[cunparis]

Originally Posted by UrmaBlume »

As of this writing the ES top of 0707 PST Today 05/21 has been good for 14 pts and shows a definite change in sentiment.

Urma,

can you post your chart for the time around 10 minutes earlier? I got several spikes on my chart and I'm curious if you have the same. Your 7:07 is my 16:07.

[cunparis]

and a half hour later another spike which sent prices up.

[UrmaBlume]

Originally Posted by cunparis »

Urma,can you post your chart for the time around 10 minutes earlier? I got several spikes on my chart and I'm curious if you have the same. Your 7:07 is my 16:07.

Sure.

Here is a shot of the signals given by the intelligent agents described in the OP from just before the local extreme at 0707 until the recent new high.

Gray bars - NO TRADE, blue TradePoints, Long - Red for shorts.

[cunparis]

Originally Posted by UrmaBlume »

Sure.

Here is a shot of the signals given by the intelligent agents described in the OP from just before the local extreme at 0707 until the recent new high.

Gray bars - NO TRADE, blue TradePoints, Long - Red for shorts.

[/CENTER]

Thanks. I would like to see your spikes for 6:45 to 7:07 your time.

[davewolfs]

Just a couple of points.

1. You do not need trade intensity to understand where turning points occur.
2. If you are intimately familiar with the ES, you can get a good understanding of the size of prints which occur at major reversal points.
3. In a Bull as strong as what we had this morning, it was not difficult to understand where to pick pullbacks, all you needed to do was wait for a confirmed change in momentum and price indicators alone were sufficient for this.
4. If you did your homework you would notice that intensity spikes likely took place at High Volume and Low Volume Nodes on a volume profile. Viewing the prints alone at these levels were indicative that heavy volume was being unloaded in these areas in a very tight congested range following up to these points of confluence. You did not need trade intensity to determine this.

There is no "perfect" way to trade and many of the topics described in this thread can be replicated using market delta. If you can understand orderflow and choose areas where you think institutions are likely to participate you can do fine with just the DOM, prints at a given price, delta and a volume profile chart.

Re Urmablume's charts. Whatever they are, the one showing the negative divergence can be replicated using delta momentum in market delta. Perhaps it might not be exact, but the chart that I use looks nearly identical to what UM has posted.

Try watching trade intensity during a bear and it will spike to your hearts desire. These spikes do not necessarily imply that it's time to buy (or sell).

Cheers!

[SIUYA]

Interesting.....I am sure if you can actually front run (otherwise why say this is predictive?) or even tell exactly what goldmans and morgans etc are actually doing in terms of their trades then they would be very happy and interested to hear that.
If you have worked inside some of these places you will understand where they make a lot of their money - market making not trading, OTCs and options. Additionally a lot of the time, they are not 100% sure of where they make their money trading and tracking all their positions.
For a good laugh on this point read the Big short, and have a think about the recent GFC.

I have no problems with indicators that track divergences, volume and the like, it is just as a natural born skeptic find it hard to believe someone can make the claim as fact they are tracking actual orders for certain clients and market participants. I am sure this is not what is being claimed.
As was mentioned, a lot has to do with context and discretion and common sense and this indicator can help visualize elements of that.
(please take this in a positive light of a discussion point, not as an attack on anything in particular, except claims of fact that are next to impossible to prove)

[justtrade01]

So, ultimately, is it possible or not, to differentiate the actions of Big Players at important price points.

Specially after this CME change issue !

Can we reconstruct the Big Lot trades, which are being chopped into small sizes and being fed into the markets as "passive stop trades", or sometimes as "active market trades" also ?

It is not necessary that such big orders get executed into smaller trades within a distance of just a few milliseconds. It might get executed in few seconds interval also, which makes the stuff complex. Otherwise just combining the same direction trades within few milliseconds might have given some results.

[boomerangas]

My answer will be very simple. Any indicator, any ultra high-speed quant trading system, as Urma's system or reproduced TI indicator which i'm using DO NOT provide ultimate edge. You can't automate these things, because the very first channel of the price will wipe out all the earlier profits. Could these things help? For sure yes, but it's not uncommon to see the high intensity spikes near support/resistance levels, for the price just to pop up from here for several ticks and to break support/resistance just a few seconds later. I think UrmaBlume could would agree with it. You can't know who's driving move either commercial, which trades on 240 min timeframe either much larger, which basically trades on weekly timeframe an he covered 1/100 of his position on the spike just to throw price much much lower later. Personally i'm watching support/resistance, spikes near here, delta divergence in MD soft, cumulative delta, but the main thing is VALUE and where do Institutionals plan to accumulate/unload inventory, as i said in earlier posts. Yesterday HUGE short inventory was unloaded at the <1058 level, which was accumulated at 1165-1180 level. Any TI indicator couldn't tell you is it real breakout or just the shorts unloading inventory. So i'd suggest to just observe inventory and cumulative delta studies, or to trade pure order flow. Will it be delta studies, candlestick patterns or pure trendlines any volume/divergence/intensity indicator will be just a 10% helper here. I think the ultimate edge of UrmaBlume studies is not his indicators but himself with 30+ years of expirience, if for sure he is profitable trader.



QUOTE=SIUYA;96936]Interesting.....I am sure if you can actually front run (otherwise why say this is predictive?) or even tell exactly what goldmans and morgans etc are actually doing in terms of their trades then they would be very happy and interested to hear that.
If you have worked inside some of these places you will understand where they make a lot of their money - market making not trading, OTCs and options. Additionally a lot of the time, they are not 100% sure of where they make their money trading and tracking all their positions.
For a good laugh on this point read the Big short, and have a think about the recent GFC.

I have no problems with indicators that track divergences, volume and the like, it is just as a natural born skeptic find it hard to believe someone can make the claim as fact they are tracking actual orders for certain clients and market participants. I am sure this is not what is being claimed.
As was mentioned, a lot has to do with context and discretion and common sense and this indicator can help visualize elements of that.
(please take this in a positive light of a discussion point, not as an attack on anything in particular, except claims of fact that are next to impossible to prove)[/QUOTE]