rallies and doesn't have to to be profitable. Trying to force them to do that in hindsight, will just lead to frustration during real time trading as you will not be able to do so. You don't have to be able to get on board any trend; just a few.

[humdesggg]

Well Sevensa

You are bold enough to meet my expectations. I view this thread as an educational thread and therefore, will leftside, hindsight analysis has limitations, it has tremendous educational value for me. These patterns repeat themselves again and again, and therefore knowing my shortcomings on hindsight, helps me to improve on them. Living in east africa, i dont have the resources to pay 4k for a tradeguider seminar. Plus I lack the time resources to trade fulltime vsa patterns and upload my bar by bar review. You will remember i have hinted for a lieve vsa room, but the responses have been varied.

Your comments are like a goldmine to me. I can reflect on what may be divergence of opinions between us, and obviously, since u are a veteran, i have to give the benefit of doubt to you. You may have access to more VSA resources or might have paid more attention by reading MTM or Untoled Secrets more times than me.

I am 200% appreciative of your comments and will take the afternoon to look at them and study the divergence between us.

The lifeline I mentioned is real and there is indeed a random contest where u trade futures. VSA, I believe, is a solid method for trading successfully for 1 hour period using even the noise on 1m. the advantage of 1m, at least for me, is closer stops.

[humdesggg]

my trading station, where i am based, has low internet and sometimes the power goes down. last night, i was unable to attached a 2nd chart showing the corresponding bars on my platform. i will be trading similar VSA patterns on Tuesday 12 may '09 , and will take handwritten notes of the setups in the hour slot where I will trade for the contest.

The attached chart shows variance between the volumes and spread on my platform and the chart program ensign with transact datafeed. obviously, the platform chart and prices assume supremacy.

Again, this leftside, hindsight analysis helps to reduce errors of analysis and helps improve pattern recognition in realtime, as the VSA patterns repeat themselves every hour of the trading day.

[humdesggg]

Originally Posted by Eiger »

You are quite right. Some of the best traders using VSA I have met trade FX with VSA. Many of the posts on the VSA II thread detail the use of VSA in the currencies.

Some of the material by posters like PP and others have been withdrawn. Plus some of the early big names have either moved on, or are reluctant to posts on VSA part 3. Is there a way we can encourage the gr8 names of the past to accompany us on the way to VSA part 4,5 to part 10.

[Eiger]

Some ideas on Background

Keep in mind that you want to frame out the market and then anticipate what price and volume may do. Never predict. When you anticipate likely scenarios and you later see a scenario unfold you are better prepared to take appropriate action. (Also, note the plural of scenarios - this I important because if you have only one scenario, you are predicting )

Hope this is helpful,
Eiger