[Cory2679]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Here we go ...

Funny thing too ... after having praised FXCM micro for the small spreads and the lack of slippage, I am getting creamed on my stops (both entries and exits) today. I could see if we were putting on $1,000,000 positions, but we are trading two mini lot equivalents. If this keeps up, we'll be posting trades basis futures only. Looks like FXCM may have taken a page out of Oanda's book. A small spread looks good, but it doesn't mean anything if you are going to get clipped for 3-5 ticks extra in and out.

Best Wishes,

Thales

Thales,

Am I right to assume that FXCM is back to normal (you're still posting spot fx charts)?

I was thinking about opening a mini (if not micro) account. I currently trade currency futures, which I like better than spot, but this approach is the most discretionary way to trade I've ever traded, and I felt scared to death thinking about putting on my first live trade with it this morning. Even though I have the capital to trade standard lots, I'd like to baby-step my way to them. I did really well sim trading last week, but based on how I felt when I went live today, I know I won't be able to do the same thing live unless I work my way up to full size.

The CME actually offers mini and micro currency futures, but the volume is very low...untradably so.

Thanks!

[Gabe2004]

Originally Posted by johnjohn1hew »

The GBPUSD looks like it is rounding downwards in the 5 min. forming a double top. This could create a short setup.

Could be or the poke below the lower line of the frlag could be a fake and it will just continue up.

Gabe

PS SL hit.
I would not do anything now because there is no market until 8PM EST.
So 2 trades 2 losses.
Could this be avoided?

[johnjohn1hew]

Originally Posted by Gabe2004 »

Could be or the poke below the lower line of the frlag could be a fake and it will just continue up.

Gabe

PS SL hit.
I would not do anything now because there is no market until 8PM EST.
So 2 trades 2 losses.
Could this be avoided?

Hey Gabe, right after you posted that long setup i posted the exact same chart in a 5 min. interval, but i had a bearish outlook. A double top was forming and the 15 minute did not show this. You should watch more than one interval for confirmation.

[Gabe2004]

Originally Posted by johnjohn1hew »

Hey Gabe, right after you posted that long setup i posted the exact same chart in a 5 min. interval, but i had a bearish outlook. A double top was forming and the 15 minute did not show this. You should watch more than one interval for confirmation.

Hi jj

The point I am raising is that I was killed twice in a row.
Not that this is a big problem because a losing string could last longer but the question is, is there a way to avoid this or it is just a statistical fact that has to be factored in and in the long run the winners will outweigh the losers.

Gabe

[Gabe2004]

Originally Posted by Gabe2004 »

Could be or the poke below the lower line of the frlag could be a fake and it will just continue up.

Gabe

PS SL hit.
I would not do anything now because there is no market until 8PM EST.
So 2 trades 2 losses.
Could this be avoided?

Maybe my Stop was too close.

I have a problem with this.

Gabe

[Kiwi]

Originally Posted by TrueBalance »

Kiwi, here's the big picture. Resistance at 132.91-ish (in my view) and an anticipated move down to support at 132.36 (about middle of the 132.90 - 131.83 area). So target 1 was before that first R, and target 2 below it. R:R would be close to 1 for the first target so the setup looked attractive to me.

I know you have described a similar context earlier in this thread and I found it interesting then (as I did now), I will definitely try to keep it in mind in the future.

The example was less obviously completely wrong than some. There was some stalling activity before the signal. One of the things I note is that Thales also picks slightly higher timeframe reversals as the base of 123break entries.

But if you look carefully at them he is often doing it with an awareness of more reversing activity. The usdchf ones showed considerable time and retests as part of many reversals. Thales has shown some good ending diagonals on 15m - some of those work and some become abcGos when they become what afterwards look like bull flags in an uptrend. But he's doing it in the context of reason to think its reversing.

I know I showed a zone reversal on that opening but I wouldn't normally take FIRST test of a zone unless there was a good reason. The good reason on that one was that there was a gap behind it ... so filling the gap would provide some momentum and the probability of getting out be+ even if it filled and then price kept going down.

The 123break is a sound entry with momentum and confirmation AT ITS TIME FRAME to give you a small edge. But people need to add edges to become consistent. One is the 123break. Another is exiting half at next 1:1.1 S&R to give comfort/confidence and consistent income flow. Another, if appropriate to the S&R is pulling to be+ very fast. A very important one is trading with the flow of the market (call it trend, call it momentum, call it whatever but the nature of the order filling in forex means that it will be there) and if you're going against it look for real signs that this flow is ending:
- three little indians / ending diagonals
- test and then retest of S&R (does it have to reach the swing or is zone ok in what you are trading (they vary!)
- time in congestion/chopzone and then a break down

You see what I'm getting at? A good strategy like Thales and his daughters trading adds edges to get a solid combination.

Thales recommended a couple of books on price pattern reading that his girl read before she started. These + his exit approach add to the 123break.

Thales, can you recommend the books again?


Note1: An example of Thales "possible reversal thinking" and note the ascending triangle within it. If you traded it then you'd be looking at the swing support below for a first exit and thinking (I hope) ... well, once it gets there, lets see if it holds or breaks solidly because if it holds or breaks just a little bit this could form a bull flag before progressing up.

Note2: For thinking about how forex works and why trends and retracements are there I find no better thread than an old institutional trader/manager talks at forex factory and the links he provides. I would recommend everyone read William Eckhardt's interview in New Market Wizards - he is one of the smartest guy's I've read in this game even though he lost the bet to Richard Dennis. You need to get past the issues he discusses.

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by Kiwi »

Thales recommended a couple of books on price pattern reading that his girl read before she started ... Thales, can you recommend the books again?

Stikky Stock Charts, and How Charts Can Help You in the Stock Market by WIlliam Jiler, and the price action/chart reading section(s) of William J O'Neil's How to Make Money in Stocks

[Gabe2004]

Originally Posted by Kiwi »

[IMG]Thales recommended a couple of books on price pattern reading that his girl read before she started. These + his exit approach add to the 123break.

Thales, can you recommend the books again?

Post #616

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/for...html#post78242

Gabe