[Beachtrader]

Thank you Thales! Not sure why but the last couple of days have been a bit of a struggle for me so am very pleased to have caught this one. I think I am finding it hard to get used to the difference in rhythm between M15 and my usual stomping ground which is M5.

Update on trade: Taken just over 1/4 more off the table on a retest of 1.42 and stop placed just above yesterday's LOD to protect remaining profits. As yet unable to find a sensible place to put my stop lower down but will move it to above last M15 swing if price breaks and holds below 1.42.

[thalestrader]

Current view of the USDJPY ...

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Current look at the ES ...


Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Not a terribly attractive R/R profile, but a long sequence on the GBPUSD nonetheless.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[Beachtrader]

USDJPY triggered long.



Kind regards
BT

[zt379]

PT1's are frequently hit, and PT2's far less often, and when I do use a PT3, it is nonetheless rarely achieved during the lifetime of the swings I tend to trade.......

You need to select the scale of swing you wish to trade, and then stick to it..... You do not want to mix them. If you look at the two long entries I had earlier, each was managed according to the swing that created the opportunity. If you are going to mix degrees, you want to use the larger to govern the smaller, rather than... manage the larger using the smaller.......

Once you decide what scale you are trading,then you need to become proficient at identifying changes in the trend related to that scale. This seems to be the most difficult aspect of this approach....use fib's to help you initially.
If a swing up off a low retraces 1/3-2/3 and then resumes the rally, those two swings are of like scale, and can be counted as two separate swings.
If, on the other hand, a swing up off a low retraces less than a third, then that retracement should be considered part of the swing off the low, and not a separate swing. This is so even if the swing up is one "bar" and the retracement a new "bar". Price moves as a flow, and not as discreet packages called bars.

The key value to fibs is.....that they provide a sense of proportion with respect to price movements, and how the various wiggles of all sizes fit in with one another. And that really is all. S/R is still the paramount consideration. But S/R... instead presents us with zones. Fibs help us to choose a proportionately appropriate level within that zone for us to watch...... I think the main source of confusion here with this approach is that it really does come down to being able to recognize degrees of price movement while not confusing or...."mixing" them. ..
Thales

Thales.
Thank you for your detailed reply.
Your thoughts and experience are much appreciated.
You've mentioned some interesting things whilst keeping to a core simplicity.
My thinking is that if I (anyone) can maintain the PT1 being reached consistently, then it would imply
[Edit] that the 123 was being seen/taken in the right context "degree" which is good.
It's easy to overlook what we do do well.
Perhaps managing the trade without bias and enough flexibility to not be fixated by our expectation. Not losing sight of what we're within, the larger picture.
To build upon that, I shall think hard on your suggestions.
Many thanks..and kind regards to you.

[jonbig04]

Some S/R action and the larger picture of the S&P.




Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

[Beachtrader]

Originally Posted by Beachtrader »

USDJPY triggered long.

Stopped out for a shade over 1/2 times risk. I can't help thinking that I should have closed this way sooner, especially given the strength of the yen against GBP and EUR.