[MidKnight]

Probed the near-term R once again before a large sell-off. Immediate trend remains intact. Has dropped deeply into the support area putting me in a position where I am not very sure if it will hold or not. I'm not game enough to do any serious longs in this support area and also not game enough to do any serious shorting unless we break this low from 3 days ago. In a bit of no mans land for me. Will look for obvious scalps predominantly or possibly some light shorts testing the low before yesterdays spike high in the 1.5660 area.

[MidKnight]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

...Yesterday I gave the example of one trader with a 1.4 avg R and a 60% winning percentage compared to a trader with a 6R avg win and only a 33% winning percentage. Who would you rather be? Well, measured by nominal $'s won, you'd want to be the trader with the 6R average, even if it meant most of your trades would be losses....

I honestly couldn't say which trader I would rather be without knowing the frequency. To really assess which is better one needs to know the frequency. Your 6R example may only do a handful of trades a month but the 1.4R guy may do a handful a day. Who would you rather be? I'd pick the 1.4R guy!

With kind regards,
MK

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Looking at the Dow daily, I was somewhat surprised to find a pattern not unlike what is commonly referred to as a bull flag ...

Nothing has changed ... small decline off yesterday's close, on diminishing volume. A quick look around the 'net and seems like everywhere no matter what the Dow does, the interpretation is that there is more down trending to come. Maybe. But as MidK says, there are two sides of any coin, and right now, the coin is balanced on its edge. It will fall, but right now, I see no reason why it must come up Bears rather than Bulls. It seems to me it can go either way at this point.



Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

The dollar did not make new uptrend highs, nor did the Euro make new downtrend lows. It looks, at the very least, that the correction of the prevailing trends that was suspected a few days ago is indeed occurring...

However, another possibility is that the rally off the November 2009 low was itself a correction against the larger down trend off the March 2009 high, and that the down trend is ready to resume. ...
I would expect Euro strength, dollar weakness over the coming days/weeks.

No change with the US Dollar either ... If the dollar continues to a new high, then I think he odds favor that the recent uptrend does represent a change in the Dollar's intermediate to long term prospects. This new uptrend high could occur tomorrow, or after a deeper correction of the recent rally. Should a correction break and hold below 76.60, then the odds increase that the recent rally was itself counter trend, and the down trend may be resuming.



Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Gold also looks as though it may be setting itself up for a rally ...





Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Current look at the EURUSD/6E ...



Best Wishes,

Thales

[jonbig04]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Current look at the EURUSD/6E ...

Thales

Are you concerned at all about the 1.384 area acting as R?

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by jonbig04 »

Are you concerned at all about the 1.384 area acting as R?

Cognizant of it rather than concerned, I'd say. I'll go to break even should price trade to 1.3840-3850.

Best Wishes,

Thales