[thalestrader]

Hi Folks,

Current look at the EURJPY - could be an ending diagonal. Ending diagonals do not indicate anything other than that the trend of which it is a part is momentarily losing momentum, and may be coming to an end. In my experience, when an ending diagonal results in a continuation of the trend rather than an end, the move is usually large and subject to continues trending.

I do not typically trade the pattern's trendline breaks. I wait for the breaks and then look for my entry.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Hi Folks,

Current EURUSD.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Current EURUSD.

... and a closer look.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[johnjohn1hew]

Originally Posted by BlowFish »

Yes indeed Gabe. I probably didn't express myself well. What I meant is would TT have considered placing stop entry orders under those bars (which would not have triggered).

1 would not have triggered - but was it a potential trade?
2 would trigger on bar 3
3 would trigger on bar 4.

Where either of those (2&3) up for consideration? I would have probably considered 3 long too but that did not trigger either.

I don't want to ruffle feathers here nor upset anyone, but to me, bars are irrelevant. Dbphoenix and others are always saying this... Price is moving, you trade the movements...This approach could be done using a line chart, but the range of price is important. I just want to keep things simple. I just have a feeling that a lot of focus has been on individual bars lately. Sure, i'm just a beginner (and what do i know, right?), but the theory is sound.

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Current EURUSD

If it goes long I'd be looking for +25 and +65 ... if it goes and goes nowhere, I pull the rip cord quickly.

If it goes short, I'd be looking at +30 and +70 ... rip cord clause applies.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by johnjohn1hew »

I don't want to ruffle feathers here nor upset anyone, but to me, bars are irrelevant. Dbphoenix and others are always saying this... Price is moving, you trade the movements...This approach could be done using a line chart, but the range of price is important. I just want to keep things simple. I just have a feeling that a lot of focus has been on individual bars lately. Sure, i'm just a beginner (and what do i know, right?), but the theory is sound.

I've been wanting to say this for a while and for whatever reason I haven't gotten around to it. John is absolutely 100% correct. Bars are irrelevant. A bar is just an arbitrarily selected way to "bundle" price movement.

Some here have noted that I sometimes come in "tight," i.e. use few bars to identify an opportunity. Gabe said the other day that he thought you needed at least a certain number of bars before an opportunity presents itself.

Watch price move. Trade. Repeat.

Look at the chart of the EURJPY in my reply to Blowfish in post #1462. Look at what I say about the bar I label with a "4". What matters is not how many bars price took to get somewhere, what matters is how has price moved. Period.

Some have said I seem to have a secret and unknowable way of managing my trades and cutting my losses. I assure you I do not. It is the same thing over and over. I have a good trading friend who always says "Dance with the one that brung ya, and leave with her too.'" What he means is that if you are going to get into a trade because price does xyz, then if it does the same thing but in the opposite direction, get out!

If a H-L-LH gets you short, then if price declines and prints a L-H-HL, well, it is time to pull the rip cord, and possibly time to reverse entirely.

One of the reasons I do not like mentioning Ross Hook's and Trader Vic 123's is that both understandings tend to place the trader's focus on bars, rather than price levels.

John says you can trade this with a line chart. I'll go one farther - when I am trading currency futures, and I am not distracted by other tasks (such as posting on TL) I am watching the DOM only. The chart is always there if I need to check to see if I missed anything, but other wise I just watch where price goes, stops, reverses, etc. In other words, not only do you not need bars to trade this way, you do not need a chart. You just need to see where price is and where it has been in some form or the other.

Excellent post John. If the post of the month were still in effect, I'd nominate your post. Anyone struggling with what we are doing here would be well served to print your post and put it in his or her journal.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

If it goes long I'd be looking for +25 and +65 ... if it goes and goes nowhere, I pull the rip cord quickly.

If it goes short, I'd be looking at +30 and +70 ... rip cord clause applies.

Best Wishes,

Thales

Long at 81, rip cord level will be a 72 print (possibly higher if this thing double tops). At any rate, a -9 or so should be about the worst case.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

94 is the level at which I'd go to BE on my stop. It printed 93, so my finger is on the close position button with a hard stop still at 72.

Best Wishes,

Thales