[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Hi Folks,

Here is the weekly GBPUSD chart ...

I forgot to add this chart with additional nearby levels noted.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by Gabe2004 »

I am not sure if this is the right place to post trades that have closed but I like this thread so I am posting it here. If someone could suggest a better place, please let me know.
Gabe

Hi Gabe,

While real time (including ahead of time) is always preferred since reading price action in real time is what will help us learn to trade more effectively, I have no objection to posting closed trades as well.

I do have a quation about your trade. You say in the annotation on your chart that the basis for the trad was a stop order below the swing high. Do you mean below the swing low? And if so, which bar are you identifying as having establishes a swing low?

Best Wishes,

Thales

[Gabe2004]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Hi Gabe,

While real time (including ahead of time) is always preferred since reading price action in real time is what will help us learn to trade more effectively, I have no objection to posting closed trades as well.

I do have a quation about your trade. You say in the annotation on your chart that the basis for the trad was a stop order below the swing high. Do you mean below the swing low? And if so, which bar are you identifying as having establishes a swing low?

Best Wishes,

Thales

Hello Thales

I meant Stop/Short entry below the LOW of the HIGHEST bar. Sort of an Al Brooks entry.
20:30 EST 15min is the bar I am talking about. I would like to see a small bar (doji is preffered.)

Basically it is a hybrid of your S/R system, Al Brooks and ME all combined.
I find that breakouts are not my cup of tea as I detect too many false ones.

Gabe

[Gabe2004]

Long/Short trade possibility for GJ.
Stop will be below/above the last swing that will form below/above the breakout point.

Gabe

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by Gabe2004 »

I find that breakouts are not my cup of tea as I detect too many false ones.Gabe

Hi Gabe,

You might find it easier if you were to focus on breakouts that are trend continuation BO's rather than trying to trade countertrend BO's.

For example, let us look at the potential long trade on the GBPJPY that you posted above. Now, I do not want to discourage you from taking the trade. The Pound has been pounded today, and I would expect that at least a temporary bottom would get hammered out here from which price would retrace some portion of the recent decline. Therefore, you trade may very well trigger and proceed to reach one or both of your profit targets.

That being said, a look at the daily chart displays a rather large, fairly clear pattern that, for those who fancy these sort of things, would identify as a "double top." Price today has pierced the intervening low between the two highs that constitute the respective "tops."

Now, for those who fancy these patterns, there is a common "rule of thumb" regarding price projections, i.e. a guideline for measuring the potential extent of a continued drop below the pattern low. That measurement for this particular pattern looks to identify a potential downside target of about 1500 ticks.

Now, there is nothing to guarantee that move will occur. In fact, your long trade might trigger and the ensuing rallymay prove to be a reversal of the recent down trend that launches the GBPJPY back to new recovery highs.

If the decline does continue, it will no doubt be punctuated by some rather sharp, fast, and furious rallies that will attempt to shake weaker shorts out of their positions. But, right now, at this moment, the short side has momentum and gravity on its side.

So, my question to you is this: Why do you identify the long trade that you do, but not also not the potential for a continuation of today's decline?

And a comment on your use of Brooks's material: You may consider that for breakouts, you need to be certain that you are identifying breakout points that are actual swing highs/lows, and not merely the high/low bar of an ongoing swing.


Best Wishes,

Thales

[Gabe2004]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Hi Gabe,


So, my question to you is this: Why do you identify the long trade that you do, but not also not the potential for a continuation of today's decline?


Best Wishes,

Thales

Hello Thales

Thank you for your comments about my chart.
Please look at it again as I have edited it probably at the exact time that you posted your reply.
I have added a short option.

What do you think about the entry point for the short?

Thanks

Gabe

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by Gabe2004 »

What do you think about the entry point for the short?

Thanks

Gabe

I think that if I were trading the GBPJPY that I would probably try that short around that level as well. I never mind selling a break to new lows or buying a break to new highs so long as I have a stop loss in place and a profit target equal to or greater than my initial risk.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Hi Folks,

Here is how things look soon after the NY close five or take an hour or so for dinner.

Still holding the three positions short. Total cumulative ticks open profit is just over +400. That of course will fluctuate, and I would not be surprised if the open trade equity is not sharply reduced by a bounce/correction/rally after the smash the pound took against the US Dollar today.

Will continue to hold short against a margin call and will monitor for opportunities where additional shorts may be added.

Best Wishes,

Thales