[fxThunder]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Limit filled at 1.3530...



Best Wishes,

Thales

Hi Thales,

See no one else has asked the questions so I will then...

What was the basis for that trade and how did you arrive at your entry limit price? Is this a support / resistance play or fib pullback?

Cheers,
eNQ

[DugDug]

Two interesting longer term Fib levels coming up in the AUDUSD.
If short using a longer term runner, these are a place I would normally look to lighten off a little. (at present I have no positions - paper trading is getting be back on track though )

Fib retracement levels previously show some chop at similar levels between 50-61.8%. Plus the 100% fib extension of the last few days moves co-incides with the same levels. can save some heartache if it rebounds even only intraday... they can be big.
(additionally if the AUDUSD really starts to capitulate from here targets of about 70 maybe in order?



\

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

At any rate, the drop to a new low below 1.3577 makes for a new MFE of +3R on the trade, so I have lowered the stop on the entire position to +2R ...

+2R

Best Wishes,

Thales

[patrader]

15m 6B

[fxThunder]

looking for a long on GU currently.

edit: entry triggered

[fxThunder]

Showing GU entry and adjusted targets.

Cheers,
eNQ

[fxThunder]

Well, GU reached my 1st target and then retraced to test my entry. Subsequently it rallied slowly to the downtrendline where it stalled.

It is late in the day and as price has clearly run out of fuel I closed the balance of my trade.

Cheers,
eNQ

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by EminiNQtrader »

See no one else has asked the questions so I will then...

What was the basis for that trade and how did you arrive at your entry limit price? Is this a support / resistance play or fib pullback?

Look at the 240 minute 6E below:




Here is the 240 minute 6E - I wanted to sell a test of the pivot level (see red arrow) and marked by the horizontal line.

Why?

Well, I have made no secret that I use the Taylor Book method as part of my trading. I have made no secret that I subscribe to richbois's TTT service.

Today was a Buy Day for the EURUSD. So, what do we expect on a Buy Day? We expect a decline.

A decline, you say? But wouldn't we expect a rally on a Buy Day?

Well, that depends upon where price is in relation to its most recent highs and lows of its most recent 3-day cycle. For the most part, on a Buy Day, you should expect a decline, i.e. weakness, into which Pros will be buying. Conversely, on a Short Sale day, we expect at least a rally testing the Buy Day or Sell Day high, and during strong cycles, we expect rallies, i.e. strength, into which pros sell. In general, then I expect lower prices on Buy days, and higher prices on Sell Short days. Again, in general. It all depends upon where price is in relation to its current trading cycle.

All this to say the following: According to richbois's TTT Book for the EURUSD, price had a 100% chance of price making a low of 1.3450 today. Here is a screen shot captured directly from the report he emailed me last night:



For what its worth, there was a bear flag off of yesterday's 123 short sequence on the 15 minute that broke to the downside last night at about 7 PM EST last night. My short entry was 1.3539, and my profit target was 1.3559 - with 100% odds of price trading to 1.3450, I felt it was a good target. TTT is part of that "rich context" I have been accused of using to plan my trades. I confess that it is. But I have always admitted as much.




Anyway, back to this afternoon's short: Price on the 6E made a low at 1.3451 soon after the Frankfurt open (the spot did trade to 1.3450 as TTT called for). My experience has been that when the German and London traders get a chance to buy on the Buy day at or near the projected TTT low, then the NY traders usually do not let the trading cycle rally get its legs until they have a chance to Buy at or near that low, so price often looks for a recently broken pivot low to test as resistance (in this case 1.3531), and then dives for the TTT day low. Sometimes it overshoots (which is what I was playing for) and sometimes, like today, if comes up 10-20 pips short (15 pips, to be exact).

Now, had price made it back to the TTT low, I'd have cashed my short out and I promise you I'd be sitting on a long right now. Price did not get back to the 1.3450 level, and so, as luck would have it, I am short from 1.3562 and looking for 30 ticks at 1.3232. I did the trade in the ninja demo account as well (I am trying to do my trades in the Ninjatrader account as well so I can show the chart with fills for those who apparently have made a career out of harassing me and others who participate in this thread).



I would like to point out to the few idiots out there who do not know how to read and follow along that that this post is explaining in hindsight the short trade that was called in this thread this afternoon in real time.

Best Wishes,

Thales