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Old 04-01-2011, 11:18 AM   #1

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Trading Not to Lose: A Disguised Fear of Loss and the Future

Steve stared at the set-up. It was a close match for what he was seeking. He had seen this pattern emerge many times before and was comfortable that this was a high probability trade – right in line with his trading plan. Now all he had to do was get the right price. He put in his order at a rock bottom price figuring that he was managing any potential for loss. And then he waited for it to be filled. And he waited. As he waited, he watched as the trade kept climbing. Finally it had run its course and Steve, again, had been left on the sideline of the trade – his order was never filled. And this was not the first time. It was a persistent pattern that defied explanation.

Frustrated, he looked at his charts and recognized for the umpteenth time he had let a high probability, low risk trade slip through his fingers because he had insisted on a rock bottom price when, in fact, if he had acted within the price range that his trading plan had called for, he would have been able to profitably enter the trade with plenty of room to spare. This was a persistent pattern in his trading, and he did not understand it. There was also a sense of relief that he had not lost capital. He really liked keeping his potential losses to a minimum. Ex-comptroller that he was, he took great pride in loss abatement. When he looked at his ratio of winners to losers, he smiled. It was good. It was very good.

The problem was that he was not entering enough trades to make a comfortable living. The truly frustrating part for Steve was that he knew he knew how to trade. He was good enough at his methodology that he could teach it. The problem, as he saw it, was that he could not find the perfect blend of indicators and signals that would make his system work properly. As soon as he figured that out, he knew he would be able to make his financial dreams come true.
_________________________ __


Being Blind to a Self-Limiting Pattern

If you look at Steve’s situation from a third party, emotionally detached, perspective, it is easy to superficially spot the problem. He simply needs to tweak his trading plan to allow more flexibility in what price he is willing to pay to enter a trade. After all, there was plenty of room for a profit. With his trading plan modified, he would have more flexibility on his entry points and would confidently ride the high probability, low risk trade predicted by his charting. Following this line of thinking, the problem would then be solved.

And if traders were, in fact, rational and emotionally detached human beings, this would be the case. However, because they are human, actually all their thinking is emotional state dependent. And what lurks in the shadows of the mind (pushed far away from conscious awareness), does create a persistent pattern of perception, emotion, thinking, and behavior that limits a trader’s potential for peak performance trading. The trader becomes blind to this pattern operating in the background of his awareness – he does not even see it influencing this perception. Off his radar screen, it keeps hijacking his capacity to successfully perform in his trading.

Here is the way one trader described this form of blindness:

_________________________ _________________

“Most traders don't believe one of the key variables to successful trading is themselves. Thus, they ignore or underestimate the importance of themselves as a key piece of the puzzle, which is why they get "tunnel vision" about their trade methods.

I also see an escalating situation where traders realize that they have a discipline problem via publicly stating such as a fact...they believe their "self help" solution is too fine tuned for their trade method. Simply, once again, they fall back into the trap that it's about the trade method, only under the facade they are working on their discipline problems.

Further, just as much of a problem, many of those that show up to give advice about the discipline problems...their recommendation involves changing, tweaking or fine tuning the trade method. This pattern (pun intended) helps instill the belief that if we fix the trade method...we'll become disciplined traders. It just doesn't work like that.”
_________________________ ________________


Like many traders before him, initially Steve was resistant to exploring how he was part of the problem. He looked everywhere but failed to look at his psychological contribution to his trading problem. As a rationally trained man, he believed the problem was “out there”. And that he, of course, was rational. The problem, in his perception, was to be fixed by altering the variables of his trading plan. The trading plan was the problem. If the trading plan were fixed, his problem would go away. What he had to acknowledge, though, was that after five years of rationally “fixing” his trading plan (when it worked quite well in simulation) was that the trading plan was not the problem – he was. But how?

Trading “Not to Lose”,
Rather Than Trading With an Edge

When Steve began to examine beliefs that he brought into trading, he discovered he carried more emotional baggage than he initially thought. And, in his mindlessness, these deeply held beliefs directed what his rational mind saw. His hard-nosed approach to price and avoidance of loss, under close scrutiny, was not the product of rational, impartial problem solving. It was fear masquerading as reason.

What Steve discovered was that he had been using “rationally thinking” as a way of avoiding his discomfort that trading forced into the conscious mind. Uncertainty and loss had become associated with one another in Steve’s brain/mind – his perceptual map. He carried this fear of loss in the face of uncertainty as self limiting belief now. But it was beneath the surface. It was like a submarine, beneath the surface, torpedoing a ship on the surface. Fear was the submarine. Rational was the ship on the surface. His trading was the casualty.

When he traded, he triggered to this perceptual map that had become a self-fulfilling prophesy. The truth, beneath his rational exterior, was that he believed that the uncertainty of the markets would lead to loss if he were not very careful. Out of this deeply held and unconscious, fear-based belief, he created a rational cover up to avoid the potential for loss. By never getting the price he wanted, he avoided the fear of uncertainty that kept blowing up this trading plan.

With his rational mind doing the bidding of his fear-based beliefs, he avoided the potential for loss in his trading. There was nothing wrong with his trading plan, he discovered. The limitation to his trading was based on the rules of uncertainty and loss he had learned as he grew up in a family that experienced terrible financial losses in his formative years. These years had been tough on the family. In the face of survival, they had learned the hard way to avoid uncertainty and to only risk when you could not lose.

This way of seeing the world (that the world is a dangerous place and you’d better be careful) became the hidden assumption that guided Steve’s development of risk management. And in his profession prior to trading, as a corporate comptroller, this perceptual map worked well. Steve did not see his perspective as a personal bias though; he saw it “as the way it is”. This is because it had become a familiar pattern and was pushed into the background of his awareness.

The very skill set that gave Steve an “edge” in corporate finance had become a liability in trading. He had developed a habit of trading “not to lose”, rather than a mindset of accepting and managing the risk of probabilities that trading demands

Steve came to recognize that it was not his trading plan that needed to change – it was him. This is not to say that his trading plan does not need to evolve, along with him, as he moves deeper into his journey of trading. What Steve came to understand was that he is an inseparable element from his trading. Each element – from platform to methodology to personal psychology – has to be woven together with care to create successful trading.

And without a close examination of the beliefs in which his psychology is rooted, he was missing the access to a key element to successful trading. He fell into the deception that he was rational and that “rational” was normal – even superior. It felt emotionless, which he had been taught was how a trader needed to trade. This was also a stumbling block to his growth as a trader. What he discovered was that “rational” is an emotional state among other emotional states. And that he could hide his discomfort behind the façade of “being emotionless” that a rational emotional state provides.

Rational became a defense that allowed him to avoid looking deeper into himself. After closer inspection he discovered that a deeply rooted fear of loss had caused him to stay out of trades. Demanding a price that the market was not willing to give became a way for him to avoid his fear that he might lose. And with his logic and rational thinking captured by this fear, he produced a trading plan of elaborate criterion that looked good and keep him out of trades. And because it was so familiar to him, he never saw the self limiting beliefs operating within him.

Mindfulness as Part of a Psychological Trading Plan
You have just read about a trader wakening up from his mindlessness. He was so absorbed by his logic that he could not see that it was blinding him to the core problem. It kept him focused on the surface of the problem. He saw symptoms of the deeper problem, but the symptoms so pre-occupied him that he thought the symptoms were the problem. He was lost in his direction, but making good time.

Questions for Developing Your Mindfulness:
(1) If you take a look at the symptoms of your trading, what do you discover?

(2) What is the consistent behavioral performance that keeps repeating itself?

Then let’s go a little deeper.

(3) What kind of game plan seems to be in place?

For the trader in the example above, for instance, the game plan was “not to lose”. His game plan did not include managing the risk of uncertainty so that probability was on his side. He kept telling himself that in his self deception he was trading to win, but his behavioral performances over time told a different story. His logic actually covered up the deeper self-limiting belief that was at the core of his lackluster trading performance. The second part of his game plan was to hide from his fear, and he accomplished that by staying stuck in a kind of "logical thinking" that produces merely surface evaluation – projecting the problem outside of the self – rather than a mindful attitude that looks for the beliefs beneath the performance.

(4) Based on your trading performances, not on your rhetoric, what beliefs actually drive your trading?

No one is going to be looking at your answers to these questions. The questions are designed to help you discover the current psychological organization of self that trades your platform and methodology. Becoming mindful of them is a major step in changing them into more effective beliefs that open up the possibility of peak performance trading.

As long as hidden beliefs stay out of sight, they are out of mind. But, they still influence your trading performance. You are simply mindless of (i.e. blind to) their influence much like a horse with blinders on never sees the green grass on each side of the path. The blinders become the “tunnel vision” that limits what the horse (or the trader) sees and can act upon. Developing this kind of mindfulness is a major element in the evolution of a trader. Without its development, you stay stuck in the pattern of seeking answers “out there”. With it, the trader becomes aware of the tunnel vision that has blinded his development. Blinders off, a new vision of trading emerges where platform, methodology, and personal psychology coalesce into a dynamic new possibility of peak performance trading.

For a video interview by MoneyShow.com with Rande Howell regarding managing uncertainty and mindfulness, click here http://www.moneyshow.com/video/video...3&scode=020437
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Old 04-01-2011, 01:00 PM   #2

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Re: Trading Not to Lose: A Disguised Fear of Loss and the Future

Steve's dollar risk is too high. He should lower the dollar amount that he can lose. If he keeps lowering it and he still remains fearful, then he should really choose another career. He is the proverbial square peg. Have him become a clerk on the floor of the exchange if he wants to be close to the action.

As a trained professional, you should advise him that he is too far from center to ever make it and all the counseling in the world won't get him where he needs to be. If the counseling does help, then he will likely have bouts of relapse in the future and he will once a gain be staring at a screen not able to take the set up.
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Old 04-01-2011, 01:38 PM   #3

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Re: Trading Not to Lose: A Disguised Fear of Loss and the Future

This is a great example. It helps to understand typical problems that happen in trading. The interesting thing in the story, is that the trader is so good at picking the exact reversal point, that he placed the order, to the penny, at the exact reversal point. If anyone finds themselves doing that, then they have an exceptional ability to see a reversal happening.

This technical side of this issue is related to a post I made here:

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/for...ping-9558.html

I have the same problem as the trader in the story. I admit my problem, feeling that some traders might see me as damaged goods who should just give up, quietly go away, and live the rest of my life never realizing my potential, and really never being fulfilled in life. Actually, it's good to express those feelings. I'm not sure what it does, but I think it's positive. I think that my fear of loss in trading is very much related to my fear of what other people think of me. I could try to cover that up, but then it might drive the problem even deeper.
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Old 04-01-2011, 01:57 PM   #4

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Re: Trading Not to Lose: A Disguised Fear of Loss and the Future

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rande Howell »
Like many traders before him, initially Steve was resistant to exploring how he was part of the problem
I am starting to explore that possibility myself. After making stupid mistakes when I had all the information I needed to make the correct decision, I've realized that it's not my indicators, or my strategy that is at fault. It's my failure to execute properly. And that failure to execute properly is 100% my state of mind. In the past I could have blamed it on lack of knowledge or understanding, but when I see everything perfectly, in time to make the decision, and still do the wrong thing, then it can't be my trade set up. It's got to be me.

Actually, getting to the point, where I can read the market extremely well, is quite an accomplishment in itself. I haven't been at this level of accomplishment very long. I'm just achieving that now. But in the process of acquiring the technical skills, I have not honed my state of mind.
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Old 04-01-2011, 02:13 PM   #5

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Re: Trading Not to Lose: A Disguised Fear of Loss and the Future

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Originally Posted by Rande Howell »
What he discovered was that “rational” is an emotional state among other emotional states.
Interesting. I always associated "rational" as an emotionless state. As a way to become "cold", "hard", and unfeeling. Thinking that cold, hard and unfeeling is some superior way of dealing with life.
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Old 04-01-2011, 02:21 PM   #6

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Re: Trading Not to Lose: A Disguised Fear of Loss and the Future

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tradewinds »
This is a great example. It helps to understand typical problems that happen in trading. The interesting thing in the story, is that the trader is so good at picking the exact reversal point, that he placed the order, to the penny, at the exact reversal point. If anyone finds themselves doing that, then they have an exceptional ability to see a reversal happening.

This technical side of this issue is related to a post I made here:

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/for...ping-9558.html

I have the same problem as the trader in the story. I admit my problem, feeling that some traders might see me as damaged goods who should just give up, quietly go away, and live the rest of my life never realizing my potential, and really never being fulfilled in life. Actually, it's good to express those feelings. I'm not sure what it does, but I think it's positive. I think that my fear of loss in trading is very much related to my fear of what other people think of me. I could try to cover that up, but then it might drive the problem even deeper.
Tradewinds,

If you are going to believe that someone can actually consistently pick trades to the tick and see a reversal happening before they happen, then you will never be happy with yourself as a trader because you are comparing the reality of what you know about yourself to the ego driven lies told to you by others. You will never be good enough if you compare yourself to the fantasy they sell you.

Trading is hard work and it is hard for everyone and not just you. Run in the opposite direction when someone tells you that they make money every day, week, or every month. Run when someone tells you that they consistently call the reversals to the tick. Or if you do not want to take my word for it and run, then put them to the test. Make them show you real time that they can call the market to the tick. Not one will expose themselves.
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Old 04-01-2011, 02:31 PM   #7

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Re: Trading Not to Lose: A Disguised Fear of Loss and the Future

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Originally Posted by MightyMouse »
Tradewinds,

If you are going to believe that someone can actually consistently pick trades to the tick and see a reversal happening before they happen, then you will never be happy with yourself as a trader because you are comparing the reality of what you know about yourself to the ego driven lies told to you by others. You will never be good enough if you compare yourself to the fantasy they sell you.

Trading is hard work and it is hard for everyone and not just you. Run in the opposite direction when someone tells you that they make money every day, week, or every month. Run when someone tells you that they consistently call the reversals to the tick. Or if you do not want to take my word for it and run, then put them to the test. Make them show you real time that they can call the market to the tick. Not one will expose themselves.

You seem to cap your true potential, perhaps as insurance against fear.
It is probably not fear of failure that disturbs you, even though this seems to be the most widely mentioned fear here at TL.

No, it is probably the fear of the power of reaching your true potential that stirs and upsets you.
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Old 04-01-2011, 03:22 PM   #8

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Re: Trading Not to Lose: A Disguised Fear of Loss and the Future

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Originally Posted by Rande Howell »
When he looked at his ratio of winners to losers, he smiled. It was good. It was very good. ... The problem was that he was not entering enough trades to make a comfortable living.
I confess I do not have time to read the whole post.

But, why doesn't Steve keep his same number of trades, and increase his position size? Either way, risk is increased, but at least then he gets to psychologically have the confidence of a good W/L ratio.
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