[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Looking for a short anytime now ... it will either be a short sequence on the 15 minute or a new break low ...

Still looking ... I put a sell stop below the spike low on the NFP announcement, but canceled it with the new bounce/rally high. I apparently was so convinced of my opinion that the direction would be down, that I did not see this as a long sequence. Usually I at least see the possibility, and then choose to do nothing. This time, I did not even let myself "see" this as a long. Though I did not lose anything this time, it is still a clear violation of Rule Number 49 - "Lose your opinion, not your money."


Best Wishes,

Thales

[Cory2679]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

I apparently was so convinced of my opinion that the direction would be down, that I did not see this as a long sequence.

I had something similar happen to me just now. I saw this clear long sequence on the EUR/USD, but didn't consider it for a trade because of what I thought I knew about the fundamental/economic situation...I expected further declines. (I wasn't up for the initial entry, but I considered an entry when it gave the opportunity).

Would have been a BE effort anyway, but still. That's the first time I've ever done that.

It's funny...it's like the chart new before the news came out!

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by MidKnight »

In talking about trading off various degrees, I think I have seen you mention that it is a mistake to enter off the smaller degree and manage it from the smaller degree (or was it manage from the larger degree?) with the intent of trading for the larger degree. You said something like most do that way and it is a mistake. I wonder if you could elaborate on that thinking?

I believe the points I would emphasize are these:

1) Be aware of the size of the swings you are using to get into the market. The ensuing moves, i.e. what you can reasonably expect by way of maximum favorable excursion (MFE) for the trade will be in proportion to those swings. Do not enter a short sequence visible on a 5 minute chart and expect profits the size you would expect on a similar sequence visible on a 60 minute chart.

2) If you are using a smaller degree to "anticipate" a higher degree break out, then accept that any profit may disappear to a loss if the larger degree breakout fails to materialize.

3) If you are taking a breakout of a sequence visible on a 15 minute chart, do not manage trailing stops on a lower degree, with the exception that if a lower degree adverse reversal appears soon after entry, and with very little MFE, then use the small degree to exit, but have a plan to re-enter in the original direction if the larger degree move you anticipated re-asserts itself.

If there were something else I had said to which you are referring, you will need to find the post. I remember the discussion, and I think I even remember the charts I used (6E/EURUSD at a double top discussing two back to back short sequences and showing various degrees of swing), but I do not remember where the post is. This has become quite a large thread, and at some point, I do intend to perhaps move/reiterate certain points either in a thread of their own, or utilizing TL's blog features to make it easier for us to reference the material.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

...I did not see this as a long sequence...

But, as it is a long sequence, not doing anything fancy but throwing some fib expansions on to see where it might be heading without respect for chart points. Right now the trade, had I taken it, would be at BE. I would usually take profits at or close to a chart point corresponding to the 1.618, but in this case, I maybe would have used that as BE, and played for the higher points noted on the chart. All of thisis conjecture, because I am not in the trade.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[Cory2679]

GBP/USD possibly resuming downtrend?

(Break of the spike-low from the employment situation news.)

EDIT: Struggling to break through support. This isn't the best R/R situation, either.

EDIT2: Updated chart...moved SL...

EDIT3: Updated chart...PT1 hit, moved stop on second half...

[Cory2679]

Originally Posted by Cory2679 »

GBP/USD possibly resuming downtrend?

(Break of the spike-low from the employment situation news.)

EDIT: Struggling to break through support. This isn't the best R/R situation, either.

EDIT2: Updated chart...moved SL...

EDIT3: Updated chart...PT1 hit, moved stop on second half...

Stopped on second half for +19.6...

[Cory2679]

Potential EUR/JPY long...

Similar sequence on the USD/JPY, as well.

[jonbig04]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

But, as it is a long sequence, not doing anything fancy but throwing some fib expansions on to see where it might be heading without respect for chart points. Right now the trade, had I taken it, would be at BE. I would usually take profits at or close to a chart point corresponding to the 1.618, but in this case, I maybe would have used that as BE, and played for the higher points noted on the chart. All of thisis conjecture, because I am not in the trade.

Best Wishes,

Thales

Would you be concerned at all about the 67 area acting as R? I only ask because I personally will be looking for shorts around there.