[BlowFish]

Heres a chart with more data. I wasn't going to post it so make of it what you will. I got caught up in a nice FTSE trade so it has gone to the bit bucket! I don't know the instrument but the volume struck me more high than ultra high but how long is a piece of string Mind you the chart I post is the future rather than spot so maybe that accounts for some difference blue dot is WRB.

Cheers.

[DbPhoenix]

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Wyckoff counsels that in order to determine where one is going, he first has to determine where he is:

This is what I call a "cusp". If the bulls are going to take back the reins, they need to get on with it.

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[zeon]

Originally Posted by DbPhoenix »

.
Wyckoff counsels that in order to determine where one is going, he first has to determine where he is:

This is what I call a "cusp". If the bulls are going to take back the reins, they need to get on with it.

.

Cool, that's exactly the line I drew before the day. A lot of talk of this breaking down again, but I had my line drawn and it looks like reacted to that.

Also, at the same time the ES bounced off support, the NQ reversed off the midpoint of yesterday's range at 1835.

Just observing from a neutral standpoint, but I'm sure amazed at the amount of 'order' there sometimes is. Actually finding a trade somewhere in there is another thing.

[Sledge]

Originally Posted by BlowFish »

Heres a chart with more data. I wasn't going to post it so make of it what you will. I got caught up in a nice FTSE trade so it has gone to the bit bucket! I don't know the instrument but the volume struck me more high than ultra high but how long is a piece of string Mind you the chart I post is the future rather than spot so maybe that accounts for some difference blue dot is WRB.

Cheers.

Looks like a Euro Chart. Regarding the 8th bar in from right- Wouldn't this be the Gapping up Tom Williams talks about- rapid markup to discourage any longs to sell since they are now making $- he also refers to this as a path of least resistance to "bypass the tolls normally having to be paid to get to higher prices"

[BlowFish]

Indeed it is....I should have said its not an instrument that I am familiar with.

[DbPhoenix]

Originally Posted by zeon »

Actually finding a trade somewhere in there is another thing.

At least one will be looking for those trades on the right side of the market, in this case, the long side.

Rather than my getting into hindsight analysis, I suggest that those who are interested go back now and review the morning with an eye toward the long side and not the short. Look at what price is doing and look at what volume is doing in tandem. Set aside any notions of being tricked and focus on the flow of price and volume.

[zeon]

Originally Posted by DbPhoenix »

Rather than my getting into hindsight analysis, I suggest that those who are interested go back now and review the morning with an eye toward the long side and not the short. Look at what price is doing and look at what volume is doing in tandem. Set aside any notions of being tricked and focus on the flow of price and volume.

This isn't hindsight, because what I copied here is what I observed for myself at the time and typed in a text editor. I was however observing the 'extremes' (1825 and 1845) and not considering trading from the middle.

So price opened on huge volume which brought us straight back up to resistance (1845). It stalled there and reversed rather strongly (on the 5-minute chart the second bar takes up more half of the first one). However, volume recedes on the next bars and most of them close in the middle. Volume takes off further but there's a sudden reaction, apparently in the middle of S/R at 1835. The bar closes near the high.

Next is a strong reaction back up. At this moment I was thinking: if this moves back to resistance this could lead to a short opportunity. However there wasn't much suppy at resistance (only a short pause and notice the volume taking off, but price not going lower much => no effect). Next a wide range body, very wide actually on massive volume. Price goes up more than 10 points in 5 minutes. Wow.

Next 15 minutes are three tiny little bars, again on receding volume. A retracement. But how far will the retracement go. The next resistance is at 1865, but again going long here is trading in the middle of nowhere. If I were to considering long, I'd wait for a retracement back to 1845. But as I was thinking that, price went up quickly on confirmed volume.

And so right now we are at resistance, 1865. The demandline isn't broken yet and there's no lower high. So shorting this is not an issue. Going long now is very late imo, we've already moved 30 points in two hours. Like they say, flat is also an option...

[DbPhoenix]

It may seem odd to some TL members that anyone (me) who maintains a 5s chart would be interested in a daily chart, much less a weekly one, including S/R that goes back for months.

But even if one trades off tick charts, he is excluding important information -- important in the sense that it may/will affect his trade -- if he does not consider the bar intervals and timeframes (these are two entirely different things) used by other traders.

There are, for example, a hell of a lot of EOD traders out there, and every one of them is looking at the highs of this trading range. Though some may be looking at 1390 and some may be looking at 1400 (for the NQ, 1880-1900), the power behind any move through or away from these levels will include a great many of those traders. To ignore them is to ignore the elephant in the room.

This is not to say that we can't fail here. But what are the probabilities? And that's where the relationship between price and volume provides the key.