[thalestrader]

Hi Folks,

Hundreds of ticks available if I'm right about this short opportunity on the GU.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Hundreds of ticks available if I'm right about this short opportunity on the GU.

-40 initial stop for a +130 PT1 ... I wasn't going to trade, and the market will probably punish me for this, but I'm in at 1.6688 short for a 1.6558 PT1 and 1.6458 PT2.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by MidKnight »

Now my question to you is why were you not concerned about the R overhead - if you were concerned, then you would have been looking for any reason to get short. But you don't seem to be and are even saying it isn't obvious. I've seen you post countless trade ideas with less of a reason to enter (like your two longs right here). Obviously as it turned out, your ideas were right and mine was wrong, but I just can't see why.

Good questions, and I'll answer you tomorrow or Friday or Saturday. I'm too tired to put my thoughts together right now.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[jonbig04]

short.

[Cory2679]

Originally Posted by MidKnight »

my hit rate with this style is so terribly low that most of my entries are losers.

MidK (or anyone else, for that matter),

I'm just a relatively new trader, far from a guru of any sort, so I'm hesitant to give any type of advice, so just take it for what it's worth...

It just surprises me when you say your hit rate is so low, because I've only been doing this for a couple weeks and I see so many winning opportunities and I don't know how you're missing them...so my advice would be...just take a chart, say the 15 minute EURUSD, load 100 days of data, and just scroll back, hour by hour, and witness how price behaves and the many opportunities it has presented over the last several weeks. You won't have to scroll far to see the opportunities.

Maybe it will sort of get you in the right mindset and perspective to see the opportunities.

I'd advise looking at a range chart too, perhaps the 13 range. I just think it gives you a slightly different perspective on the same information. Sometimes it can make things clearer. Your choice, though.

I just think that SEEING the past opportunities might help in identifying real-time opportunities. While dissecting each individual trade and scenario can certainly be beneficial, I don't think you're going to find success with this approach until you basically develop an "eye" for or a "feel" for it, to some extent.

I know Thales has talked about PICTURES being key in teaching his daughter.

Anyways, like I said, I'm no expert so just take what I say with a grain of salt.

No more trading for me until Monday (hopefully I'll knock out some good LIVE trades next week!). Have a great Thanksgiving everyone!! (EDIT: everyone in the US at least!)

Cory

[MidKnight]

Originally Posted by Cory2679 »

It just surprises me when you say your hit rate is so low, because I've only been doing this for a couple weeks and I see so many winning opportunities and I don't know how you're missing them...so my advice would be...just take a chart, say the 15 minute EURUSD, load 100 days of data, and just scroll back, hour by hour, and witness how price behaves and the many opportunities it has presented over the last several weeks. You won't have to scroll far to see the opportunities.

Maybe it will sort of get you in the right mindset and perspective to see the opportunities.

I'd advise looking at a range chart too, perhaps the 13 range. I just think it gives you a slightly different perspective on the same information. Sometimes it can make things clearer. Your choice, though.

I just think that SEEING the past opportunities might help in identifying real-time opportunities. While dissecting each individual trade and scenario can certainly be beneficial, I don't think you're going to find success with this approach until you basically develop an "eye" for or a "feel" for it, to some extent.

Hi Cory,

Thanks for taking the time to comment. I must admit to being a little offended in reading it though (but I know that wasn't your intent). You are suggesting that I haven't or do not study the historical charts - of course I have been. The last 4 weeks exploring this have been no different than all my prior weeks since trading. Exploring various ideas (for the last 4 weeks, strictly this Thales stuff) through historical study of some sort and also exposing myself to real-time markets. I'd easily do a 10 hour day during the market week and a good 4-6 hours each day over the weekend.

Yeah sure, I can see lots of winning opportunities as well when I look at historical charts. If that is the case and then the real-time study is showing a massive mismatch that is a strong sign of severe hindsight bias. So far, this has been my experience, and I'm sharing the experience for everyone to see.

I was hesitant to post those 7 trades because I know that with hindsight, people will be posting comments like, "c'mon man, that was obviously long, why would you want to go short there?". The comments will likely communicate all the reasons why the trade should not be taken and probably none of the reasons why the trade should have been taken, thus implying the absolute invalidity of the trade idea. I'm not saying you are doing this in your comments, I'm just typing this thought up as an attachment to my reply to you.

With kind regards,
MK

[Cory2679]

Originally Posted by MidKnight »

I must admit to being a little offended in reading it though (but I know that wasn't your intent).

MidK,

I regret the post and I'm terribly sorry for having offended you. I understand what you mean...my bad. I just wasn't thinking.

Hopefully some good and maybe even a breakthrough of some sort will come of the analysis of your 7 losing trades. I'm interested to see the correspondence over the next couple days to see what comes of it.

I wish you luck!

Cory

[Kiwi]

Cory,

You should do the following:

a) Get a copy of New Market Wizards out of the library and read the interview with William Eckhardt. I have owned the book since before I started trading and just reread it the other day. Its probably the tenth time and it always tells me something. Then reread what you said above.

b) Test it. Go back to the beginning of the period and even allowing for the fact that you know whats going to happen see how it goes when each one is coming at you from the right hand edge.

Anyone who is new to trading or considering trading and hasn't yet read Eckhardt's interview would do themselves a huge favor by doing so and by underlining the stuff that seems important. You could also look up a guy who's gone by the name's TheRealThing, Leonardo, and Joel Rensink - his stuff + Mark Douglas's stuff is very important. But start with the big E.


For the record I think that MK did succeed in Cherry Picking losers and that Thales examination of them will be useful. I also support Thales suggestion that people narrow their focus to the big 3 or 4 in part because if you only look at them you get to take each opportunity rather than attempting to pick which one to take from a larger selection of pairs. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/for...html#post81985 I don't know how many times I've seen two factors suggested in people finally digging their way out of the losing game that forex is for most people - narrowing their focus to one or a few pairs and/or going up timeframes to a minimum of 4H and preferable 1D.