[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by subterfuge »

I think maybe he's confused because the 2b long trades are sort of in contradiction with most of the trade setups you post where you are generally shorting on a break of a previous low, whereas this setup almost 'fades' the break.

However, in the chart he posted I also noticed what you noticed in terms of the overall trend direction

There are instances where a short trade taken on a break to a new low reverses, and becomes instead a double bottom, in which case the double bottom's buy point is also the short trade's stop loss, and so becomes a stop and reverse situation. However, more often is the case where the first low of the double bottom represents a test of the upper boundary of a zone of support, and the second low is merely a probe or poke lower into that support, but not a break of support.

Also, these probes lower often come in threes, so if one sees a decline losing momentum, with each probe lower preceded by price action that seems more to drift sideways to lower, rather than impulsing lower, then shorting breaks would be lower probability trades.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[Gabe2004]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

There are instances where a short trade taken on a break to a new low reverses, and becomes instead a double bottom, in which case the double bottom's buy point is also the short trade's stop loss, and so becomes a stop and reverse situation. However, more often is the case where the first low of the double bottom represents a test of the upper boundary of a zone of support, and the second low is merely a probe or poke lower into that support, but not a break of support.

Also, these probes lower often come in threes, so if one sees a decline losing momentum, with each probe lower preceded by price action that seems more to drift sideways to lower, rather than impulsing lower, then shorting breaks would be lower probability trades.

Best Wishes,

Thales

Confusion resolved

Gabe

[Gabe2004]

Originally Posted by subterfuge »

I think maybe he's confused because the 2b long trades are sort of in contradiction with most of the trade setups you post where you are generally shorting on a break of a previous low, whereas this setup almost 'fades' the break.

However, in the chart he posted I also noticed what you noticed in terms of the overall trend direction

This was my confusion but I should have explained it better, like you did.

Take care

Gabe

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by Gabe2004 »

Confusion resolved

Gabe

Are you sure? You do realize that the double bottoms in the charts I posted represented long trade opportunities, and they are not "failed" short trades reversed to long trades.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[Gabe2004]

Additional 2 trades from last night.
Thanks to this thread i am noticing a slight change in my trading.
As noted in Thales' well taken comment about me taking profits at 7 ticks last night my average profit was closer to 20 pips and the time in a trade went up to over 1 hour compared with a few minutes in the recent past.

Gabe

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Last night I made a quick note on the GBPUSD chart that implied a rally may have been imminent. The first chart is the market as it looked when I went to bed. The second chart is a shot from soon after I woke this morning. The third chart I just took now because I wanted to adjust the arrows drawn the night before and also label the Low, High, Higher Low that created the long entry opportunity. Price does indeed show you where it is going before it gets there.

Best Wishes,

Thales

Hi Folks,

Here is a screen capture updating the GBPUSD charts posted in post #374. Again, use price action around S/R levels to identify trade opportunities (in this case, highs, lows, higher highs, higher lows), and then use S/R as a map to guide your management of the trade. Price is its own leading indicator, and it is the only indicator that will reveal where it is likely heading.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[Gabe2004]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Are you sure? You do realize that the double bottoms in the charts I posted represented long trade opportunities, and they are not "failed" short trades reversed to long trades.

Best Wishes,

Thales

On second note, maybe not completely (confusion not completely resolved)
I will re-read the related post from your post #398.
In the context of the article from IBD I understood that you were showing LONG setups.
What I am not clear about is that at the time that LOWER HIGHs were forming and you showed us set ups where if a LOWER HIGH is formed. one would be advised to take a SHORT below the most recent LH.
So in your chart (that I circled 2 areas in it) I was wondering how would one know that those apparent SHORT setups are not to be taken.

I maybe slow this morning but I was up till almost 4AM

Thanks again

Gabe

[thalestrader]

Hi Folks,

Yen futures 6J waiting for decision time ...

Best Wishes,

Thales