[thalestrader]

ES is now stalling at the aforementioned 32.50-28.50 support.

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Today was unusual in that rather than hold my short from the break of the first 5 minute low, I stopped and reversed at what I had anticipated to be support...

I can only imagine that it is my present condition of lack of sleep and abundance of stress, but I am going to try once more to fight this decline with a long. If I lose on this one, I will be negative on the day on the ES (right now I am slightly ahead +6.25/+6.25/-3.5/-4) and I won't touch it again until tomorrow.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

I can only imagine that it is my present condition of lack of sleep and abundance of stress, but I am going to try once more to fight this decline with a long. If I lose on this one, I will be negative on the day on the ES (right now I am slightly ahead +6.25/+6.25/-3.5/-4) and I won't touch it again until tomorrow.

Best Wishes,

Thales

My approach to the ES today is terrible. I have no idea why I would try twice to trade completely opposite of the manner I know to be best for me. I am bring my stop to -.75 on the whole position. If it sinks back there then whether it rallies or not, I just want to be done with this thing today.

Update: out -.75/-.75 (+6.25/+6.25/-3.5/-4.0/-.75/-.75)

Total for the day +3.5 or +1.75/contract after three trades ... and to think, I had a closed profit of +12.50 or +6.25/contract a mere 40 minutes in to the day session.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[forrestang]

I usually don't watch currencies in the day. But what do you fine gentlemen think about these two scenarios?

Blue line is the breakdown through support for the short.

Green line is the first anticipated area where price would find support.

And notice on a macro level, each High circled w/the red dot is right at about the 50% retracement from the major swing High to Low.


------EDIT--------
I just noticed after posting, G/J might have some support sooner than the line I posted. It's slightly to the left, that little wedge that we based an entry the other day off of.

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by forrestang »

I usually don't watch currencies in the day. But what do you fine gentlemen think about these two scenarios?

Blue line is the breakdown through support for the short.

Green line is the first anticipated area where price would find support.

And notice on a macro level, each High circled w/the red dot is right at about the 50% retracement from the major swing High to Low.


------EDIT--------
I just noticed after posting, G/J might have some support sooner than the line I posted. It's slightly to the left, that little wedge that we based an entry the other day off of.

Hi Forrest,

I see what you are seeing. Just be aware that any breakouts that occur between now and tomorrow's NFP data release may be shallow and may reverse at nearby S/R. Of course, there is nothing to say that any breakouts may not travel for 100's of ticks, either. But from what I have seen, the 24 hours preceding NFP and the 24 hours preceding Fed Minutes more often than not produce range contraction and coiling, and most breakouts serve only to better define a range rather than representing a break out of or tradable expansion of the current range. As always, there are always exceptions to the rules.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[forrestang]

Do you usually stand aside during such times?

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by forrestang »

Do you usually stand aside during such times?

No, not necessarily, as the market will often show its hand before the news. But on a breakout you should expect price to move swiftly in your favor. If you buy or sell a breakout and price goes no where, or simply drifts, then it might be wise to consider whether or not to keep the trade open or whether you should close it and wait for further direction from price.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

My approach to the ES today is terrible.

Hi Folks,

I would advise anyone who follows this thread to use my trading of the ES today as a lesson on how not to trade.

1) I shorted the break of the low of the first 5 minutes on a gap open lower. I have discussed gap trades elsewhere. I have made more profits off of paying heed to gaps and the TVGR (Trader Vic Gap Rule). If a gap is not filled within the first 15 minutes, it will likely not be filled that day. Trade in the direction of the gap. I should have been adding to my position at breaks of support. Instead ...

2) ...As seen from the chart, the areas I identified as Support zones were accurate. The initial decline found temporary support at 1036.25, which was the lower boundary of the 36.25-39.25 support zone represented by the upper rectangle. I covered my short and reversed to a long position here. I should have held my position, and added with a sell stop at 1036. And if that wasn;t bad enough ...

3) ... Price fell to the next support level, where again, I tried to fade the trend. As you can see, this support zone contained nearly the whole of price action from 11:30 AM EDT until moments before the close.

I had the relevant S/R levels clearly identified. But knowing where S/R is means little if you do not trade price action as it plays itself out. I clearly traded S/R, but I did not trade price. As Db would say, price reaching an S/R level is not in and of itself a signal to do anything. Price action was clearly pointing to lower prices. I was blindly buying when had I just opened my eyes, I'd have been selling all day long.

What I did right today was I shorted the break of the first 5 minute low. I held to a logical support level, and the profit was 6.25 points/contract. When I did go long (and today it was wrong to be long) what I did right was I cut my losses. As a result, even though I only profited on 1/3 ES trades, my net for the day was still 1.75 ES points/contract traded.

What I did wrong was that absolutely disregarded what I know to be as safe and sure a play as there is: A gap open that does not fill, especially one that extends immediately in the direction of the gap, tends to auger trend days, where the market opens at one end of its range and closes at the other.

I do not mind losing trades. Losses happen and are part of the game. I do mind trading like the me of 10 years ago. I know better.

The only explanation I can find is that I have had little sleep and much sadness over the great loss our family has suffered this past week. But that is no excuse.

I'm taking tomorrow off.

Best Wishes,

Thales