[thalestrader]

Here is a potential short opportunity on the EURJPY with entry, stop losses, and profit targets. I would usually have an entry at 134.01, but on a Sunday afternoon I'd might want to see a few more ticks of a break before placeing my chips in the center of the table. Later tonight, once Tokyo opens, then I'd be back to a one tick under/over entry.

Full disclosure: I'm not trading this, and neither is my daughter. We're just spectators right now, and not speculators. This is purely for entertainment purposes only.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Full disclosure: I'm not trading this, and neither is my daughter. We're just spectators right now, and not speculators. This is purely for entertainment purposes only.

If I were in this trade for real, I'd move the stop loss on the whole position to 134.31.

I did decide to "paper trade" this in an fxcm MT4 demo account I've been playing with for the last week.

As you will see, the fill on the "short" was 134.06. This is because I decided to paper trade it after the trade had triggered, so I entered at the market and a bounce resulted in a fill 5 ticks better than I would likely have enjoyed if I had decided to enter on a stop order earlier.

You will also see that the stop loss on the whole position is now 134.31, and that the profit limit orders are each for 1/2 of the position.

Again, this is a demo account, and not a real trade. As I said in the previous post, I am a spectator on this one.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

If I were in this trade for real, I'd move the stop loss on the whole position to 134.31.

I did decide to "paper trade" this in an fxcm MT4 demo account I've been playing with for the last week.

The little rally fizzled at 133.98, and price has made a new low, so stop loss is now 133.99

Take Profits are still open targets.

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

The little rally fizzled at 133.98, and price has made a new low, so stop loss is now 133.99

Take Profits are still open targets.

While not visible on a range chart, the last little rally fizzled at 133.87, and price subsequently made a new session los, so stop loss is no3 133.88.

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

While not visible on a range chart, the last little rally fizzled at 133.87, and price subsequently made a new session los, so stop loss is no3 133.88.

I may have squeezed the stop too tight too quick. Paper trade net $1900 demodollars. Almost hit the first profit target, as price came within 4 ticks; but my dad always tells me that "almost" only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.


Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

I may have squeezed the stop too tight too quick.

I did, I did, I did squeeze the stop too tight.

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Here is what I consider to be a very real gap ... others would say that the gap does not exist and you can just imagine it is not there.

Here is how I would trade this: Sell stop a tick below first five minute low (902.75), with a stop loss above the high of the first five minutes (or the HOD is price makes a higher high prior to making a lower low).

I would be watchful at the blue arrow lines for signs that price was reversing, or to add to the postion on a break.

Will it be a profitable trade? I do not know. But I have an entry, I have a stop loss, and I have potential profit targets. Anyone can see these without needing to learn anything terribly esoteric.

If the gap does not begin to fill within the first 15 -20 minutes of trading, I anticipate (anticipate, not predict) that it will not fill today, and that price will close in the direction of the gap, and that there is a high liklihood of a trend day down whereby the market opens at or near its high and closes at or near its low.

Well this is not real time, but it is the same situation as the ES trade I posted last week on a different thread here at TL. I know there are those who deny that gaps exits, either because there is continuous trade through the globex session or because they "imagine" and "slide" price at the open back to the rpior day's close. However, I have had too much success over the years by paying attention to gaps between prior day session close and the current session open.

Today the ES gapped down. I was not in this morning, so I did not make this trade. My entry would have been a sell stop one tick below the first five minute low with my stop loss 1 tick above the high. The assumption would be that the market would close at he opposite end of its daily range in the direction of the gap.

By the time I got to my desk, price had rallied off the low, and that rally had fizzled at 887.25-888.50. I entered short at 885 and ended up covering at 880.75. The exit was not my best, but I tried to play cute with the stop and got burned. It happens.

[thalestrader]

The USDCHF is up against resistance. If it gets above resistance, then price likely heads for a test of 1.0954.

If price instead prints a low and a lower high, then a test of 1.0869-77 would be likely.

I'm not trading it, just making an observation.