[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

As far as the ES, price was coiling at a prior low after the large range impulse decline from the open...

What I left unsaid was this: When price coils into a tight range after a substantial move, it is either preparing to continue the move or reverse it. Price will not sit still for long, as someone is right and someone else is trapped. Do not be distracted by the triangle as it is mere coincidence. The proximity of S/R and the behavior of price at that level is what crates the opportunity.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by subterfuge »

you're annoyingly good thales

If I were that good I'd still be long instead of being flat.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[Gabe2004]

My latest entry.
Firtst 1/3 target hit.

Gabe

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by forrestang »

My question is, does anyone spy a reason that might preclude one from taking the trades at the top, but being interested in the ones at the bottom?

Hi Forrest,

First of all, your charts are much improved - much easier to see what you are looking at with this color scheme.

While the EURUSD and GBPUSD had larger rallies, I do not know if it is right to characterize the rallies on the EURJPY (approx +48 ticks from BO to rally high) and the GBPJPY (approx +45 ticks from BO to rally high) being failed BO's. Each broke through a near term resistance point and each rallied into an observable zone of resistance. Not every breakout is going to run for 100+ ticks or more.

One thing I would like to clarify is this: When I say that one needs to cut one's losses and let one's profits run, I do not mean that you should let your profits run into a loss. If price moves +40 or more ticks from your entry, by all means move your stop to capture some of that profit!

You see, there is a difference between the trader who moves his or her stop loss to, say, +7 ticks after price has moved to +20, and the trader who hurriedly exits out at market with a +7 tick profit because price has slipped 5 ticks after having made an inital +12 tick move on the breakout. For example, I shorted the 6B today 1.6020. Price dropped to 1.6006, and then bounced to 1.6017, and then declined again, but held above 1.6006. I moved my stop to breakeven, and I was stopped out at breakeven. Price rallied to 1.6046 and then weakened. I again sold short at 1.6005. As price declined in my favor, I continually moved my stop down, trailing the market by 10-15 ticks. If you look at a 1 minute chart of the 6B, you should be able to figure out how and why I allowed myself to get stopped out at 1.5955. The low of the session was 1.5941, and after I was stopped out, I do not believe price traded lower than 1.5952.

What's my point? My point is that you need to let your profits run. But, you need to keep your profits as well. You do not want to be the trader who gets scared and markets out with a handful of ticks at best. But you also do not want to be the trader who catches a breakout and watches it run 100 ticks without pause and then watches as it runs to a 20 tick loss waiting for price to catch itself and provide a natural stopping point. Now, how to trail a stop so as to keep the trade alive while not giving up more open trade equity than you have to is not something that I can easily describe. If I catch a big move off the breakout, I will usually drop down to a 1 minute chart to manage the trade. I also use the one minute chart if the trade does not act as I anticipated. I had a short trade on the 6E a week or so ago where I was stopped in at I think 1.4472, and price halted its decline at about 1.4468. I then watched as price very clearly, distinctly, and smoothly traced out a little rally high to 1.4476 and then declined to 1.4471, where it paused, and pasued, and paused, dancing around 1.4471-4473. Guess where my stop went? It went from about a -40 tick stop to a -5 tick stop at 1.4477, where I was stopped out. As it happens, rather than breakdown or break up, the 6E instead traded in a 40-50 tick range until well into the next day.

Was that a "failed" breakout? I guess it was as close to a failure to act as anticipated as I have ever experienced absent some external news-driven catalyst. However, identified properly, most break outs will see price travel to at least the next logical S/R level before reversing back through the break out point. Knowing this, manage your trades and trail your stops accordingly.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[Gabe2004]

2nd 1/3 was closed manually as I saw some abnormal chart activity.
Turns out there were news from Japan (retail sale) after which the market started to turn down and i modified the stop loss to retain some of my profit on the last 3rd.
Not too happy with the trade but market conditions dictated a change in the plan.

Gabe

[thalestrader]

Hi Folks,

A last look at the GBPUSD before bed. A short at 1.5940 with a target of 1.5850 and a 1.5981 stop loss looks good to me.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[forrestang]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Hi Folks,

A last look at the GBPUSD before bed. A short at 1.5940 with a target of 1.5850 and a 1.5981 stop loss looks good to me.

Best Wishes,

Thales

I've got that with a different initial target, along with a E/U short if it goes off. R:R on both as i have them aren't great.

[forrestang]

Originally Posted by forrestang »

I've got that with a different initial target, along with a E/U short if it goes off. R:R on both as i have them aren't great.

Wow, something weird going on with the E/U pair, but target was hit!!