[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by imorgan »

EUR/JPY. Entered long now at 134.06.

Hi imorgan,

What made you decide to choose to take a long position there?

Best Wishes,

Thales

[Dinerotrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Hi imorgan,

I have a couple of questions:

1) Where was your initial stop loss?

2) What makes you think your support level "appears to have been too high"? Are you meaning that the spread took you in before a break of support? Or do you mean that you don't feel that you correctly identified a support level?

1. Initial stop was at 134.045...what I considered to be the closest natural stop.

2. Look at chart #2 on post of this trade. I mean I tried to identify a good S/R break but I couldn't decide if the 3 bars at the beginning of the dotted pink line were significant enough to require a break below and after watching the trade unfold, it appeared that I should have initially put the support level down to the pink line. At the pink line, support was holding which made me think the trade was taken at true support instead of at true breakout so why stay in the trade.

[Dinerotrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

What made you decide to choose to take a long position there?

I wanted to be in a trade more than I wanted to be on the sidelines this morning, would be the most honest answer. I justified the long by thinking that the support at the pink line held so well that maybe we were on the way back up now that we bounced off support and broke above my "support zone". However, after noting on my chart that the resistance line I drew earlier was holding almost perfectly, (I didn't expect it to since my faith in diagonal S/R lines is still wavering) I am exiting that long trade. 2 bad trades but I think I definitely learned from the experience of trying to commit to a S/R level I drew and determine how to manage the trade.

I realized I was unsure how much of a breakout below support would consititute an appropriate entry. How do you determine how far the breakout needs to be before you enter? Do you base it on percentage or ticks?

I do like that moved up the stop once I realized I might have entered improperly. I don't want to have a habit of staying in trades that confirm I had poor entry analysis.

Your comments are welcome.

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by forrestang »

PLAN FOR TOMMORROW:...

Hi Forrest,

Thank you for sharing your work with us. I see that the NQ today found support at Friday's day session high. Do you figure these session highs/lows into your trading plan at all or do you find the globex highs/lows sufficient?

Just curious, is all.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[forrestang]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Hi Forrest,

Thank you for sharing your work with us. I see that the NQ today found support at Friday's day session high. Do you figure these session highs/lows into your trading plan at all or do you find the globex highs/lows sufficient?

Just curious, is all.

Best Wishes,

Thales

Yo Thales,

Honestly I was keying mainly on that 1520 level, I hadn't even noticed that we kept hitting the High of Friday. I was wondering WHY price wouldn't go to the bottom of the zone and tag 1520. I really wasn't interested in anything until we at least tested the 1520.

I was thinking that 1539 area did gains some significance today, since it wa tested quite a few times today it seems. I almost entered on a breakout today about 15 minutes before the close, but realized I wouldn't get any follow through with such short time left.

Right now, I feel like I dont' have a good solid way to enter.

About Globex and regular sessions, I used to have the regular session HLC on there, but now I am simply pulling levels off the 24 hour session.

Thanks for asking!

On another notes just about today's session, the NQ seemed to not behave the way I think it should for good trades? Did anyone else get this feeling? It seems like it wanted to break that 1539 level, but couldn't. And price seemd to just chop around all day?

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by imorgan »

I wanted to be in a trade more than I wanted to be on the sidelines this morning, would be the most honest answer.

Never a good reason to commit to risk, but I've been there, done that, and will do it again unless I have truly and finally wised up.

Originally Posted by imorgan »

I justified the long by thinking that the support at the pink line held so well that maybe we were on the way back up now that we bounced off support and broke above my "support zone".

Ok, good, so it was based upon your interpretation of what you saw price doing, and not simply "panic" that you thought your short wasn't working and you didn't want to miss a chance to get your money back.

Originally Posted by imorgan »

I realized I was unsure how much of a breakout below support would consititute an appropriate entry. How do you determine how far the breakout needs to be before you enter? Do you base it on percentage or ticks?

I do like that moved up the stop once I realized I might have entered improperly. I don't want to have a habit of staying in trades that confirm I had poor entry analysis.

I trade, and I have my daughter trade based on a one tick buy/sell stop. As she is trading forex through a dealer, she needs to account for the spread, so she usually will place stop entry at +/- 2x(Spread).

I would likely not have thought to trade that short trade, as price had just moved through a sizable rally. After such a rally, unless there is an immediate and sharp sell off, I would anticipate another period of consolidation, not unlike what we saw at the end of last week. Price could certainly be rolling over and reversing here, but I'm not smart enough to tell that just by looking at what is there right now.

That being said, had I thought to take that short entry, I think I'd have entered it exactly like you did, and I would likely still be short from approx 133.84, with a stop loss up around 134.5x, and a profit target around 133.5x. Of course, this would be another caution against the short trade, as the R/R quite frankly sucks as I'd be risking 65 ticks for a profit of 35 ticks. Perhaps a secondary target would be down in the vicinity of 133.00, but I always tell my daughter that the R/R should be close to 1:1 or better in favor of the trade at the closest high probability target.

If I had wanted to be a seller, I'd have felt better about either selling at the high today (take a look at a four hour chart and you'll see why) or else I would have wanted to sell the break of 134.27, with a stop loss at 134.67 and a first profit target at 133.85. My secondary target would be a bit above 133.50.

By the way, based on the chart, I do think that EURJPY will see 133.5x before it revisits the 134.7x high, so if I were to be in either of your two trades, I'd rather be in the short than the long. But who knows?

Best Wishes,

Thales

[forrestang]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

By the way, based on the chart, I do think that EURJPY will see 133.5x before it revisits the 134.7x high, so if I were to be in either of your two trades, I'd rather be in the short than the long. But who knows?

Best Wishes,

Thales

Thales,

Do you think you can do a pre-day analysis? I'm not sure how you do it, or if you can get to it today.

I would suggest NQ, but I suppose any instrument would do fine? I'm just wondering if you prepare for things in a similiar fashion as I do, i.e. picking out S/R, or something else?

And actually, if anyone does anything simiiliar posting it would be great!!

Forrest

[forrestang]

Originally Posted by imorgan »

I wanted to be in a trade more than I wanted to be on the sidelines this morning, would be the most honest answer. I justified the long by thinking that the support at the pink line held so well that maybe we were on the way back up now that we bounced off support and broke above my "support zone". However, after noting on my chart that the resistance line I drew earlier was holding almost perfectly, (I didn't expect it to since my faith in diagonal S/R lines is still wavering) I am exiting that long trade. 2 bad trades but I think I definitely learned from the experience of trying to commit to a S/R level I drew and determine how to manage the trade.

I realized I was unsure how much of a breakout below support would consititute an appropriate entry. How do you determine how far the breakout needs to be before you enter? Do you base it on percentage or ticks?

I do like that moved up the stop once I realized I might have entered improperly. I don't want to have a habit of staying in trades that confirm I had poor entry analysis.

Your comments are welcome.

Being stopped happens, doesn't mean the next trade will turn out the same way. I'm sure you already knwo this and I am being redundant.

I hope you continue to post your right edge reads as we'll all get something out of it.

From my experience, it's hard to even admit I was wrong to myself, let alone posting a right edge read for dozens to see that I was wrong as well. I'm sure this is something that will dissapate over time as one gains confidence in the things they see on their screen.