[ecubru]

Fair enough. In order to conclude the last discussion and try to move on:

1. I also like the intellectual and theoretical discussion so I agree with you
2. I didn' use any timeframe and a lookback period for the charts. I didn't cherry pick the charts I use YOUR example and could have chosen at least 140 other indicators with the +/- the same results.
3. I was using the stochastic as an example just to generate the real discussion because it stuck me when I saw that the Inteligent and Predictive agents charts seemed to be less INTELLIGENT AND PREDICTIVE than a basic canned indicator.
4. I also 100% prefer not to argue about intensity versus a stochastic. But i do wanted to discuss the usefulness if any of the "Inteligent and Predictive agents" In the context of the OP.

So i leave still the questions open. What are the main difference/benefits/shortcomings (not in the way is calculated...) in performance using or reading this "intensity indicator" over any other indicator. Is it just a lot of mumbojumbo to make it things more complicate than they are?

Please don't get personal but get technical. At least for small trader like me, trading is a dynamic process that need to keep the edge often according to market circumstance. so I am interesting in intelligent ideas that can lead to something constructive so I am not interesting in my indicator is better than yours or if you make money with this or that.

I am simply challenging the basic assumptions and the real reasons behind this indicator. If you have good arguments please use them otherwise...

ecubru


So lets do discuss INTELLIGENT AND PREDICTIVE discussion

Originally Posted by cunparis »

Your short signal was after the high. This thread is about "Intelligent & Predictive Agents". A stochastic cannot be predictive because it lags price.

No matter what chart I post, it will be possible to find a timeframe and a lookback period that will give a signal with stochastic. But that doesn't mean one can be profitable trading it. So I prefer not to argue about intensity versus a stochastic. If someone can make money with stochastic then I'm happy for them. I can't.

I don't want to convince anyone that trade intensity is the only way to trade. I find it useful as a warning of potential turning points and I'm simply sharing what I see. I find it very interesting from an intellectual point of view. Why it's happening, who is responsible, and what is their motive I find very fascinating but not necessary to make money with it.

[TheDude]

I agree with these recent posts.

Trade Intensity may or may not tell you that something is going to happen. You just dont know. The reason for this is simply:
-Because you just dont know if the intensity of order flow was entering or exiting.
-Because you just dont know if it was covering or initiating
-A hedge
-The time frame they are operating in,
-Part of a larger order being executed in a different fashion
- etc, etc.

As someone said, nice chat but of no real use when making money.

Besides, only a jub would try to be 'predictive'. A real trader never predicts, but manages probabilities.

Managing probabilities in c-o-n-t-e-x-t is key. Put the spurt of prints in context if you must. One of the major flaws in this concept is that it assumes that which ever party/ies were responsible for the 'signal' therefore have control of the market. It totally disregards the fact that there is always someone bigger in the market than you, no matter who you are or work for, and that they just may have a different opinion or reason than you.

[clmacdougall]

Originally Posted by TheDude »

I agree with these recent posts.

Trade Intensity may or may not tell you that something is going to happen. You just dont know. The reason for this is simply:
-Because you just dont know if the intensity of order flow was entering or exiting.
-Because you just dont know if it was covering or initiating
-A hedge
-The time frame they are operating in,
-Part of a larger order being executed in a different fashion
- etc, etc.

As someone said, nice chat but of no real use when making money.

Besides, only a jub would try to be 'predictive'. A real trader never predicts, but manages probabilities.

Managing probabilities in c-o-n-t-e-x-t is key. Put the spurt of prints in context if you must. One of the major flaws in this concept is that it assumes that which ever party/ies were responsible for the 'signal' therefore have control of the market. It totally disregards the fact that there is always someone bigger in the market than you, no matter who you are or work for, and that they just may have a different opinion or reason than you.

I think UB already made it clear that Trade Intensity was not at all his sole factor for entering a trade, with that said I agree with you that context is extremely important and that Trade Intensity alone provides little or no context, but maybe it provides a trigger point for entering a trade once context has been provided.
For UB it seems that along with other things his HUD which monitors multiple time/volume frames gives him an understanding of market bias and that is his provider for context. The real question becomes, what is his understanding of bias in each time/volume frame? To me this is what's now key!

[justtrade01]

Originally Posted by cunparis »

It's available every 15 minutes. But I can't figure out exactly who is each of the trader categories to make it useful.



Have you read his other threads? The reason he uses intensity is precisely for the reason you describe, smart traders split up their orders. When one sees a series of orders in a very short timeframe (seconds for me, but milliseconds for him) then you can assume they come from the same trader or a similar group of traders.

In his post he said a 2 lot trader never trades 100 lots. In your reply you're saying a 100 lot trader can split his order into 50 2 lots. But he's still a 100 lot trader. What urma is saying is if we see a 100 lot order we know it's not a small retail trader so it's professional. From what I understand, if it's 100 lots on a trade it's more likely to be arb because a smart spec would have split his orders to hide them.

I hope that clears up some points. If I misunderstood anything please let me know.

Is it available every 15 minutes LIVE or if this data is available only at the end of the day in 15 minutes frequency ?
From where can I get this data ?

Thanks