[BlowFish]

Habi is correct in what he pointed out strictly speaking the first bar is not an upthrust as it closed high.

However you are also partly correct.... if you take that first bar and the one immediately following it the overall price action is a move up to test that area and then price falls back. Personally I would rather price falls back to the low of the first bar rather than mid (or even below it i.e. a key reversal).

Personally I try and look at he 'ebb and flow' of price and volume. Also remember that the close is entirely dependant on how you 'sample' price (i.e. what time frame you are using).

Actually time I think is a valuable component when actually trading for example if you are anticipating strength to continue and it hasn't shown up in N bars then its probably time to re-evaluate. A subject for another post but It is pretty valuable I think despite not being 'core' VSA.

[Tasuki]

habi and Blowfish you are both most assuredly correct. See attached 10 minute and 20 miinute charts of the same region as I posted yesterday. As you can see, on both a shorter timeframe, 10 minutes, as well as a longer timeframe, 20 minutes, the "upthrust" appears in its more classical form--closing down. What I am suggesting is that it is valuable to free your eyes from the "tyranny of the timeframe" and look at the "ebb and flow" of the market. Good call, you guys.

[Anonymous]

No Demand 301

Base Definition:

Narrow range bar closing up with volume less than the previous two (2) bars. p. 32, Master the Markets.

TG (signal):

Narrow range bar closing up with volume less than the previous two(2) bars. The close should be in the middle or low of the bar. p 153, Master the Markets.

Joel Pozen (Signal) No Demand & No Supply:

No Demand: C>ref(C,-1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2)
No Dmenad2: C=ref(C,-1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and ref(C,-1)>ref(C,-2)

No Supply: C<ref(C,-1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2)
No Supply2: C=ref(C,-1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and ref(C,-1)<ref(C,-2)

--Some Observations--

* Joel makes no distinction as to range nor location of the close within that range.

* TG uses some criteria that involves the bar after the potential No Demand bar.
a. This gives fewer "false signals".

* Joel's method also captures some Test bars and other low volume signs like No Buying Pressure

* While there is one definition in TG, they actually have multiple definitions as each one creates a different dialog box in the software.

Pivot Profiler (signals) No Demand and No Supply:

NoDemand:=If(H>ref(H,-1) and L>=ref(L,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1),1,0);
NoSupply:=If(L<ref(L,-1) and H<=ref(H,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and C<ref(C,+1) and L<=ref(L,+1),1,0);

NoDemand2:=If(H>ref(H,-1) and L>=ref(L,-1) and (H-L)>ref((H-L),-1) and C=O and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2),1,0);
NoSupply2:=If(L<ref(L,-1) and H<=ref(H,-1) and (H-L)>ref((H-L),-1) and C=O and C<ref(C,+1) and L<=ref(L,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2),1,0);

NoDemand3:=If(H>ref(H,-1) and L>=ref(L,-1) and (H-L)>ref((H-L),-1) and C=H and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and NoDemand2=0,1,0);
NoSupply3:=If(L<ref(L,-1) and H<=ref(H,-1) and (H-L)>ref((H-L),-1) and C=L and C<ref(C,+1) and L<=ref(L,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and NoSupply2=0,1,0);

NoDemand4:=If(H>ref(H,-1) and L>=ref(L,-1) and (H-L)>ref((H-L),-1) and C=((H-L)*0.5)+L and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and NoDemand2=0,1,0);
NoSupply4:=If(L<ref(L,-1) and H<=ref(H,-1) and (H-L)>ref((H-L),-1) and C=((H-L)*0.5)+L and C<ref(C,+1) and L<=ref(L,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and NoSupply2=0,1,0);

NoDemand5:=If(H>ref(H,-1) and L>=ref(L,-1) and (H-L)>ref((H-L),-1) and C=L and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and NoDemand2=0,1,0);
NoSupply5:=If(L<ref(L,-1) and H<=ref(H,-1) and (H-L)>ref((H-L),-1) and C=H and C<ref(C,+1) and L<=ref(L,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and NoSupply2=0,1,0);

NoDemand6:=If(C>ref(C,-1) and (H-L)<ref((H-L),-1) and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and NoDemand=0,1,0);
NoSupply6:=If(C<ref(C,-1) and (H-L)<ref((H-L),-1) and C<ref(C,+1) and L<=ref(L,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and NoSupply=0,1,0);

NoDemand7:=If(C>ref(C,-1) and (H-L)=ref((H-L),-1) and C=O and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and NoDemand=0,1,0);
NoSupply7:=If(C<ref(C,-1) and (H-L)=ref((H-L),-1) and C=O and C<ref(C,+1) and L<=ref(L,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and NoSupply=0,1,0);

NoDemand8:=If(C>ref(C,-1) and (H-L)=ref((H-L),-1) and C=H and C<>O and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and NoDemand=0,1,0);
NoSupply8:=If(C<ref(C,-1) and (H-L)=ref((H-L),-1) and C=L and C<>O and C<ref(C,+1) and L<=ref(L,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and NoSupply=0,1,0);

NoDemand9:=If(C>ref(C,-1) and (H-L)=ref((H-L),-1) and C=((H-L)*0.5)+L and C<>O and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and NoDemand=0,1,0);
NoSupply9:=If(C<ref(C,-1) and (H-L)=ref((H-L),-1) and C=((H-L)*0.5)+L and C<>O and C<ref(C,+1) and L<=ref(L,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and NoSupply=0,1,0);

NoDemand10:=If(C>ref(C,-1) and (H-L)=ref((H-L),-1) and C=L and C<>O and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and NoDemand=0,1,0);
NoSupply10:=If(C<ref(C,-1) and (H-L)=ref((H-L),-1) and C=H and C<>O and C<ref(C,+1) and L<=ref(L,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and NoSupply=0,1,0);

NoDemand11:=If(C=ref(C,-1) and (H-L)<ref((H-L),-1) and C=O and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and NoDemand=0,1,0);
NoSupply11:=If(C=ref(C,-1) and (H-L)<ref((H-L),-1) and C=O and C<ref(C,+1) and L<=ref(L,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and NoSupply=0,1,0);

NoDemand12:=If(C=ref(C,-1) and (H-L)<ref((H-L),-1) and C=H and C<>O and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and NoDemand=0,1,0);
NoSupply12:=If(C=ref(C,-1) and (H-L)<ref((H-L),-1) and C=L and C<>O and C<ref(C,+1) and L<=ref(L,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and NoSupply=0,1,0);

NoDemand13:=If(C=ref(C,-1) and (H-L)<ref((H-L),-1) and C=((H-L)*0.5)+L and C<>O and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and NoDemand=0,1,0);
NoSupply13:=If(C=ref(C,-1) and (H-L)<ref((H-L),-1) and C=((H-L)*0.5)+L and C<>O and C<ref(C,+1) and L<=ref(L,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and NoSupply=0,1,0);

NoDemand14:=If(C=ref(C,-1) and (H-L)<ref((H-L),-1) and C=L and C<>O and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and NoDemand=0,1,0);
NoSupply14:=If(C=ref(C,-1) and (H-L)<ref((H-L),-1) and C=H and C<>O and C<ref(C,+1) and L<=ref(L,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and NoSupply=0,1,0);

NoDemand15:=If(H>ref(H,-1) and L>=ref(L,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and C>=ref(C,-1) and C=O and C=ref(C,+1) and C>ref(C,+2) and H>=ref(H,+1) and H>=ref(H,+2) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2),1,0);
NoSupply15:=If(L<ref(L,-1) and H<=ref(H,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and C<=ref(C,-1) and C=O and C=ref(C,+1) and C<ref(C,+2) and L<=ref(L,+1) and L<=ref(L,+2) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2),1,0);

NoDemand16:=If(H>ref(H,-1) and L>=ref(L,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and C>=ref(C,-1) and C=H and C<>O and C=ref(C,+1) and C>ref(C,+2) and H>=ref(H,+1) and H>=ref(H,+2) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2),1,0);
NoSupply16:=If(L<ref(L,-1) and H<=ref(H,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and C<=ref(C,-1) and C=L and C<>O and C=ref(C,+1) and C<ref(C,+2) and L<=ref(L,+1) and L<=ref(L,+2) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2),1,0);

NoDemand17:=If(H>ref(H,-1) and L>=ref(L,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and C>=ref(C,-1) and C=((H-L)*0.5)+L and C<>O and C=ref(C,+1) and C>ref(C,+2) and H>=ref(H,+1) and H>=ref(H,+2) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2),1,0);
NoSupply17:=If(L<ref(L,-1) and H<=ref(H,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and C<=ref(C,-1) and C=((H-L)*0.5)+L and C<>O and C=ref(C,+1) and C<ref(C,+2) and L<=ref(L,+1) and L<=ref(L,+2) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2),1,0);

NoDemand18:=If(H>ref(H,-1) and L>=ref(L,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and C>=ref(C,-1) and C=L and C<>O and C=ref(C,+1) and C>ref(C,+2) and H>=ref(H,+1) and H>=ref(H,+2) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2),1,0);
NoSupply18:=If(L<ref(L,-1) and H<=ref(H,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and C<=ref(C,-1) and C=H and C<>O and C=ref(C,+1) and C<ref(C,+2) and L<=ref(L,+1) and L<=ref(L,+2) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2),1,0);

NoDemand19:=If(H>ref(H,-1) and L>=ref(L,-1) and C=O and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1) and V=ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2),1,0);
NoSupply19:=If(L<ref(L,-1) and H<=ref(H,-1) and C=O and C<ref(C,+1) and L<=ref(L,+1) and V=ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2),1,0);

NoDemand20:=If(H>ref(H,-1) and L>=ref(L,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and C=H and C<>O and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1) and V=ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2),1,0);
NoSupply20:=If(L<ref(L,-1) and H<=ref(H,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and C=L and C<>O and C<ref(C,+1) and L<=ref(L,+1) and V=ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2),1,0);

NoDemand21:=If(H>ref(H,-1) and L>=ref(L,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and C=((H-L)*0.5)+L and C<>O and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1) and V=ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2),1,0);
NoSupply21:=If(L<ref(L,-1) and H<=ref(H,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and C=((H-L)*0.5)+L and C<>O and C<ref(C,+1) and L<=ref(L,+1) and V=ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2),1,0);

NoDemand22:=If(H>ref(H,-1) and L>=ref(L,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and C=L and C<>O and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1) and V=ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2),1,0);
NoSupply22:=If(L<ref(L,-1) and H<=ref(H,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and C=H and C<>O and C<ref(C,+1) and L<=ref(L,+1) and V=ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2),1,0);

NoDemand23:=If(H>ref(H,-1) and L>=ref(L,-1) and C=O and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V=ref(V,-2),1,0);
NoSupply23:=If(L<ref(L,-1) and H<=ref(H,-1) and C=O and C<ref(C,+1) and L<=ref(L,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V=ref(V,-2),1,0);

NoDemand24:=If(H>ref(H,-1) and L>=ref(L,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and C=H and C<>O and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V=ref(V,-2),1,0);
NoSupply24:=If(L<ref(L,-1) and H<=ref(H,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and C=L and C<>O and C<ref(C,+1) and L<=ref(L,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V=ref(V,-2),1,0);

NoDemand25:=If(H>ref(H,-1) and L>=ref(L,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and C=((H-L)*0.5)+L and C<>O and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V=ref(V,-2),1,0);
NoSupply25:=If(L<ref(L,-1) and H<=ref(H,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and C=((H-L)*0.5)+L and C<>O and C<ref(C,+1) and L<=ref(L,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V=ref(V,-2),1,0);

NoDemand26:=If(H>ref(H,-1) and L>=ref(L,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and C=L and C<>O and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V=ref(V,-2),1,0);
NoSupply26:=If(L<ref(L,-1) and H<=ref(H,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and C=H and C<>O and C<ref(C,+1) and L<=ref(L,+1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V=ref(V,-2),1,0);

NoDemand27:=If(H>ref(H,-1) and L>=ref(L,-1) and C=O and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1) and V=ref(V,-1) and V=ref(V,-2),1,0);
NoSupply27:=If(L<ref(L,-1) and H<=ref(H,-1) and C=O and C<ref(C,+1) and L<=ref(L,+1) and V=ref(V,-1) and V=ref(V,-2),1,0);

NoDemand28:=If(H>ref(H,-1) and L>=ref(L,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and C=H and C<>O and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1) and V=ref(V,-1) and V=ref(V,-2),1,0);
NoSupply28:=If(L<ref(L,-1) and H<=ref(H,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and C=L and C<>O and C<ref(C,+1) and L<=ref(L,+1) and V=ref(V,-1) and V=ref(V,-2),1,0);

NoDemand29:=If(H>ref(H,-1) and L>=ref(L,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and C=((H-L)*0.5)+L and C<>O and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1) and V=ref(V,-1) and V=ref(V,-2),1,0);
NoSupply29:=If(L<ref(L,-1) and H<=ref(H,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and C=((H-L)*0.5)+L and C<>O and C<ref(C,+1) and L<=ref(L,+1) and V=ref(V,-1) and V=ref(V,-2),1,0);

NoDemand30:=If(H>ref(H,-1) and L>=ref(L,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and C=L and C<>O and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1) and V=ref(V,-1) and V=ref(V,-2),1,0);
NoSupply30:=If(L<ref(L,-1) and H<=ref(H,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and C=H and C<>O and C<ref(C,+1) and L<=ref(L,+1) and V=ref(V,-1) and V=ref(V,-2),1,0);


-I wanted to place myself between TG and Joel. That is, I wanted more than Signs than TG but fewer and better placed signs than Joel.

-I have used confirmation bars, but any low volume bar, especially a buying bar (or selling bar for no supply), gets my attention.

-I have broadened the definition of low volume. I include volume equal to the previous two bars. Volume equal to the previous bar and less than the bar two bars back. And volume less than the previous bar and equal to the bar two bars back.

-Some UpThursts, Tests, No Buying Pressure, and No Selling Pressure bars are picked up as well. Thus, being able to READ the chart remains an essential element of success.

-It bares repeating, these are not simply buy/sell signals in and of themselves. Background information is needed (effort bars, WRBs, WSBs, High Volume bars with the next bar down............)

As VSAers we have to adhere to certain fundamental principles, but we should not let ourselves be boxed-in.

Case in Point:

The "ideal" Test bar will have an equal or lower range, make a lower low than the previous bar, close down and close on its high with volume less than the previous two bars.

NEWS FLASH: This is the definition of a Selling Bar. Thus, while the book doesn't explicitly mention selling bars, they are part of the picture. To call the bar a selling bar belies the actual strength that is contained within it. TG, therefore, may choose not to mention this to avoid confusion.

Take this for what it is worth. Remeber, we are not talking about buy/sell indicators. Understanding the Supply/Demand dynamics is essential. Questions and comments are desired.

[Anonymous]

Originally Posted by Tasuki »

See attached 15 minute ES chart. I'm not sure what the proper definition of "upthrust" is, but I show [at vertical dotted magenta lines] what I consder to be two types of upthrusts--one that ends on the high, and one that ends on the low. In both cases, the highs of the bar were the highs of that pivot cycle, and prices dropped significantly afterwards. In both cases, the highs of the bar pierced the resistance formed by the previous bars. In both cases, the volume was higher than previous bars, but still below the average volume (represented by the yellow line of the 50 period moving average of volume). My thinking is that the volume is just enough to get the retail traders excited, and sucker them into going long at just exactly the wrong time, but not so high that the pros are throwing alot of money at this game of deception.

Comments welcome.

As an added attraction, I'm sure you'll notice some beauiful "No Demand" bars on either side of these Upthrusts.

As it has already been said, the first bar is not an Upthrust. In my way of thinking, it most likely an Effort to Rise bar. As I do not know where the open is I can not be sure. Your comment about No Demand on either side makes it more possible, however.

If this is Effort, then we have No Result from an Effort to Rise/Negative Action. Simply, we see weakness here...... One could short the no demand bar two bars later. (Low volume signal in the range of a High(er) volume bar.

[Anonymous]

The story continues........

Here is more on the underlying story. I have noticed that very often after a No Demand/No Supply (or low volume in general), 1-3 bars later we see an Effort bar.

Let's examine the story.

No Demand means there is little to no activity by the Professional Money. For practical purposes, we will define Professional Money as those traders who trade with enough size to actual effect market change by creating imbalances in supply and demand.

Now if the Professional Money is not buying as prices rise, then the must expect that prices are poised to fall.

If they expect price to fall, one should not be surprised to see a bar in the down direction where volume picks ups as they try (effort) to take price in their desired ( or expected) direction. This is shows up as an Effort to Fall bar.

Individually, neither bar is defined by the other. That is to say, they are independently defined. Hence their propensity to occur around each other gives more insight into the validity of the story they purport to tell.

Note that the chart also tells the opposite and as telling situation: a No Demand in the range of an Effort to Rise bar. As there was an effort to take price higher, price moved down. It begins to move back up. However, there is no longer any interest in higher prices. Since we are in the range or area where Bulls rushed in, we would expect more bulls to rush in. Or at least the same bulls to exert more force (effort). By NOT seeing this, we can see underlying weakness in the market.

Story is the "why". Story coupled with repetition allows us to see things as being more than mere coincidence. Story gets us thru the down draws. All those traders looking for the "Grail" , might first start out by finding a story they can believe in. It wont take away the losses, but it makes them more palatable.

[Anonymous]

Originally Posted by Tasuki »

......... What I am suggesting is that it is valuable to free your eyes from the "tyranny of the timeframe" and look at the "ebb and flow" of the market. Good call, you guys.

Nice.

Here is an great example of seeing strength in a market thru the "ebb and flow".

While this is a hindsight example, one can ask him or her self, "what would I do on the last bar of the chart?"

Take a look at what we have here. The first thing to note is that we have two Effort to Fall bars with no results. In fact, price never trades lower than the low of either effort bar. This is negative action. Negative action is basically the opposite of what we would expect to see happen. In other words, after a sign of weakness, we expect lower prices. Negatively, we see higher prices.

In this case negative action means strength.

We also see a Test and multiple No Supply bars. As the market unfolds, the ebb and flow shows a market that wants to go up. AT NO TIME IS THERE A REASON TO BE A SELLER.

To the question: While there does appear to be a little volume/price divergence, VSA is telling us the market is strong and the path of least resistance at this point, remains up. Therefore, we may not be buyers here, but we are certainly not sellers...........

[habi]

Hi PP

Why you don't mention the candle after the squat as an effort to rise? The close was outside of the WRB's s/r zone with higher volume then the previous four bars. In addition, the boddy of this candle acted then itself as s/r zone, followed by another effort to rise bar after the second "no result from an effort to fall". In an overall view, after the first effort to fall candle, I see more effort to rise then effort to fall.

[insideday]

Hi PivotProfile,

interesting read. I am not familiar with metastock, so i have a question. Does C>ref(C,+1) look one bar in the future?

If yes then your

NoDemand:=If(H>ref(H,-1) and L>=ref(L,-1) and (H-L)<=ref((H-L),-1) and V<ref(V,-1) and V<ref(V,-2) and C>ref(C,+1) and H>=ref(H,+1),1,0);

should look in tradestation like

condition1= H[1]>H[2] and L[1]>=L[2] and Range[1]<= Range[2] and V[1]<V[2] and V[2]<V[3] and C[1]>C and H[1]>=H;
if condition1 then
plot1(1);