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Trading Psychology How do we learn to conquer our fear and greed? Discuss the mental aspects of the game.

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Old 07-26-2011, 05:56 PM   #1

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Is It Possible to Become Overconfident?

Over confidence can be damaging to the trader as much as lack of confidence in executing trades. Any emotional extreme is an unwelcome quality in a winner’s mindset. After making a great winning streak there is a tendency for many traders to become complacement, cocky and careless. When a trading system is working well there can be a natural human inclination towards the feeling of infallibility. The trader can be impaired and start trading on gut feeling. This is not a good sign of trading like a professional and usually results in damaging accounts and mindset. Many traders build up accounts only to give it all back to the market. What are the symptoms of overconfidence?

Willingness to take larger risks.
Staking a much larger position in one market.
Risking more than usual across multiple markets.
Not adhering to trading plan.
Willingness to ride losses longer than usual.
Maybe I’ll jut take a chance attitude.
Not taking profits at predetermined objectives.
Feeling of the best is yet to come.
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Old 07-26-2011, 08:40 PM   #2

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Re: Is It Possible to Become Overconfident?

a guy in an office I used to work in used to stand up with raised arms when a big trade went his way - after a while he forced us/begged us to make him close all his positions when he did this - he knew his overconfidence would cause him losses in the near future and history showed his exuberance was a clear sign losses were coming......so it was stop, close positions. step back and breathe again.

and yet.....there is an argument for trading bigger as you become more confident and are seeing the swings in the market clearly.
I guess there is that fine line between confidence and cockiness, and it manifests itself in a variety of ways and is different for different people. Just another thing to test us
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Old 07-27-2011, 07:42 AM   #3

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Re: Is It Possible to Become Overconfident?

Imo, there is no such thing as "overconfidence". Confidence is belief in rational understanding of a situation. So overconfidence would fall into the category of the irrational and thereby render it as non-existent. What I see is confidence and arrogance. Rational and irrational. I believe this helps in defining when you may be about to come off the rails so to speak, in that it is easier to define rational and irrational than whether the degree of confidence you have in something is too much or too little.
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Old 07-27-2011, 08:43 PM   #4

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Re: Is It Possible to Become Overconfident?

1 Willingness to take larger risks.
2 Staking a much larger position in one market.
3 Risking more than usual across multiple markets.
4 Not adhering to trading plan.
5 Willingness to ride losses longer than usual.
6 Maybe I’ll jut take a chance attitude.
7 Not taking profits at predetermined objectives.
8 Feeling of the best is yet to come.


Aren't 1, 2, 3, and 5 the same thing?


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Old 07-28-2011, 01:15 PM   #5

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Re: Is It Possible to Become Overconfident?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay McKean »
Over confidence can be damaging to the trader as much as lack of confidence in executing trades. Any emotional extreme is an unwelcome quality in a winner’s mindset. After making a great winning streak there is a tendency for many traders to become complacement, cocky and careless. When a trading system is working well there can be a natural human inclination towards the feeling of infallibility. The trader can be impaired and start trading on gut feeling. This is not a good sign of trading like a professional and usually results in damaging accounts and mindset. Many traders build up accounts only to give it all back to the market. What are the symptoms of overconfidence?

Willingness to take larger risks.
Staking a much larger position in one market.
Risking more than usual across multiple markets.
Not adhering to trading plan.
Willingness to ride losses longer than usual.
Maybe I’ll jut take a chance attitude.
Not taking profits at predetermined objectives.
Feeling of the best is yet to come.
you don't have to worry about becoming overconfident
you never have to worry about becoming overconfident
the market has a way to humble overconfident traders
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Old 07-28-2011, 03:10 PM   #6

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Re: Is It Possible to Become Overconfident?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tams »
you don't have to worry about becoming overconfident
you never have to worry about becoming overconfident
the market has a way to humble overconfident traders
hi,tams do you mean,that the market has a way to humble the overconfident traders,if they don't respect it?or the market give a lesson if the traders become overconfident because too much sure of their success,and gain ?thanks in advance.

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Old 07-28-2011, 03:20 PM   #7

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Re: Is It Possible to Become Overconfident?

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Originally Posted by ahimsa »
hi,tams do you mean,that the market has a way to humble the overconfident traders,if they don't respect it?

or the market give a lesson if the traders become overconfident because too much sure of their success,and gain ?thanks in advance.

ahimsa
aren't you talking about the same thing?
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Old 07-28-2011, 05:48 PM   #8

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Re: Is It Possible to Become Overconfident?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tams »
aren't you talking about the same thing?

I don't know,i'm not so sure maybe its possible that my question is misrepresent.i mean that for me when we start we are more sure,after some gain and sure to had found a good strategy,for a profitable trade, it's inevitable that we loss,after the first loss we start to become insecure, and here the market don't gave to us a lesson,but are us that start to learn to take some confidence with market.When the traders move against the market opening a position without reflect or against trend,start to operate with a bit of arrogance,and here for me that the market punishing the traders.if only we'll have the same cold to operating of when we read a chart after the close,i think that we'll must all millionaire.maybe i can think that after some time,overconfident loss and insecure gain...maybe...if don't take the place too much fear to open position.and loss money.
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