[Tams]

Dubai shock after debt standstill call

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/46b4065c-d...44feabdc0.html


this can be worse than the subprime bust.

[pizzamad]

Originally Posted by Tams »

Dubai shock after debt standstill call

FT.com / Companies / Financial Services - Dubai shock after debt standstill call


this can be worse than the subprime bust.

This is the beginning of the next phase of the bust, and I agree, it will be worse than Sept 08 to March 09 for stocks, Gold, Oil.
What will go up ? The dollar !
Why ? Because people can't get credit and they need cash to survive, so they will sell assets to get dollars. Assets will fall in price (more deflation).
Watch the short covering on the dollar kick in when it gets past 76. This will accelerate equity/gold/oil falls.
Buckle up guys, things are gonna get real nasty.
Forget the Christmas rally. The rally from March to last Monday (11/23) was a bear market rally.
One day you'll be able to buy stuff for 10c on the dollar - hang in there.

P

[Grey1]

Originally Posted by Tams »

Dubai shock after debt standstill call

FT.com / Companies / Financial Services - Dubai shock after debt standstill call


this can be worse than the subprime bust.

I have now read many of the internal over night reports from ( JPM .Goldman .MLynch ) and the problem is not as big as an average trader thinks , of course the spill over effect within UAE is not some thing one could over look but I doubt if this is going to be a next leg down ,, I feel fear element is un warranted and the market should soon continue the move to upside, ( as early as mid next week ) ...I am thinking of going LONG few top quality stocks such as AAPL ,AMZN ,BUCY mid week and hold them till End of DEC..

Program Trading :--

Most program trading use neural net ( dynamic pattern recognition ) and they are dumb in a way, they don't understand the reason for the move but still the move is seen as a down ward sell off and a sell off from highs, is very bearish ( even if we assume the sell off from high is bearish the market has to come back to near the previous high for Double top formation before major correction ) , As a result most intra day activity for the next few days will be on the short side but the fundamental reason for continuation of the previous trend should prevail and we should be above 10500 by xmas,, ( all in my opinion ) ,.

FA explains the reason behind a move TA is blind to the reason and only sees the move,,, don't bet your farm on TA only because if you do then you are setting your farm on fire ,, ( IMHO ) of course

Grey1

IMHO this will not be any where near the subprime bust

[DugDug]

agree with you Grey in terms of it will most likely not be as big or serious.
BUT it definitely shows things are not over.
is it a lobster pot? (a great expression meaning if you throw out a lobster pot and you catch one lobster chances are there are other also there - its just that you cant see them)

I think Dubai was always a bubble and hence its problems will be particularly bad anyway.
For my 2 cents on the market I follow the technicals - and this just makes me skew every thing to the short side. thats all.

[Tams]

Yes, Dubai was always a bubble.
They have little oil, little of anything...
yet they made it big and opulent.
It will be interesting to see how things unfold...

[BlowFish]

Could of equally have posted this in the VSA section (though having been the most active part of the forum it now seems the most dormant).

I was at breakfirst this morning and over heard a couple on the next table flicking through the papers and discussing this. It got me thinking about one of the key tenets of VSA and other conspiracy theorists (only joking VSA guys). The idea goes along the lines that bad news gives an opportunity for accumulation at knock down prices. Seems to me that it was pretty common knowledge that Dubai inc. was in trouble some while ago. Anyway to get to my point I wonder if this is a case of sell the rumour and buy the news? Guess I should have a look on youtube and see whether master trader and god emperor GH has to say on the subject.

I was sceptical of a resort in the desert in the first place though Las Vegas seems to do OK.

[Tams]

when the going gets tough,
the tough goes shopping...

[PeterBrazel]

Let the chips fall.

This is not a Dubai thing. This is a global thing.
Greed in everything left completely unchecked for decades.
Short term [re election] focused Gov't policies.
Gov'ts around the globe have been printing money like its going out of fashion.
"Quantitive Easing" ...what a joke.
Bailing out Banks and large businesses....gee what happened to Capitalism.
The banks have stopped lending money and have, instead invested in the stock market.
Unemployment at record highs in most countries.
Lying cheating, vertically integrating, dominating greedy Public Companies too numerous to name.
One bad fundamental number after another.

And now we have Dubai.
Its just another detonator.

Things need to get worse before any of us can hope that they will get any better. Capitalism has a self cleaning mechanism. Do not consider that the feeble attempts to restrict it will be of any benefit to us.

But maybe its different this time.
These comments from a cynical old man.