[subterfuge]

Interesting Thales. I pretty much soley trade the ES and so take special notice of your ES posts as i check this thread throughout the day.

When you posted your long I even thought "this doesn't seem like a 'thales' type trade" lol. I was actually short at the time aswell, so I was hoping for a rare loser from you!!
However, I was nearly tempted to take some off the table. Not just because of your post, but statistically Thursdays have the best probability of a gap fill, and a gap of less than 3 handles (like today) fills the gap a very large percentage of the time, so the gap fill had a lot going for it today. As it turned out it was a rare failure for both the gap statistic play and your trade!

Having said that, I made some losing trades in the evning session and ended about BE for the day. Found myself getting chopped up again as seems to be the case for me recently. Generally up about 4 points from globex trades and maybe a trade after teh open, and then tend to give most of them back later. Im looking at moving to a slightly larger timeframe possible. Too many trades and too many false breaks.

Anyway, thanks for your updates.

[thalestrader]

Post 55 of this thread shows another example of a gap down trend day. I also psoted an ES trade somehwere here (and by here I mean at TL, but not on this thread) where I followed the market down after an opening gap. I do not know in which thread I posted it, but if you can find it, that would be the example as to how to trade a day like today.

Today I traded stupid.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[forrestang]

Originally Posted by forrestang »

I usually don't watch currencies in the day. But what do you fine gentlemen think about these two scenarios?

Blue line is the breakdown through support for the short.

Green line is the first anticipated area where price would find support.

And notice on a macro level, each High circled w/the red dot is right at about the 50% retracement from the major swing High to Low.


------EDIT--------
I just noticed after posting, G/J might have some support sooner than the line I posted. It's slightly to the left, that little wedge that we based an entry the other day off of.

G/J trade broke out well. Half off at first green line for a few more than 30Pips, other half stop at BE.

G/U initiated but it is dragging ass and sitting at entry.

[forrestang]

Here's an update.

I was able to update the G/J to a stop better than BE above a recent swing high. Came within a few ticks of the 2nd target.

The G/U is not moving with the expediency I would like to see, but finally started moving slightly. I have adjusted the stop to at least a reasonable point should it become a loser.


-------EDIT------ 19:09CST _ New picture posted
The red lines are just me moving my stop on my charts so I don't have to keep recreating the lines in Snagit.

G/J hit the second target!

G/U finally got some good movement on it. Adjusting stop down to 1.5932.

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by forrestang »

G/J trade broke out well. Half off at first green line for a few more than 30Pips, other half stop at BE.

G/U initiated but it is dragging ass and sitting at entry.

Nice trade, Forrest! Price did break out nicely.

Looking at the GBPUSD, look how price is currently finding support at the double bottom buy point from the other day. This does not mean thaty price will not break below that point. It may or may not work its way lower. But it does show that that buy point was not just another random price level in the middle of nowhere - traders used that level as a signal that the trend was turning up. Traders who missed the first opportunity to buy there (the breakout) are now using that level as a pullback entry.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[Gabe2004]

Originally Posted by forrestang »

Here's an update.

I was able to update the G/J to a stop better than BE above a recent swing high. Came within a few ticks of the 2nd target.

The G/U is not moving with the expediency I would like to see, but finally started moving slightly. I have adjusted the stop to at least a reasonable point should it become a loser.

The red lines are just me moving my stop on my charts so I don't have to keep recreating the lines in Snagit.

G/J hit the second target!

G/U finally got some good movement on it. Adjusting stop down to 1.5932.

It seems that trading 2 instruments in parallel would have worked in your favour.
Pairs involving the GBP seem to outperform pairs with EUR in them

Gabe

[forrestang]

Originally Posted by Gabe2004 »

It seems that trading 2 instruments in parallel would have worked in your favour.
Pairs involving the GBP seem to outperform pairs with EUR in them

Gabe

I am usually the last to catch on, what do you mean?

[forrestang]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Nice trade, Forrest! Price did break out nicely.

Looking at the GBPUSD, look how price is currently finding support at the double bottom buy point from the other day. This does not mean thaty price will not break below that point. It may or may not work its way lower. But it does show that that buy point was not just another random price level in the middle of nowhere - traders used that level as a signal that the trend was turning up. Traders who missed the first opportunity to buy there (the breakout) are now using that level as a pullback entry.

Best Wishes,

Thales

This G/U is stubborn. If you are still around, can you explain how you would be managing this trade if you were in it, similiar to your comments last night?

This trade has printed a HL, on a move down. As it sits now, loss would be about 14-16 pips or so if it hits the current stop(1.5932) w/o moving down. My thoughts are basically, since this hasn't continued to move down hard, I would want to see a press down with an opportunity to get the stop to BE.

The entry was at 1.5914. Tgt was down near 1.5855.

Along w/your comments last night, I suppose something I was always thinking in terms of management was sitting through at least 1 retracement in order to pull the stop closer. And generally managing the trades with pullbacks if that makes sense? With the trades I spoke of and referred to as false BOs, they never really yielded any retracements before falling on their faces.

------EDIT-------
G/U hit the stop for a 14pip loss