[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by forrestang »

But here is the question, you said you like to see(for a long), a H-LH-LL that will take you out early. My question is this scenario occurred around points 3-5. But my exit was prior to this occurring. Is this rationale correct on what may have seen you exit the trade? And in this case it really was only a difference of a tic, so this is more an academic question

I do not know why you exited where you did. The closest thing to a "lower high" occurred after ou were already stopped out, and it looks as though had you moved your stop to below the low of the pullback that shook you out, you'd have been safe, right? That is assuming i am looking at it correctly. Your small TF chart (a single tick chart?) is no good on ,my eyes.

I am more concerned with those cases where, as you put it, I am "nic'd" into a trade. In this case, price did what you had hoped - it rallied through your buy point. Now you have to allow it do breath and pullback to test the buy point if it so desires. Do you see the difference? A trade that tick's you in and goes no where is much different behavior from a trade that carries beyond your entry and then comes back to test the entry.

I have another comment: you have on one of your charts something to the effect that price doesn't look "wedgey." There is no such thing as "wedginess." Price either forms a wedge or it does not form a wedge. A wedge is obvious. If you have to ask yourself, "Is this a wedge?" then it probably is not a wedge.

Also, when I look for the "three pushes" or "three drives," I do not want to see such wide and sloppy PA as we have here. There should be a symmetry between the waves down and up, down and up, and into the final wave down. Symmetry does not mean equality, but it does imply proportionality. In fact, I usually do not refer to this asthree pushes, as I am more interested in what Blowfish calls a rising or falling wedge or what I would call an ending diagonal.

Look at patrader's many fine examples of various wedges. I think he and I would be on the same page in that the three drives should resemble a hinge that is either downward or upwaard sloping. What you have is what is sometimes referred to as a broadening formation. O'Neil calls it wide and loose. I call it sloppy. Call it what you will, it is a very unreliable indicator of what to expect next.

I hope that helps.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[forrestang]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

I do not know why you exited where you did. The closest thing to a "lower high" occurred after ou were already stopped out, and it looks as though had you moved your stop to below the low of the pullback that shook you out, you'd have been safe, right? That is assuming i am looking at it correctly. Your small TF chart (a single tick chart?) is no good on ,my eyes.

That LH you mentioned, that I placed on the chart was where I figured a better exit should have been where I highlighted the LH you speak of. But, if I would have based to stop off of even that(placing one tic below that last swing), I would have been tagged to the tic. I apologize for the chart, I figure it's the only way to illustrate my question.

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

I am more concerned with those cases where, as you put it, I am "nic'd" into a trade. In this case, price did what you had hoped - it rallied through your buy point. Now you have to allow it do breath and pullback to test the buy point if it so desires. Do you see the difference? A trade that tick's you in and goes no where is much different behavior from a trade that carries beyond your entry and then comes back to test the entry.

Yes, I see the distinction. On the trades that initially do what I want, and do not quite reach my BE trigger, how much room should I give them beyond retesting my entry price? Is it a matter of something occurring like two consecutive LHs(for a buy case) beyond my entry and then exit? I was just throwing that idea out there.

Originally Posted by thalestrader

I have another comment: you have on one of your charts something to the effect that price doesn't look "wedgey." There is no such thing as "wedginess." Price either forms a wedge or it does not form a wedge. A wedge is obvious. If you have to ask yourself, "Is this a wedge?" then it probably is not a wedge.

Thanks, I had a feeling there wasn't much there. I think that's why I didn't necessarily expect much of a rally.

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by jonbig04 »

In my mind either entry was valid and had its's drawbacks and it just so happens that the one I took came back to bite me. But I wanted to see what you had to say about it.

I would agree with you Jon, in that I could make a case for either. Now, here's a funny thing. I was watching during your first entry, but I didn't take it (I think your chart is a fie minute, and I watch a 15 minute, but the entry was there just the same). I wish I could tell you why I didn't take it. I normally would have tried it. I think the reason I did not was that I had been snookered by an earlier short try, and I was just willing to be more cautious and wait for a larger wave to start swinging (two very nice entries presented themselves today in my opinion and I marked them on the attached chart).

Interestingly, you would probably think you were being more cautious because you try to play entries where you can have a tightr stop, whereas I would consider myself to be more cautious as I am waiting for entries that confirm weakness (for shorts) or strengther (for longs), albeit with a larger initial stop. Of course, I rarely allow a day trade go full stop on me. You might be surprised how often price would allow you to play a larger swing for an entry, and still give you the ability to keep your stops close (though maybe not quite as close as you play them now).

As for you becoming more "dynamic," as you put it, do so slowly and with caution. I think you have shown yourself to very disciplined and patient (certainly more so than I am at times). You seem to know yourself better than most. Keep using what you know. Right now you seem to have adapted your trading to yourself. What you are suggesting is a change to your trading that seems at odds with the kind of person you know yourself to be. Having said that, I have often found that taking two swings at the same entry has worked, i.e. I enter, take a small loss, enter agian, and I get my 2-3R or more.

I hope that helps.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[traverse]

I'm trying to learn about forex/currencies. Where can one find information?
A few of the questions are what is 6E?
What is a micro account and how does one go about setting them up? never mind, googled it
TIA

[jonbig04]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

I would agree with you Jon, in that I could make a case for either. Now, here's a funny thing. I was watching during your first entry, but I didn't take it (I think your chart is a fie minute, and I watch a 15 minute, but the entry was there just the same). I wish I could tell you why I didn't take it. I normally would have tried it. I think the reason I did not was that I had been snookered by an earlier short try, and I was just willing to be more cautious and wait for a larger wave to start swinging (two very nice entries presented themselves today in my opinion and I marked them on the attached chart).

Interestingly, you would probably think you were being more cautious because you try to play entries where you can have a tightr stop, whereas I would consider myself to be more cautious as I am waiting for entries that confirm weakness (for shorts) or strengther (for longs), albeit with a larger initial stop. Of course, I rarely allow a day trade go full stop on me. You might be surprised how often price would allow you to play a larger swing for an entry, and still give you the ability to keep your stops close (though maybe not quite as close as you play them now).

As for you becoming more "dynamic," as you put it, do so slowly and with caution. I think you have shown yourself to very disciplined and patient (certainly more so than I am at times). You seem to know yourself better than most. Keep using what you know. Right now you seem to have adapted your trading to yourself. What you are suggesting is a change to your trading that seems at odds with the kind of person you know yourself to be. Having said that, I have often found that taking two swings at the same entry has worked, i.e. I enter, take a small loss, enter agian, and I get my 2-3R or more.

I hope that helps.

Best Wishes,

Thales

Hehe, well at least it got me and not both of us. I thought about you when I took the short because I think it was identical to a short you took on ES a couple days ago, that I missed. Anyway, I think I'm just gonna chock this one up to "crap happens".

About the price/information risk dilemma, well I guess we could talk about that for days. That trade was a perfect example of the trade off between the two and I happened to end up on the wrong side. I'm sure I've been on the right side many times too, and just never took the time to notice.

About being dynamic, I'm going to do as you suggested and just take it slow. I will not forget what happened today and hopefully through trading more and more I will get more and more dynamic. I will say though that the benefit of being as stubborn about my rules as I always have been is that increasing size hasn't had any adverse effect on my trading. Nor did moving from SIM to cash. I saw so many struggling with those two things that I set out from the beginning to make sure I accounted for them. Only now that I am actually increasing size am I starting to be glad that I did that. I'm not trading large size or anything lol, but one day I will be.

[Cory2679]

Not trading, just watching...

Long on the EUR/USD...I figured I'd post it since I haven't posted a chart in a while...

EDIT: Rather than posting more charts, I'll just say...similar situations on the GBP/USD, EUR/JPY, and potentially even the USD/JPY...

[patrader]

30m 6E chart.Notice both tl's(larger and smaller) plus the longer tcl are falling (descending).The lite blue support line comes from the Daily chart which has three support levels all within 23 ticks starting at 1.3916.Price came down to 1.3917 on the 15m held for three bars then pushed down to 1.3911 running stops and reversing up.Also price pushed to a slight LL from yesterday's spike low (9 p.m. est) and trapped short traders adding fuel to the reversal.This may not be the bottom but good for a scalp to the closest tl at least.HTH

[thalestrader]

I do believe that ES does a dance off of that descending trend line before it mounts a rally. I have long term support on the Cash between 1052-1068, so we're getting close, I would think. But the longer it takes, the farther down that trendline touch will occur, if it occurs at all.





Best Wishes,

Thales