[Ingot54]

Originally Posted by Avarice »

Guys there's something about U.S. trading hours that I find utterly confusing.

The proposed strategy is ... an EOD strategy. My question is, how do you apply it to a contract that's traded 24/7? At what time of day do you look at your charts and say "Aha there's my setup, I'll put up an entry order for the next session" ?

Hi Avarice - I'd like to say I enjoy your questions and input.

I am wondering if you are concerned about entering at the EOD change because of fear of excessive draw-down? If so, then set your fears aside and relax. Here is what I do:

In the past 10 trading days, I have entered at the opening of the candle immediately the previous one ends. The reason is that if the StochasticRSI indicator does not move in our required direction, then It is not a trade for me. There is nothing else to do - you can not "will" a trade into existence - it is there or it isn't - and you have scores of charts to go through to find one that is setting up nicely.

Here are my opening trades and the maximum drawdown from opening. I am using demo, so I have not included the spread - just the opening price to maximum DD:

USDCHF - 11 pips - still open - +300 pips .......... (opened 4th July)
GBPCHF - 15 pips - still open - +596 pips .......... (opened 4th July)
GBPUSD - 13 pips - closed + 136 pips ............... (opened 5th July)
USDCAD - 9 pips - still open - + 53 pips ............. (opened 13th July)
NZDUSD - 25 pips - still open - + 196 pips ......... (opened 13th July)
AUDUSD - 51 pips - still open - +28 pips ............ (opened 13th July)

Many of these trades have swung back against me, but are still legitimately within the trend, so I have not taken profits yet. At one point I had 1544 pips (incl the GBPUSD I closed) and now there are 1309 pips profit. This is the most pips I have made in a fortnight ever, and the first time I have had a trade run to more than 600 pips ... and still open!

I present these numbers from my demo a/c to show that when that StochasticRSI triggers, then you simply ACT on that signal. The draw-down I have showed you means that draw-down is a non-issue. The dates in brackets are the dates the trades were opened, Australian dateline. We are GMT +10 here, so those daily candles / bars close / open at 10am our time.

I don't hang around to "see what they will do" - the entry is either there or it isn't ... and I turn off my computer. I have a look in the evening - and that's about it. This gets me my life back - the reason I entered trading in the first place. There is nothing to tweak, no fibs to measure, no other indicators or charts - just me, the 21 / 65 ema, the StochRSI and the Daily chart.

Originally Posted by Avarice »

Do you guys use your own, personal timeframe? If yes, when does "your" day end? Do you sync with the pit-traded contract's RTH? Do you consider "your" day at an end when volume drops? Or do you actually wait for eCBOT's daily maintenance break and cram all your work into these 45 mins?

What do you make of contracts that trade in the pit AND electronically (take ZC - Corn, for example)? Do you still trade the electronic contract even if the pit's open?

I live in Europe ...

These things are foreign to me - I guess all I want is a simple method and I never have to concern myself again with news, economics, technical analysis or waves, zigzags, multi-level charting, data, slippage, spreads or anything else. I KNOW what this strategy can do, and I place my confidence quietly in that.

If you are an impatient person, or impulsive, then simply follow the rules, and continue to ask questions.

I sincerely hope you stick with this. I have a friend who is a committed scalper and loves it. But after looking at this strategy he is convinced of its awesome potential too.

Do not worry about asking questions - I have some too (posts to follow), but I suspect I will have a ot of my questions answered in the Stanley Kroll .pdf posted in the very beginning of this thread at post #1.

Kind regards

Ingot

PS - It must be difficult in your time-zone to trade the same EOD candle - my platform (forex.com MT4) is based on GMT zero. I do not recommend forex.com as a live broker. Nor do I discourage dealing with them - I chose their platform based on the EOD bar closing at zero hrs GMT which is the NYSE close? I use MT4 only for their brilliant flexibility in charting, not for live trading.

[Ingot54]

Originally Posted by optiontimer »

Here is our system. I would think it should need very little tweaking. I have tried to make it easy and clear to follow. Please, if you have questions, and if anything seems unclear to you, let me know here. As I said in the previous poll threads, I have two goals with this project - 1) Not to lose too much, and 2) to keep it simple, very, very simple.

When the 21 EMA is above the 65 EMA, we do not want to be short, and we may be looking for a long entry signal. Only oversold readings of the stochRSI are relevant, and they are relevant if and only if price has retraced back to a level between the EMA's or even slightly below. A long entry is signaled when stochRSI has turned up on a closing basis, and entry is made the next day if price makes a higher high than the prior day.

When the 21 EMA is below the 65 EMA, we do not want to be long, and we may be looking for a short entry. Only overbought readings of the stochRSI are relevant, and they are relevant if and only if price has retraced back to a level between the EMA's or even slightly above. A short entry is signaled when stochRSI has turned down on a closing basis, and entry is made the next day if price makes a lower low than the prior day.

I am open to comments & questions at anytime.

Thank You,

-optiontimer[/SIZE]

I was going to post a chart or two with a question about exits, and was reading through the thread from the first post, to see if much has been covered about exits.

I didn't get far before I realised I have been very fortunate with my entries! So here is the situation, and I'll put the exit questions on the back burner for now.

It is clear from my previous post (above) that I have been breaking the entry rules inadvertently, and getting away with it. While this has been paying off these past 2 weeks, the market may not always be so kind, and could lead to whipsaw activity that may be very costly over time.

I have quoted the basic rules from OptionTimer's post #8, and I see I have been prematurely entering my trades. I have been entering trades when the StochRSI turned up / down at the beginning of a new daily candle, while keeping true to all the other rules. Foolish of me not to have gotten that right. In fact the way I read it, the StochRSI should be turned up at the END of the closing candle.

Secondly, the entry is still not triggered unless price makes a higher high / lower low than the previous days high / low.

This makes a very big hole in the number of pips I had in my pip-basket, but when corrected, it makes those pips very much safer than the quick pips I was able to make by jumping in one day early.

It was unintended and thus serendipitous, but in the future I will need to make these entries more carefully.

In the mean time I will be reading more of Kroll, to see what he has to say about trade management and exits, because I am being faced with some of these issues as swings occur. I have already closed the GBPUSD I entered on 5th July, and did so by setting a SL before leaving the computer on 12th July - 5 trading days from the opening of that position.

So far this strategy is not difficult, and while losses are never far away, it is far easier to make decisions trading Daily charts than it can be trading intra-day activity.

Thanks OptionTimer for you generosity in sharing this strategy.

Kind regards

Ingot

[optiontimer]

Originally Posted by Ingot54 »

...I didn't get far before I realised I have been very fortunate with my entries! ...I see I have been prematurely entering my trades. I have been entering trades when the StochRSI turned up / down at the beginning of a new daily candle, while keeping true to all the other rules. Foolish of me not to have gotten that right. In fact the way I read it, the StochRSI should be turned up at the END of the closing candle.

I do not see anything wrong with your entry approach so long as it is done consistently and without second guessing. Whta matters most is that you are adhering to the structure of the system - you are trading with the main trend and against minor reactions against that trend. Your way is working for you, and you seem comfortable and relaxed with it. I urge you to continue as you have. If you find something that works for Ingot, then optiontimer be damned!

Yes, losses will happen, and they will sometimes occur in bunches. Your consistent, disciplined application will give you the ptience you need to control and trade through the inevitable draw downs.

-optiontimer

[optiontimer]

Originally Posted by Avarice »

Guys there's something about U.S. trading hours that I find utterly confusing.

Most of the contracts OT selected in the introductory posts trade (almost) 24 hrs per day. The proposed strategy is -- at least if I understood correctly -- an EOD strategy. My question is, how do you apply it to a contract that's traded 24/7? At what time of day do you look at your charts and say "Aha there's my setup, I'll put up an entry order for the next session" ?

Do you guys use your own, personal timeframe? If yes, when does "your" day end? Do you sync with the pit-traded contract's RTH? Do you consider "your" day at an end when volume drops? Or do you actually wait for eCBOT's daily maintenance break and cram all your work into these 45 mins?

What do you make of contracts that trade in the pit AND electronically (take ZC - Corn, for example)? Do you still trade the electronic contract even if the pit's open?

I live in Europe and I I'm not overly familiar with the intricate details of U.S. futures, so please be gentle And sorry for the slight off-topicness!

Are you using a charting software that require you do input trading session open & close? If so, try to find a broker with charts where this work is already done for you.

For CSIdata, I use the floor & electronic combined, but I almost always trade the electronic contract only unless there is more liquidity in the pit (a rarity these days).

I usually look at my charts in the evening after 7PM NYC time.

For what its worth, I really doubt that a slightly different close time will effect the system much if at all. When in doubt, use 5PM-5PM NYC for foreign exchange cash markets and use globex open/close for all others.

-optiontimer

[optiontimer]

Originally Posted by Ingot54 »

... but when corrected, it makes those pips very much safer than the quick pips I was able to make by jumping in one day early...

I would agree with this - the more conservative entry I suggested should have a better winning percentage. However, the initial stop loss required will often be significantly greater than that required by your entry mechanism.

Your entries have thus far had a very impressive average max adverse excursion form entry. My entries will be prone to taking a bit more heat than you have had to withstand so far.

-optiontimer

[Ingot54]

Originally Posted by optiontimer »

I do not see anything wrong with your entry approach so long as it is done consistently and without second guessing. Whta matters most is that you are adhering to the structure of the system - you are trading with the main trend and against minor reactions against that trend. Your way is working for you, and you seem comfortable and relaxed with it. I urge you to continue as you have. If you find something that works for Ingot, then optiontimer be damned!

Yes, losses will happen, and they will sometimes occur in bunches. Your consistent, disciplined application will give you the patience you need to control and trade through the inevitable draw downs.

-optiontimer

Thank you OT for giving me confidence in that area. I may just continue as I have been now, because yes, it has been going well for me. But at the same time, I have been keeping a watchful eye on draw-down, to nip the early entries in the bud if necessary if and when they do run the opposite way.

I would rather take 10 losses in a row that cost me 30 or 50 pips each, than miss the good moves that nett 600 pips a few times a month. Now that situation may be hypothetical, but one has to be realistic about trading, to the extent that losses are very much a part of winning. If traders could only learn to take their losses early (it took me quite a few years to get a grip on that) then they would also be ready to let good trades run to their potential.

For now I remain very much a student. Kroll has so much to teach us and if there was ever a text that "should" be taught in trading school, Stanley Kroll would have to be in the top three or four essential prerequisites before enrolling.

I look forward eagerly to learning more about trading - I have just begun.

Thank you.

Ingot

[optiontimer]

Originally Posted by Ingot54 »

...Here are my opening trades and the maximum drawdown from opening. I am using demo, so I have not included the spread - just the opening price to maximum DD:

USDCHF - 11 pips - still open - +300 pips .......... (opened 4th July)
GBPCHF - 15 pips - still open - +596 pips .......... (opened 4th July)
GBPUSD - 13 pips - closed + 136 pips ............... (opened 5th July)
USDCAD - 9 pips - still open - + 53 pips ............. (opened 13th July)
NZDUSD - 25 pips - still open - + 196 pips ......... (opened 13th July)
AUDUSD - 51 pips - still open - +28 pips ............ (opened 13th July)

Many of these trades have swung back against me, but are still legitimately within the trend, so I have not taken profits yet. At one point I had 1544 pips (incl the GBPUSD I closed) and now there are 1309 pips profit. This is the most pips I have made in a fortnight ever, and the first time I have had a trade run to more than 600 pips ... and still open!

Those are awesome results, Ingot! Now, can you do it with real money?

Originally Posted by Ingot54 »

I don't hang around to "see what they will do" - the entry is either there or it isn't ... and I turn off my computer. I have a look in the evening - and that's about it. This gets me my life back - the reason I entered trading in the first place. There is nothing to tweak, no fibs to measure, no other indicators or charts - just me, the 21 / 65 ema, the StochRSI and the Daily chart... a simple method and I never have to concern myself again with news, economics, technical analysis or waves, zigzags, multi-level charting, data, slippage, spreads or anything else. I KNOW what this strategy can do, and I place my confidence quietly in that.

That too is awesome - and it is exactly what I was hoping to help others accomplish with this thread. I am very happy for you, and I hope there are others out there who are coming around to this perspective also.

Originally Posted by Ingot54 »

So far this strategy is not difficult, and while losses are never far away, it is far easier to make decisions trading Daily charts than it can be trading intra-day activity.

Thanks OptionTimer for your generosity in sharing this strategy.

Kroll had put this strategy out in the public domain many many years ago. It worked then, it works now, and it will work many many years in the future. The markets, for all the talk of high frequency trading, market profile, buzzword, buzzword, buzzword, have not changed in how they behave on a day to day basis. The only real variable in whether or not this system works for any particular trader is the ability of that particular individual to exercise the discipline and patience required to apply this system and abide by it consistently.

-optiontimer

[optiontimer]

Originally Posted by PWP »

... Here's an update on my Gbp/Chf trade and my actions to date:

... Was stopped out ... Reentered with same criteria as above - decided not to move stop if trade was executed - it was - at one point I was -103 pips but left trade on - now +40 pips - leaving stop at 1.3700 for time being...

- Peter (PWP)

Hi Peter,

Would you be able to update us on the status of your re-entry GBPCHF short?

Thank You,

optiontimer