[larsdelgars]

Originally Posted by tawe trader »

Lars,

I tend to agree with you but there can be multi-week rallies, even in a strong bear mkt, plus there's the seasonal factor to take into consideration.

Nobody on this thread is calling the ultimate bottom at the moment, only expressing what they currently see, based on the tried-and-tested Wyckoff method and in my case (via a Wolfe Wave) the possible height / target of any bear mkt rally.

Tawe

yawn... i'm turning in early tonight.....

i don't think anyone can disagree that bear markets have rallies

generally the seasonal factor that you speak of is an October event or setup and that time has passed... another "seasonal" even also occurred and was priced in and sold into... and that is a 10% rally for a democratic president... i captured this event and sold into the outcome as everyone made it clear they were heading for the nearest exit....

when i see threads like this where every trader is agreeing with one guru prediction... i run... i don't walk to the nearest exit..... furthermore i find it funny that a trading methodology is being used to make forecasts about future events as opposed to making trading decisions.... if memory serves who called a bottom in September??? i know i didn't because i was short..

look... the market is making lower highs and lower lows.... volume is sequentially increasing on declines and decreasing on rallies.... supply is being found and levels where it was diminishing... take a look at what happened in the previous bear market consolidation that ended in September with a break to the downside.

so then the argument was a bear market bounce... well ... like my article stated about bear market bounces... either driven by short covering or value accumulation... as i stated earlier the open interest dismisses a short covering rally... value buyers are spooked by extremely opaque balance sheets and bogus level 3 assets coupled with the fact that insurance in the options market is a major loser thanks to all the volatility priced in.

so who is the buyer??? the smart money? nope absolutely not... the data absolutely dismisses that... in fact the data suggests that the buyer nowadays is the small timer trying to grab the bottom... the floor traders/locals simply looking for a 5 - 10 handle bounce or the plunge protection team looking to blow American tax dollars on another hail mary attempt to base the market... i'm fairly sure the VSA book even states that pro's do not orchestrate waterfall declines/strait line declines because even they cannot handle the supply thrown onto the market....

so what side of the market are you on? personally i'm with the smart money and the smart money is short.

[HAKUNA]

No more PMs please,
The Bootcamp cds and London Symposium DVD - SOLD

[mike_ITL]

I have mine on sale.

Have a great weekend.

Mike

[taks1990]

Hi guys

As I am starting out in VSA, what real time software would you recommend, if I can't afford to spend c.$3,000 on the Tradeguider RT?

Unfortunately, my parents bought me VSA5 when I was at university and I pursuaded them that I had time to study AND make use of VSA but it never worked out and, now, years later when I want to get back into studying the markets, VSA5 is no longer in existence and my old disks don't work!

Thanks all

Mark

[HAKUNA]

Originally Posted by taks1990 »

Hi guys

As I am starting out in VSA, what real time software would you recommend, if I can't afford to spend c.$3,000 on the Tradeguider RT?

Unfortunately, my parents bought me VSA5 when I was at university and I pursuaded them that I had time to study AND make use of VSA but it never worked out and, now, years later when I want to get back into studying the markets, VSA5 is no longer in existence and my old disks don't work!

Thanks all

Mark

Get in touch with Gavin Holmes ASAP before they jack up the price at Tradeguider, explain the situation and I am sure some agreement can be reached to replace the old VSA5.

[delta]

Hi,
Can someone provide the link of Sebastian's pdf of nov. last year?
Thanks& regards,
Delta

[Eiger]

Update to Spring Idea

We've had two relative narrow range down days on lesser volume ($SPX), and today was a NR4 day (though not an inside day), indicating professional activity to the downside has lessened.

Yesterday's action was less constructive, however - a down bar after a Bottom Reversal/Spring. It would have been much more constructive to have seen an up bar yesterday.

The market is close to the danger point (lows), and needs to rally away from the danger point, otherwise new lows are likely. When price hugs the lows after a rally, it indicates lower prices. Price hasn't been hugging here, but nevertheless, needs to rally to give support to the Spring idea.

On the longer term, the second chart is a monthly chart. We are over sold on the trend channel. The 2002 lows are near. It would be surprising not to eventually at least test these lows.

Hope this is helpful,

Eiger

[Eiger]

Originally Posted by sleepy v2 »

...

What was your take on the recent VSA/TradeGuider symposium you've just been to? ....

Well, I am pretty biased as I was a part of the presentations, but people who attended had very positive comments about it.

Gavin open the conference and discussed several different charts, including the APPL and Oil charts. Gavin is quite a good trader as well as businessman, and I learned several useful things from him. Sebastian--an absolutely true wizard of the charts and terrific person--talked about VSA's major SOSs and SOWs, then gave his preferred set ups of both strength and weakness.

Tom Williams was truly amazing - he spoke about everything from individual VSA principles to broad concepts on how to trade the markets. I was truely honored to meet him.

Tom, Sebastian and Gavin did live sessions in the S&P e-minis showing live SOWs, SOSs, set ups and actual trades. Brad Bedford Brown did two live sessions in the FX markets from Australia, discussing his individual set ups in those markets, several of which we saw live. David Blundell, another great Aussie trader (and great person) offered two of his well-researched set ups (one of which I have been using to great success since).

Hank Pruden, professor at Golden Gate University, talked about classic Wyckoff analysis--a real treat for me as a Wyckoff guy Paul Avins, an inspiring guy and business coach from London, talked about how to take yourself to the next level.

Harvey Loomstein, a nueropsychologist, and I (sport, human performance & clinical psychologist) talked about how to develop a solid VSA trading plan, including how to become skilled at VSA, how to avoid common metal/emotional pitfalls, and how to think like a trader.

As I said, people who attended were quite pleased, though again, I'm biased. I thought the content was more than sufficient to develop your own trading plan, complete with solid set ups. Everyone tried very hard to convey an understanding of how the market truly works and to provide the tried and true ways to become a competent trader. I was quite impressed with the content and quality of the material provided. But that is just my opinion. Maybe someone who attended from this board can comment?

Eiger