[NAVEEVIa]

Hi everybody
I am reading the previous VSA thread and do come up with doubts so heres one
In One of posts PP asked a question: Why is a no demand within long shadow a better trade than no supply within range of WRB?( see attached chart)
I have noticed that when there are tails when market is at new high/low PP annotates it as demnad or supply entering . So My guess is that if we see a long shadow at it represents demand/supply entering especially if price is into new ground on very high volume , if we now see a low volume signal there that reaffirms the previous supply/demand seen on shadows.
Please correct me here.
Another question
we can have a no. of combinations of low volume signals in high volume area(WRBs)
1. No demand in dark WRB
2. No supply in white WRB
3. No demand in white WRB
4. No supply in dark WRB
To me it intuitively seems that 1,2 are better candidates for trade since they reaffirm but i may be wrong here
comments appreciated
Naveen

[DbPhoenix]

If you consider the waves of buying and sellling pressure within the bar interval you've chosen rather than focus on the bars themselves, you'll see that a wave that attempts to make a higher high is of greater importance to buyers and sellers than one which is tucked inside a previous bar. Plus it's more likely that the second ND situation in your chart will be noticed by more traders since the intermediating bars may not be visible with a longer bar interval but the swing points will. What is more important in all of this is the lower high at R (assuming that the R is legitimate).

As for volume and WRBs, the two need have nothing to do with each other, i.e., one can have a WRB resulting from a lot of buying pressure and very little selling pressure, or vice-versa, which graphically would show as a WRB with "low volume".

[zdo]

Calling all you cynical VSA’rs
Got any commentary on this chart?

Actually the less jaded (like dbPhoenix) are also encouraged to Wycoff / chime in.

zdo



PS And welcome aboard db.
Not as much button pushing here as over on t2w.
All the best.

[Sledge]

Ok VSA pro's I need some educating.
I watched the GBP/USD daily bar all day yesterday and prepped for its close (See the bar marked with the arrow)
In the chart below you see a very high volume day into "higher ground" closing, not only on the low, but BELOW the prior days close. This as I understand is TEXTBOOK reversal bar stuff!

I waited for the market to drift a tad higher into 11:30 PM last night- I figure the higher the better right? Monster drop ahead!

Now I was able to make pips and profit on the trade- but I'm scratching my head right now as this "monster drop" never came to fruition. At one time I was up 58 pips and when I woke up, found myself taking only a 20 pip profit.

I would like the more seasoned VSA traders to fill me in. Forget the large green bar to the marked bars "right side". I didn't have the luxury of seeing that todays volume would be higher than yesterday when I made my trading decision.

So what is this- temporary weakness that was overcome?
Is the volume way to low to be a "reversal bar?"
I'm dying to find out the answer to this riddle!
Thanks in advance!
Sledge

[DbPhoenix]

So why did you exit the trade? What was your plan for the trade?

[Sledge]

[QUOTE=zdo;30987]
Got any commentary on this chart?
QUOTE]

Zdo-
Not sure when you took your screenshot but on my daily chart my volume is quite a bit higher than what you show in relation to the previous bar on yours. I also drew a few trendlines a while back.

As you can see it has broken from its channel and skyrocketed. The "We cracked 1.50" parties are still running rampant- I'm sure. I can say with a lot of certainty that we are now in the "Public Participation Stage" This is where the public is thinking "this bull will ride forever" and the professional money is dumping their longs off their books and gathering shorts. They are feeding the demand in the market.

If I were trading this, I would wait for the fuel to run out on the rocket, let it sputter on the top and strategize for when you will enter for your short. I trade the Cable almost exclusively, but if you are in the EUR every day, you will know its personality better than I. (i.e. does it mushroom over, or are turns more abrupt and lightning fast)

My .02 for what it is worth.
Sledge

[Sledge]

Originally Posted by DbPhoenix »

So why did you exit the trade? What was your plan for the trade?

Db-
Trade set-up was this:
Went Short at 1.9837
Looking at Trend-lines I envisioned that after I hit the hay, that it would rise to approx 1.9889 and start its decent.

I put no T/P target on the drop to "let the winner ride" and re-assess my position when I woke at 6:30 EST.

As I did wake I see that it had gone down as far as 1.9761 and returned back towards the north. looking at the 1 hour bars, it appeared that 1.9761 was the bottom. I took my 20 pips and cut out- which was a blessing since it rose from that 1.9761 and never looked back.
Sledge

[dandxg]

Originally Posted by Sledge »

Ok VSA pro's I need some educating.
I watched the GBP/USD daily bar all day yesterday and prepped for its close (See the bar marked with the arrow)
In the chart below you see a very high volume day into "higher ground" closing, not only on the low, but BELOW the prior days close. This as I understand is TEXTBOOK reversal bar stuff!

I waited for the market to drift a tad higher into 11:30 PM last night- I figure the higher the better right? Monster drop ahead!

Now I was able to make pips and profit on the trade- but I'm scratching my head right now as this "monster drop" never came to fruition. At one time I was up 58 pips and when I woke up, found myself taking only a 20 pip profit.

I would like the more seasoned VSA traders to fill me in. Forget the large green bar to the marked bars "right side". I didn't have the luxury of seeing that todays volume would be higher than yesterday when I made my trading decision.

So what is this- temporary weakness that was overcome?
Is the volume way to low to be a "reversal bar?"
I'm dying to find out the answer to this riddle!
Thanks in advance!
Sledge

Attachment 5335

Hi Sledge, I am no VSA expert, but I have been studying it full time for about 5 months so I will chime in. I am a TG customer, but just for book and boot camp. On a TG customer only event last week Sebastian advised strongly not to try and sell at the point that you did. He said it would be extremely aggressive, something only someone like Tom Williams himself would try. He suggested waiting for confirming signs of weakness. At minimum you would want to see a no demand bar after that red bar which is an upthrust, preferably you want to see that ND in the upper 1/3 of the UT. The upper 1/3 is something I learned from another price volume expert. It must have a higher close, volume that is less than the previous 2 bars, and a for me a more narrow range. Some ND's , that work, show up as equal closes with a very narrow range and volume less than previous 2 bars. So at minimum you should have waited for a ND, another UT, or a combo of both after the initial UT on the daily to show up on a smaller time frame. TG recommends using a 240 min, then drilling down to even a 60 min, and a 15 or 5 min for entry. I have heard both Tom Williams, Sebastian, and Todd Krueger say that on your entry chart after the higher time frame confirms you will see it littered with UT's, ND, and sometimes and end of rising market ( which is a narrow range at the high with extreme volume ). The top will also have a mushroom look to it, a sort of rounded top.

Furthermore, and an even more safe place to enter would be after the mark down starts, which will be shown after the market has broken through support of the trading range ( which Wyckoff SMI calls ICE ) in the distribution area you wait for a pullback on low volume which will often be ND and sometimes UT followed by ND and sell there, or buy in reverse situation. The point being that this is a much safer entry then trying to sell or buy at the extreme which is essentially what you were doing. I attempted to do the same thing as you about 1 week on euro futures and got whacked promptly for 10 ticks, no big deal, but I would of course rather not lose. So now I just wait for a confirmed reversal at the high or low after signs of weakness or strength and buy or sell on pullback on low volume.

If you have ever used fibs before, you will often see the first pb on lower volume after the confirmed reverse will occur at 38%, but that's just a side note.

I hope this made sense.