[prtrader]

I've watched him trade, and you do need a six figure or maybe even 7 figure account to trade with him.

In a webinar he took a long trade in the ES, and it immediately went against him, he started with one contract, then added 4 as price went against him. Price continued to fall, so he added 8, price continued to fall and added some more....fell again, so he added some more. Until finally, with 60+ contracts, price bounced and he took partial profits at 1 tick and the rest at 2 ticks. So he managed to end up with a gross profit of around $1500. At one point he had an unrealized loss of over $4500, before price finally bounced.

That's probably why he hasn't lost since January. If you have a big account, scale in on losers and take profits at 1-4 ticks, you could probably enjoy a winning streak like that as well.

[steve46]

I think I commented about this earlier in the thread....but here is a recap for those who may not have understood the situation

Most retail traders are undercapitalized...theref ore it is likely that even a minor drawdown (no matter what strategy is used) will cause them to either abandon the system or stop trading.

"Professionals", "institutional traders" and "speculators" have in common access to a larger starting capital account, AND because they are often trading other people's money, there is less psychological pressure on them, when (not if) they experience a drawdown...

For this and other reasons, the strategy employed makes all the difference...for a retail trader to have a chance at success (trading S&P futures for example) they must have a minimum of $20,000 in their account and no pressure to provide immediate cash flow from that account and B.) a strategy in place that permits them to trade with relatively high accuracy (to obtain favorable entry more than 70% of the time) and finally, they need to have in place tools (a workable protocol) that allows them to minimize stop losses so that they can take multiple "probe" type trades without much impact on their accounts.

From my point of view (and from experience) it is necessary for a student to get a sufficient amount of "reps" doing this kind of trading BEFORE they can obtain consistent success intraday...The method I read about (that the gentleman is using to trade his account in the room) doesn't fit that description...and for that reason. I am guessing that many if not most start out with great expectations and then either bleed their accounts dry or simply get discouraged and stop because they cannot duplicate his style (without enduring significant psychological discomfort)....

Thats about a generous a characterization as I can manage given what I am hearing about the room..I would look for another alternative.

Best Regards
Steve

[BlowFish]

Originally Posted by prtrader »

I've watched him trade, and you do need a six figure or maybe even 7 figure account to trade with him.

In a webinar he took a long trade in the ES, and it immediately went against him, he started with one contract, then added 4 as price went against him. Price continued to fall, so he added 8, price continued to fall and added some more....fell again, so he added some more. Until finally, with 60+ contracts, price bounced and he took partial profits at 1 tick and the rest at 2 ticks. So he managed to end up with a gross profit of around $1500. At one point he had an unrealized loss of over $4500, before price finally bounced.

That's probably why he hasn't lost since January. If you have a big account, scale in on losers and take profits at 1-4 ticks, you could probably enjoy a winning streak like that as well.

And when he does loose it will be a wipe out of course. Did you actually see him enter orders into a live platform. Martingale betting systems you really need an infinite account to trade with him as the bets grow exponentially and 4 ticks is certainly not gonna be enough.

I have never understood why TTM are seen as 'straight shooters' anyone that takes public domain indicators from the tradestation forums or the old omega list and sells them for $450 a pop (or whatever they cost now) is certainly not a 'straight shooter' in my book. Not only that they are just as likely to practice similar dubious tactics in other parts of their business.

Maybe I am overly sceptical...I think its more likely others are gullible.

Jack I just saw this He trades a real account - you can see his orders appear in the DOM when he starts putting in size.. Are you sure? I presume he obscures his account number or does he? Are you sure it is not sim? If he uses a Martingale betting strategy he will blow up spectacularly. It's not a question of if its a question of when.

[jackb]

Yep, the feedback confirms it...it's nothing but a 300 year old Martingale strategy. I'd lay dimes to donuts that Hoffman isn't even aware he's deploying a martingale. That being the case, then he's certainly ain't going to like hearing the following cold, hard reality:

Using a martingale betting strategy is a good example of a Taleb distribution - the gambler usually wins a small net reward, thus appearing to have a sound strategy. However, the gambler's expected value does indeed remain zero because the small probability that he will suffer a catastrophic loss exactly balances with his expected gain. Players (traders) using the Martingale system do not have any long-term mathematical advantage over any other betting system or even randomly placed bets.

He's simply benefited from the characteristics of trending markets that have been in play over the purported period in which he "hasn't had a losing day." I'm afraid he's deluded himself that he really is a professional trader with a definite edge. There's no question he'll end up with a losing day...a day in which he fires 6, 7 even 8 or more times and yet a bailout never materializes. It's going to be spectacular. And I don't mean that in cruel, Schadenfreude kind of way. This story has been played to the same tune thousands and thousands of times. And it will again, longer after Hoffman's interlude. "While history does not repeat itself, it does rhyme." -- Twain

[jackb]

Blowfish,

Isn't that funny...we were writing essentially the same posts at the same time. Great minds...

[BlowFish]

Ha funny indeed especially since you mentioned Taleb. I was going to say that you don't even need a 'back swan' for it all to result in tears, chances are there will be a 'correction' that is bigger than the account being traded before very long. I can't see many starting out being able to swing 1024 contracts if price goes 10 'units' against you. I'm loath to ask (as I am not that interested) but he/they are not advocating others trade like that are they? If not then why even present it?

[Corey]

Originally Posted by jackb »

.. There's no question he'll end up with a losing day...a day in which he fires 6, 7 even 8 or more times and yet a bailout never materializes. ..

not, if you filter it with time of day, day of week, multiple time frame confirmation and bid/ask volume.

[Tams]

assuming a trendy market,
if you are trading with the moving average,
you can martingale it and the devil can be on your side.
... until the moving average flips without telling you first.