[thalestrader]

EURUSD certainly not a convincing move. I wouldn't comfortable with being short or long at this point, and I would rather wait for a more clear indication of the market's intentions. The pattern had me expecting a decent rally, so a break to new lows could carry down to that March 2009 high rather quickly - Not predicting, just thinking out loud.

But if I had to predict, I'd be predicting 1.3740 by the time NY opens if the EURUSD breaks and holds below 1.3850. But I'm not predicting.

I Pulled the rip cord on the 6J, and will wait for the next opportunity. If you were to pull up a 1 minute chart you can probably figure out where the rip cord got yanked.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

EURUSD certainly not a convincing move. I wouldn't comfortable with being short or long at this point...

Changed my mind and decided I'd feel fine putting on the bear suit - here is my position:

Short at 1.3866 - sorry for the late post, but price is still within 7 ticks of entry - lots for me to watch right now so no chart. Be watching for 3 drives down for bounce, and targets TBD, but I'll hold some for 1.3740. Be back soon.

Best Wishes,

Thales

8:51 6E 59/61 - SL at 66

8:56 SL 66, filled 65, current 68/69

[traverse]

looking for some help here.
I'm doing a trial with fxcm, took the long trade on eur/usd. I'm also tracking the 6Ewith ninjatrader. Can someone explain why ninja's doesnt have the same data at this sessions open. Is it because it's a different contract? I checked ninja settings and it is set for 24hours.

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by traverse »

looking for some help here.
I'm doing a trial with fxcm, took the long trade on eur/usd. I'm also tracking the 6Ewith ninjatrader. Can someone explain why ninja's doesnt have the same data at this sessions open. Is it because it's a different contract? I checked ninja settings and it is set for 24hours.

FXCM opens for trading before Globex opens for 6E. The spot was trading for at least an hour before Globex opened.

Also, when you track bucket shop to bucket shop you will find that there will be small differences between their data feeds.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Hi Folks,

I am having trouble with Ninjatrader. I had some notes and details on the EURUSD chart and before I could snap a shot Ninjacrashed and of course, when I restarted it, all the new notes were gone.

I was trying to explain the 6E short in relation to the spot EURUSD and the "3 pushes" that patrader and others have shown throughout the thread. I do not have it in me to re-do the chart. Suffice it to say that I expected a quick drop to the trendline shown here, and when that did not materialize, I quickly put my stop to break even.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[Cory2679]

Hey Thales,

I have some questions, if ya don't mind.

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

She was trading "Super Crazy Rodeo Clown" leverage in the beginning. She started with $25, so even on a microlot trade with an initial risk of 50 ticks she was risking 20%.

My question is...why? Why start with that much risk per trade? It's a gamble...you'd better get pretty lucky in the beginning. EDIT: or rather, as jonbig has pointed out below, it's not really that you would need to get lucky, it's that you just couldn't afford to get unlucky.

If it were reasonable/sustainable, she'd still be trading with that size! You said yourself a couple posts back that you've had -2R days before. Risking 20% or even 40% (like the recent $25 account you were playing with), nobody will last long.

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

I think for a small daytrading account 1-2% is a good risk parameter, though .5% is probably ideal.

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

She now risks a maximum 2% per trade.

Why not just start this way in the beginning?

I understand that theoretically if you truly only had $25, then you have no choice, but why not start her with $250 or even $500? That way, you could still be risking the same $$$ amount, but it would be only 1-2% rather than 20%...it's a reasonable and sustainable practice...you could sustain a drawdown.

I ask because I was thinking about my own trading...I was thinking if I'd want a chance at replicating her initial results, I'd have to trade with huge risk. So I thought if I wanted to do that, maybe I ought to open a $25 account so if I wiped it out, it wouldn't be a big deal.

Then I thought, really what's the point? I should just trade my $250 account with reasonable leverage, instead. Trading a tiny account with huge leverage won't do anything to help me, really. It might be "fun" but I don't see how it'd be any more productive.

So of course this lead me to...well, why did Thales start her that way? I was just curious of your thought process with all that.

Thanks,

Cory

[MidKnight]

Originally Posted by Cory2679 »

My question is...why? Why start with that much risk per trade? It's a gamble...you'd better get pretty lucky in the beginning.

I asked this and stated the same thing about luck a couple of days back was never replied to. Breaking from my 'demanding' nature I decided to leave it alone, but since you brought it back up......

With kind regards,
MK

[jonbig04]

Originally Posted by Cory2679 »

Hey Thales,

I have some questions, if ya don't mind.



My question is...why? Why start with that much risk per trade? It's a gamble...you'd better get pretty lucky in the beginning.

If it were reasonable/sustainable, she'd still be trading with that size! You said yourself a couple posts back that you've had -2R days before. Risking 20% or even 40% (like the recent $25 account you were playing with), nobody will last long.





Why not just start this way in the beginning?

I understand that theoretically if you truly only had $25, then you have no choice, but why not start her with $250 or even $500? That way, you could still be risking the same $$$ amount, but it would be only 1-2% rather than 20%...it's a reasonable and sustainable practice...you could sustain a drawdown.

I ask because I was thinking about my own trading...I was thinking if I'd want a chance at replicating her initial results, I'd have to trade with huge risk. So I thought if I wanted to do that, maybe I ought to open a $25 account so if I wiped it out, it wouldn't be a big deal.

Then I thought, really what's the point? I should just trade my $250 account with reasonable leverage, instead. Trading a tiny account with huge leverage won't do anything to help me, really. It might be "fun" but I don't see how it'd be any more productive.

So of course this lead me to...well, why did Thales start her that way? I was just curious of your thought process with all that.

Thanks,

Cory

Math has never been my strong point, but it seems like 20% risk is only part of the equation. With decent accuracy and decent R/R you wouldn't need to get lucky, you just couldn't afford to get unlucky. Right?