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joshdance

If I Hear "price Action" or "setup" ONE More Time...

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There are a few phrases and words that I cringe when I read and hear. These cringes are minute in intensity and time, because I hear them all the time so I am virtually numb to them at this point. But here are two...

 

And I have friends and awesome traders who use these, so this is in no way reflects my opinion of THEM, even though the phrases annoy me. This thread is meant to vent just a little, but is written mostly a little tongue and cheek and should not be interpreted in any truly serious way. So let's have some good clean fun, and hopefully we will not argue too much, as the tone is meant to be light :)

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If I hear... "price action" ONE more time...

 

"Price action" has to be the biggest buzzphrase used by traders who know just enough to think they know what they are talking about, but who in fact usually don't have a clue. "What type of trader are you?" is bound to bring out many "I'm a price action trader" answers. Have you noticed how many vendors and marketers are using the phrase "price action" these days? It used to be cool to have fancy indicators. Now it seems to be cool to just have price bars or candles on the chart, and even better, to do a little jabbing and poking fun at anyone who has anything other than the market's price on the chart.

 

It's as if they worship the almighty "Price" and bow at his feet. The phrase "price then broke below..." irks me almost equally. Guess what guys? "Price" doesn't do anything. "Price" is not an entity. Now, the market can move up or down, but "price" cannot. Do you understand what a market is? Are you sure? Well, it's not the same as "price," and it's an important distinction.

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If I hear... "setup" ONE more time...

 

This is a perfectly valid word to describe an opportunity to enter the market. I get that. But it has taken the front seat of priority and has become the #1 word for people who seem to want to dumb down the market to the extent that they spend every hour of the day looking for "setups." One time a friend of mine and I took an opposite market position. He asked why I would take that position, and what it was based on? I said something like, "well, the market broke below this, and the volume was substantial, and the tape felt short," or something along those lines. I asked him what his was based on. He said, "It's based on probabilities, and a setup." I can't articulate without using the exact words, but suffice it to say that he was implying with his words he used at the time that his "setup" was far superior to my seemingly idiotic and baseless premise for my position, because he had--wait--a SETUP. Oh, and he had tested it thoroughly. Meaningless, but bully for him.

 

It's this kind of thing that I hear traders parroting, and sometimes I don't think they realize what they're even saying. "Find one setup and that's all you need." Really? And how many professional traders have a list of setups on their desks called "The Boomerang" and "The Dragon Tail" and "The Doogie Howser," and trade them faithfully every time? The market, to me, is more than just a bunch of setups. It's alive, breathing, and will kick your setup's ass from here to Timbuktu, especially if you insist on "sticking with the setup" every time you see it. The market loves to punish people who are lazy enough that they are not willing to learn how to trade, but who insist on learning "setups."

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You might be nitpicking regarding price not doing anything but overall I share your sentiment. There is an entire cottage industry built around the promulgation of these two catchphrases. So far I haven't seen anyone put the two together to stand out amongst the crowd. Yet it could be any day now that I see a book has been written or a course made up on the PRICE ACTION SETUP.

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Unfortunately you dont have much choice in the matter if everyone has to speak the same language. Otherwise imagine the gobbledy gook that would come out when trying to describe the same ideas.

Remember when everyone used to talk about "just floating out on the ocean that is the market waiting to catch the right wave." or the other one about "support becomes resistance and resistance becomes support".

While I share your sentiment......it seems it the best solution.,.....unless of course your idea is that its all propagated by vendors :) on the latest craze. I am waiting for the cosmic Mayan calendar and Goat testicles phase to come back into vogue.

 

i just ask the magic eight ball everyday....nothing to do with price. ;)

 

I have two setups - one is called - "makes money some of the time:" the other "sometimes makes money some of the time" both have the same desired effect "get into the market with a reasonable probability that if you are right you will make some money and if you are wrong you will loose very little"

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Siuya's right you know. We have to have some sort of common terminology. But like many people don't truly understand what they say and do on a day to day basis, many traders do not really understand what they are saying when they use certain terms.

 

Having said this, there are certainly phrases which I am less than enamoured with.

 

"Read Tape" is one on them. I don't think it's an especially accurate description in most cases and it's just one of those phrases certain types are drawn to. One of those which is bandied about by many people. I'm just not keen on it myself.

 

Another is the "Consistently Profitable Trader". To me it is designed to sucker in people who are desperate to succeed. I'm not saying all people who use it do so for that reason though. The way people always have talked about it in the past is to "Make the Turn". Not that this isn't a phrase in itself. Just that it doesn't focus on entirely the wrong aspect - the money.

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If I hear... "setup" ONE more time...

 

This is a perfectly valid word to describe an opportunity to enter the market. I get that. But it has taken the front seat of priority and has become the #1 word for people who seem to want to dumb down the market to the extent that they spend every hour of the day looking for "setups." One time a friend of mine and I took an opposite market position. He asked why I would take that position, and what it was based on? I said something like, "well, the market broke below this, and the volume was substantial, and the tape felt short," or something along those lines. I asked him what his was based on. He said, "It's based on probabilities, and a setup." I can't articulate without using the exact words, but suffice it to say that he was implying with his words he used at the time that his "setup" was far superior to my seemingly idiotic and baseless premise for my position, because he had--wait--a SETUP. Oh, and he had tested it thoroughly. Meaningless, but bully for him.

 

It's this kind of thing that I hear traders parroting, and sometimes I don't think they realize what they're even saying. "Find one setup and that's all you need." Really? And how many professional traders have a list of setups on their desks called "The Boomerang" and "The Dragon Tail" and "The Doogie Howser," and trade them faithfully every time? The market, to me, is more than just a bunch of setups. It's alive, breathing, and will kick your setup's ass from here to Timbuktu, especially if you insist on "sticking with the setup" every time you see it. The market loves to punish people who are lazy enough that they are not willing to learn how to trade, but who insist on learning "setups."

 

HEY!! Are you referencing when we exchanged contracts? When I was selling my long and you were initiating a short within a tick of each other??? :rofl:

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How so MM ?

 

People use the term probability as if a back tested pattern deemed to have x% of a chance of occurring, gives them an edge. It would if the events were normally distributed, but that is just not the case.

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People use the term probability as if a back tested pattern deemed to have x% of a chance of occurring, gives them an edge. It would if the events were normally distributed, but that is just not the case.

 

you mean

a bullish break of a fingerlookinggood pattern after a bullish run in a bear market

is different to

a bullish break of the same fingerlookinggood pattern after a bearish fall in a bull market ?

 

dont worry - the same probability distribution patterns are used by options sellers and risk managers.....dont tell them....shhhh.

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The use of the phrase "price action trader" has become laughable lately because too many that use that phrase are traders that still indicators on their charts...usually just one or two indicators. Yet, when you ask them why they have indicators on their charts...they say the indicators have no impact on their trade decisions. :doh:

 

If I hear... "price action" ONE more time...

 

"Price action" has to be the biggest buzzphrase used by traders who know just enough to think they know what they are talking about, but who in fact usually don't have a clue. "What type of trader are you?" is bound to bring out many "I'm a price action trader" answers. Have you noticed how many vendors and marketers are using the phrase "price action" these days? It used to be cool to have fancy indicators. Now it seems to be cool to just have price bars or candles on the chart, and even better, to do a little jabbing and poking fun at anyone who has anything other than the market's price on the chart.

 

It's as if they worship the almighty "Price" and bow at his feet. The phrase "price then broke below..." irks me almost equally. Guess what guys? "Price" doesn't do anything. "Price" is not an entity. Now, the market can move up or down, but "price" cannot. Do you understand what a market is? Are you sure? Well, it's not the same as "price," and it's an important distinction.

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The use of the phrase "price action trader" has become laughable lately because too many that use that phrase are traders that still indicators on their charts...usually just one or two indicators. Yet, when you ask them why they have indicators on their charts...they say the indicators have no impact on their trade decisions. :doh:

 

I'm not sure what price action is? Like UP & Down? :confused:

 

If it goes up, I go long, if it goes down, I go short... ;)

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wrbtrader - dont be too harsh :)

 

the indicators indicate the price action.

 

and isn't this the age old argument that even a price bar is an indicator of sorts !!! ;)

 

all this has spurred me to think I will rephrase myself "I am a context trader."

 

....now how do I define that and get something to indicate it to me.

 

(wrb = also as a side note checked out your site....well done good work, highly recommended)

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I'm not sure what price action is? Like UP & Down? :confused:

 

If it goes up, I go long, if it goes down, I go short... ;)

 

 

No, no, no, no, no! You've got it all wrong, Roztom! You obviously need lessons:

 

http://www.priceactionmasterclass.com

 

That'll be $2000 please . . .

 

(ps can't quite believe that the URL above hasn't actually been registered!)

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People use the term probability as if a back tested pattern deemed to have x% of a chance of occurring, gives them an edge. It would if the events were normally distributed, but that is just not the case.

 

What if the high probability pattern was one for an event involving an abnormal distribution?

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The phrase "expert advisor" for the forex strategies is a seriously annoying one.

 

Ah yes, MetaTrader... the software of choice for those who prefer a bit of antiquity in their trading.

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Ah yes, MetaTrader... the software of choice for those who prefer a bit of antiquity in their trading.

 

I still have metastock floppy disks somewhere. End of Day of course.

 

Then the joy of Trade Station 2000i

 

And some experiments with other things including metatrader over the years. But Sierra Chart has been my main squeeze since about 2003.

 

I, of course, trade price action at support and resistance (PASR). The best set-ups possible.

 

But I would encourage every newbie to try a bunch of indicators and trade with real money as early as possible. Nothing like being a donor to make you feel good about yourself. :rofl:

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If I hear... "price action" ONE more time...

 

"Price action" has to be the biggest buzzphrase used by traders who know just enough to think they know what they are talking about, but who in fact usually don't have a clue. "What type of trader are you?" is bound to bring out many "I'm a price action trader" answers. Have you noticed how many vendors and marketers are using the phrase "price action" these days? It used to be cool to have fancy indicators. Now it seems to be cool to just have price bars or candles on the chart, and even better, to do a little jabbing and poking fun at anyone who has anything other than the market's price on the chart.

 

It's as if they worship the almighty "Price" and bow at his feet. The phrase "price then broke below..." irks me almost equally. Guess what guys? "Price" doesn't do anything. "Price" is not an entity. Now, the market can move up or down, but "price" cannot. Do you understand what a market is? Are you sure? Well, it's not the same as "price," and it's an important distinction.

 

"Now, the market can move up or down, but "price" cannot".

 

This is definitely the holy grail. I've been staring at charts for 30 years and never noticed that the Market goes up and down all day long while Price stands perfectly still because it "cannot" (move). What a revelation!

 

Next time one of my students says, "Price is now at 105.00 in CL, I can confidently tell them that is impossible because I just read that Market Price cannot change. It is steady state and cannot rise or fall. It'll be a hoot to read all the posts about how I've lost my mind.

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wrbtrader - dont be too harsh :)

 

the indicators indicate the price action.

 

and isn't this the age old argument that even a price bar is an indicator of sorts !!! ;)

 

all this has spurred me to think I will rephrase myself "I am a context trader."

 

....now how do I define that and get something to indicate it to me.

 

(wrb = also as a side note checked out your site....well done good work, highly recommended)

 

When I read this, I was reminded that J. Livermore did not even use charts.

Then the very next post by mitsubishi has an avatar of J. Livermore.

Strange.

I think you hit the nail on the head.

Even a price bar is a lagging indicator.

Does this mean anything significant?

What is a context trader?

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Well, I have to say, this is a fairly mean spirited, ego centric discussion.

 

Can you people be any more narrow minded?

 

These markets are ruled by various forces, ultimately rooted in the human mind, and the forces generated by human's physical needs. These are reoccurring. We need to eat every day, for example.

 

These forces are counter balanced by the reality of production. Although we need to eat every day, crops are only harvested in the fall, for example.They reoccur over, and over again as time marches forward (sort of like the Sun rises every morning, and sets in the evening).

 

These two combined become our supply/demand matrix.

 

The supply/demand matrix is reflected in the charts, that also cause various patterns that reoccur over, and over again in the price action.

 

For those of you who obviously do not know what price action is, it is when the price rises, or falls in comparison to a previous point in time. This can be plotted on a chart (which btw, is the entire purpose OF the chart)

 

Since the price action reflects these market forces fairly reliably, in that the same forces, reproduce the same patterns over, and over; one can learn to spot them early, and profit from trades based on the pattern to continue it's formation.

 

This is what is referred to as a 'Setup'

 

So maybe you guys might want to take a moment to stop bashing everything around you, and maybe consider it is you, who does not 'Get It'

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Thank you SpearPoint -- it seems you have a good handle on how you personally define these terms. My observation is that many people do not. More people should be like you. Thank you for your comments, and I appreciate more than anything dissenters who expose different points of view!

 

edit: Besides, SP, I said this in my first post:

 

 

And I have friends and awesome traders who use these, so this is in no way reflects my opinion of THEM, even though the phrases annoy me. This thread is meant to vent just a little, but is written mostly a little tongue and cheek and should not be interpreted in any truly serious way. So let's have some good clean fun, and hopefully we will not argue too much, as the tone is meant to be light :)

 

It's not personal, it's just in the spirit of joking.

Edited by joshdance

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    • Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
    • Date: 16th April 2024. Market News – Stocks and currencies sell off; USD up. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks and currencies sell off, while the US Dollar picks up haven flows. Treasuries yields spiked again to fresh 2024 peaks before paring losses into the close, post, the stronger than expected retail sales eliciting a broad sell off in the markets. Rates surged as the data pushed rate cut bets further into the future with July now less than a 50-50 chance. Wall Street finished with steep declines led by tech. Stocks opened in the green on a relief trade after Israel repulsed the well advertised attack from Iran on Sunday. But equities turned sharply lower and extended last week’s declines amid the rise in yields. Investor concerns were intensified as Israel threatened retaliation. There’s growing anxiety over earnings even after a big beat from Goldman Sachs. UK labor market data was mixed, as the ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly lifted, while wage growth came in higher than anticipated – The data suggests that the labor market is catching up with the recession. Mixed messages then for the BoE. China grew by 5.3% in Q1 however the numbers are causing a lot of doubts over sustainability of this growth. The bounce came in the first 2 months of the year. In March, growth in retail sales slumped and industrial output decelerated below forecasts, suggesting challenges on the horizon. Today: Germany ZEW, US housing starts & industrial production, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speech, BOE Bailey speech & IMF outlook. Earnings releases: Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. Financial Markets Performance:   The US Dollar rallied to 106.19 after testing 106.25, gaining against JPY and rising to 154.23, despite intervention risk. Yen traders started to see the 160 mark as the next Resistance level. Gold surged 1.76% to $2386 per ounce amid geopolitical risks and Chinese buying, even as the USD firmed and yields climbed. USOIL is flat at $85 per barrel. Market Trends:   Breaks of key technical levels exacerbated the sell off. Tech was the big loser with the NASDAQ plunging -1.79% to 15,885 while the S&P500 dropped -1.20% to 5061, with the Dow sliding -0.65% to 37,735. The S&P had the biggest 2-day sell off since March 2023. Nikkei and ASX lost -1.9% and -1.8% respectively, and the Hang Seng is down -2.1%. European bourses are down more than -1% and US futures are also in the red. CTA selling tsunami: “Just a few points lower CTAs will for the first time this year start selling in size, to add insult to injury, we are breaking major trend-lines in equities and the gamma stabilizer is totally gone.” Short term CTA threshold levels are kicking in big time according to GS. Medium term is 4873 (most important) while the long term level is at 4605. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 15th April 2024. Market News – Negative Reversion; Safe Havens Rally. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Markets weigh risk of retaliation cycle in Middle East. Initially the retaliatory strike from Iran on Israel fostered a haven bid, into bonds, gold and other haven assets, as it threatens a wider regional conflict. However, this morning, Oil and Asian equity markets were muted as traders shrugged off fears of a war escalation in the Middle East. Iran said “the matter can be deemed concluded”, and President Joe Biden has called on Israel to exercise restraint following Iran’s drone and missile strike, as part of Washington’s efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and minimize the likelihood of a widespread regional conflict. New US and UK sanctions banned deliveries of Russian supplies, i.e. key industrial metals, produced after midnight on Friday. Aluminum jumped 9.4%, nickel rose 8.8%, suggesting brokers are bracing for major supply chain disruption. Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex fell back from highs over 106 to currently 105.70. The Yen dip against USD to 153.85. USOIL settled lower at 84.50 per barrel and Gold is trading below session highs at currently $2357.92 per ounce. Copper, more liquid and driven by the global economy over recent weeks, was more subdued this morning. Currently at $4.3180. Market Trends:   Asian stock markets traded mixed, but European and US futures are slightly higher after a tough session on Friday and yields have picked up. Mainland China bourses outperformed overnight, after Beijing offered renewed regulatory support. The PBOC meanwhile left the 1-year MLF rate unchanged, while once again draining funds from the system. Nikkei slipped 1% to 39,114.19. On Friday, NASDAQ slumped -1.62% to 16,175, unwinding most of Thursday’s 1.68% jump to a new all-time high at 16,442. The S&P500 fell -1.46% and the Dow dropped 1.24%. Declines were broadbased with all 11 sectors of the S&P finishing in the red. JPMorgan Chase sank 6.5% despite reporting stronger profit in Q1. The nation’s largest bank gave a forecast for a key source of income this year that fell below Wall Street’s estimate, calling for only modest growth. Apple shipments drop by 10% in Q1. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • The morning of my last post I happened to glance over to the side and saw “...angst over the FOMC’s rate trajectory triggered a flight to safety, hence boosting the haven demand. “   http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/topic/21621-hfmarkets-hfmcom-market-analysis-services/page/17/?tab=comments#comment-228522   I reacted, but didn’t take time to  respond then... will now --- HFBlogNews, I don’t know if you are simply aggregating the chosen narratives for the day or if it’s your own reporting... either way - “flight to safety”????  haven ?????  Re: “safety  - ”Those ‘solid rocks’ are getting so fragile a hit from a dandelion blowball might shatter them... like now nobody wants to buy longer term new issues at these rates...yet the financial media still follows the scripts... The imagery they pound day in and day out makes it look like the Fed knows what they’re doing to help ‘us’... They do know what they’re doing - but it certainly is not to help ‘us’... and it is not to ‘control’ inflation... And at some point in the not too distant future, the interest due will eat a huge portion of the ‘revenue’ Re: “haven” The defaults are coming ...  The US will not be the first to default... but it will certainly not be the very last to default !! ...Enough casual anti-white racism for the day  ... just sayin’
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