[Cory2679]

Well, I guess I won't be on tomorrow morning...I'm going to stay up late tonight (presumably while watching charts...no trading though, unless demo)...sleep in tomorrow, then begin the next night trading the first part of the Europe session. I'll be ready for entry an hour before the Frankfurt open (so I'll begin @ 12:30-1 AM EST) and trade until between 5-7 or so. I'm just going to demo trade the rest of the week with this new schedule.

My goal is to get an entry, set my stops and PT(s), shut down, and go to bed. As Thales says, his own best trades occur when he sets the orders at night and everything works its magic while he sleeps. (However, I'll take a shorter term trade if the setup is crying out at me).

Just for fun, and I know this is a pointless exercise, I just looked back to see what would have happened if I had traded last night...

Obviously this is hindsight (except the UJ, which I posted my opinion about before it dropped), but I think I have somewhat of an idea of what I would likely have taken in real time...

I would have gotten to take this:

Originally Posted by Cory2679 »

I'm not trading, but I'd be tempted to short the USDJPY with a break of the other side of the range...

Originally Posted by Cory2679 »

Not a home run, but wasn't the worst idea in the world.

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

I thought it was quite a good idea.

I could have gotten this (although without trailing the stops - I would have gotten fewer pips):

Originally Posted by TradeRunner »

1 trade: +50

I couldn't decide on a target for this trade and originally just put it on a round number 141.00 which would have been +75. I had second thoughts and moved it to +50 but if I was trading 2 contracts then my second target would've have been 141.00 .

...and I could have gotten a long on the GU.



These are just the ones I find really obvious. There were probably more, especially smaller degree swings.

[thalestrader]

Hi Folks,

Two charts of the 6A (AUDUSD futures). This is not one I follow, but I was prompted to open it up today in response to zt's posts, and I had an idea of how I might be able to illustrate the concept of degre of swing or trend for those who are trying to understand it.

I used a software called MTPredictor to identify three degres of swing (I've mentioned MTP here before, and I know daedalus also owns it or has access to it - this is in no way meant to be an endorsement of the product, I am using it as a tool - a very expensive tool - to illustrate a point).

MTP is an Elliot Wave software, and it has the capacity to fous upon thre levels of trend which it calls major, intermediate, and minor.

This first chart is the 15 minute 6A. I know it may be difficult to make out, but the notes on the chart should help you see how the same price action can be cut up or bundled into groups of moves of various sizes, i.e. swings of differing degree.




I select one swing to illustrate this concept in the above chart. As you can see, the software identifies one major swing that it breaks down into seven intermediate swings, and thirteen minor swings. Each of these degrees can be traded. But nothing says you must trade each. Some traders, for example, daedalus, tend to focus on the minor swing level. I tend to look at the intermediate swing level. My daughter, for what its worth, is usually using the major swing levels to get her into intermediate degree moves. I mentioned my friend Mark yesterday, and he trades only the major swing levels, and pays no attention to what is occurring at the minor or intermediate swing level.

This will make a difference in the number of opportunities a trader finds, as well as the extent, in terms of both magnitude of price movement and amount of time in a trade. Look at the following chart of the 6A.



In this case, I used a 34 minute chart (an old favorite of mine that I still look to from time to time, but not nearly as often as I should). In this chart, you can see where a trader trading the major swings would have gotten long at the 123 at the lower left hand corner of the chart, and would have stopped and reversed to short on the first short sequence of major swing degre at the far right hand corner. In the meantime, traders trading the intermediate and minor swings would have been quite busy during both the uptrend and the nascent downtrend.

The tricky part, of course, is apparently learning to distinguish these degrees from one another. I think that perhaps being conscious of the concept may be half (or more) of the battle.

I hope this helps.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[Kiwi]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Borderline? Cory, my nine year old daughter thinks you are over the top!

Last night she read your post about how bad you were feeling, and she said, "You should tell him it's only money."

Best Wishes,

Thales

LOL.

Shes only 9. You wait until shes 13-15 and you'll find out what a drama queen is ... it is coming to a room near you.

[thalestrader]

Current look at the Dollar Index (daily) ...


Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Current look at the ES shows it going to PT2 on its couldawouldashoulda rally ...

Best Wishes,

Thales

[Cory2679]

Hey guys,

I think I'm going to be taking some time off from trading/posting. I need some time to reflect, read, review, collect my thoughts, etc. I feel like lately (this week) I've somewhat lost sight of the "forest" from focusing too much on the "trees."

I want to take this time off and decide exactly what I'm going to be doing when I resume trading this Monday.

Cory

[jonbig04]

Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

[jonbig04]

Originally Posted by jonbig04 »

Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

We have a new high and I stand aside.