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lonew0lf

Negative/Reverse Divergence

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Following on the great work done by aaa on the divergence indicator; I wanted to know if someone could potentially help in creating an indicator which shows negative or reverse divergence.

 

The attached indicator is a slight tweak from aaa's, and shows regular divergence only. The attached images show the negative divergence.

 

 

// StochRSI Divergence TrendLine
// Author: MARKPLEX
// http://markplex.com/tutorial4.php
// version: 1.0

// Author: aaa
// version: 2.0
// Date: 20091129
// added: 
// divergence on top +
// Line.Color.Top + Line.Color.Bot + Line.Size + Plot.Sto in inputs

//----------------------------------------------------
inputs:
//----------------------------------------------------


RSILength(9),
StochLength(18),
KLength(6),
DLength(3),
OverSold(20),
OverBought(80),
Length(20),
LeftStrength(3),
RightStrength(3),
Line.Color.Top(yellow),
Line.Color.Bot(white),
Line.Size(2),
Plot.stochrsi(1),
AlertOn.Off(1);

//---------------------------------------------------- 
variables:
//----------------------------------------------------

DToscK(0), 
DToscD(0),

oPivotPrice1(0),
oPivotBar1(0),
oPivotPrice2(0),
oPivotBar2(0),

oPivotPrice11(0),
oPivotBar11(0),
oPivotPrice12(0),
oPivotBar12(0);

value1 = FastKCustomEasy(RSI(C, RSILength),StochLength);
DToscK =  average(value1,KLength);
DToscD = average(DToscK,DLength);

Condition1 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 1, -1, oPivotPrice1, oPivotBar1 ) <> -1 
	AND ( oPivotBar1 - RightStrength ) = 0 ;

Condition11 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 1, 1, oPivotPrice11, oPivotBar11 ) <> -1 
	AND ( oPivotBar11 - RightStrength ) = 0 ;

Condition2 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 2, -1, oPivotPrice2, oPivotBar2 ) <> -1;

Condition12 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 2, 1, oPivotPrice12, oPivotBar12 ) <> -1;

If 
	Condition1 and Condition2 // added condition2 = referecne future data
	AND L[oPivotBar2] >= L[oPivotBar1] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar2] < DToscK[oPivotBar1] then 
Begin
	Value2 = TL_New(D[oPivotBar2], T[oPivotBar2], L[oPivotBar2], D[oPivotBar1], T[oPivotBar1], L[oPivotBar1]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value2, Line.Color.Bot );
	TL_SetSize(  Value2, Line.Size  );
		if AlertOn.Off <> 0 then
			Alert( "Divergence in Bottom" );
End;

If 
	Condition11 and Condition12 // added condition12  referecne future data
	AND H[oPivotBar12] <= H[oPivotBar11] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar12] > DToscK[oPivotBar11] then 
Begin
	Value12 = TL_New(D[oPivotBar12], T[oPivotBar12], H[oPivotBar12], D[oPivotBar11], T[oPivotBar11], H[oPivotBar11]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value12, Line.Color.Top );
	TL_SetSize(  Value12, Line.Size  );
		if AlertOn.Off <> 0 then
			Alert( "Divergence in Top" );

End;

condition3 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 1, -1, oPivotPrice1, oPivotBar1 ) <> -1 
	AND ( oPivotBar1 - RightStrength ) = 0 ;

condition32 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 1, 1, oPivotPrice11, oPivotBar11 ) <> -1 
	AND ( oPivotBar11 - RightStrength ) = 0 ;

condition4 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 2, -1, oPivotPrice2, oPivotBar2 ) <> -1;

condition42 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 2, 1, oPivotPrice12, oPivotBar12 ) <> -1;

If 
	Condition3 and condition4 
	AND L[oPivotBar2] >= L[oPivotBar1] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar2] < DToscK[oPivotBar1] then 
Begin
	Value2 = TL_New_SELF(D[oPivotBar2], T[oPivotBar2], DToscK[oPivotBar2], D[oPivotBar1], T[oPivotBar1], DToscK[oPivotBar1]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value2, Line.Color.Bot );
	TL_SetSize(  Value2, Line.Size  );
End;

If 
	Condition32 and Condition42
	AND H[oPivotBar12] <= H[oPivotBar11] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar12] > DToscK[oPivotBar11] then 
Begin
	Value12 = TL_New_SELF(D[oPivotBar12], T[oPivotBar12], DToscK[oPivotBar12], D[oPivotBar11], T[oPivotBar11], DToscK[oPivotBar11]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value12, Line.Color.Top );
	TL_SetSize(  Value12, Line.Size  );
End;

Plot1( DToscK, "stochrsi",      blue );
plot2( 20,    "oversold", white);
plot3(80, "overbought", white);

5aa7100ba58bd_audusdhiddendivergence.gif.bda952cf2c1cef24c8029a347981205e.gif

5aa7100baa5a4_esintradaydivergence.gif.e6076b6dba70ea993f64de0f9fd98dca.gif

hidden-bearish-divergence-blue.png.e923dda9cd66a08f700852c5adeaca77.png

hidden-bullish-divergence-blue.png.3daad3c8864fa0c08d6335b24e0e74a2.png

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Hi

 

Following on the great work done by aaa on the divergence indicator;

 

First of all thank you very much for the kind words,

 

but I've done nothing =

 

it is a 100% code from one of Martyn Whittaker' Xcellent 46 free tutorial

 

martyn.whittaker@markplex.com

 

***********

 

His site is a real gold mine 2 learn EL

 

http://markplex.com/tutorials.php

 

 

 
If 
[u]Condition1[/u] and 
[u]Condition2[/u] AND
L[oPivotBar2] [b][u]>=[/u][/b] L[oPivotBar1]  AND 
DToscK[oPivotBar2] [b][u]<[/u][/b] DToscK[oPivotBar1] 
then 
Value2 = TL_New(D[oPivotBar2], T[oPivotBar2],[b][u] L[oPivotBar2[/u][/b]], D[oPivotBar1], T[oPivotBar1], [u][b]L[oPivotBar1[/b][/u]]); 

 

 

Have U tried 2 "reverse" the code or anything else ?

 

When we post our personnal work ( even tho if it doesn't work ),

 

and if there is a solution,

 

they is always a kind coder 2 help us here.

 

rgds

Edited by aaa

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aaa - i initially tried the inverse but all that did was kick off errors. I finally got this one to work.

 

// StochRSI Divergence TrendLine
// Author: MARKPLEX
// http://markplex.com/tutorial4.php
// version: 1.0

// Author: aaa
// version: 2.0
// Date: 20091129
// added: 
// divergence on top +
// Line.Color.Top + Line.Color.Bot + Line.Size + Plot.Sto in inputs

//----------------------------------------------------
inputs:
//----------------------------------------------------


RSILength(9),
StochLength(18),
KLength(6),
DLength(3),
OverSold(20),
OverBought(80),
Length(20),
LeftStrength(3),
RightStrength(3),
Line.Color.Top(yellow),
Line.Color.Bot(white),
Line.Size(2),
Plot.stochrsi(1),
AlertOn.Off(1);

//---------------------------------------------------- 
variables:
//----------------------------------------------------

DToscK(0), 
DToscD(0),

oPivotPrice1(0),
oPivotBar1(0),
oPivotPrice2(0),
oPivotBar2(0),

oPivotPrice11(0),
oPivotBar11(0),
oPivotPrice12(0),
oPivotBar12(0);

value1 = FastKCustomEasy(RSI(C, RSILength),StochLength);
DToscK =  average(value1,KLength);
DToscD = average(DToscK,DLength);

Condition1 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 1, -1, oPivotPrice1, oPivotBar1 ) <> -1 
	AND ( oPivotBar1 - RightStrength ) = 0 ;

Condition11 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 1, 1, oPivotPrice11, oPivotBar11 ) <> -1 
	AND ( oPivotBar11 - RightStrength ) = 0 ;

Condition2 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 2, -1, oPivotPrice2, oPivotBar2 ) <> -1;

Condition12 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 2, 1, oPivotPrice12, oPivotBar12 ) <> -1;

If 
	Condition1 and Condition2 // added condition2 = referecne future data
	AND L[oPivotBar1] >= L[oPivotBar2] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar2] > DToscK[oPivotBar1] then 
Begin
	Value2 = TL_New(D[oPivotBar2], T[oPivotBar2], L[oPivotBar2], D[oPivotBar1], T[oPivotBar1], L[oPivotBar1]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value2, Line.Color.Bot );
	TL_SetSize(  Value2, Line.Size  );
		if AlertOn.Off <> 0 then
			Alert( "Hid Div Bottom" );
End;

If 
	Condition11 and Condition12 // added condition12  referecne future data
	AND H[oPivotBar11] <= H[oPivotBar12] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar11] > DToscK[oPivotBar12] then 
Begin
	Value12 = TL_New(D[oPivotBar12], T[oPivotBar12], H[oPivotBar12], D[oPivotBar11], T[oPivotBar11], H[oPivotBar11]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value12, Line.Color.Top );
	TL_SetSize(  Value12, Line.Size  );
		if AlertOn.Off <> 0 then
			Alert( "Hid Div Top" );
End;

condition3 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 1, -1, oPivotPrice1, oPivotBar1 ) <> -1 
	AND ( oPivotBar1 - RightStrength ) = 0 ;

condition32 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 1, 1, oPivotPrice11, oPivotBar11 ) <> -1 
	AND ( oPivotBar11 - RightStrength ) = 0 ;

condition4 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 2, -1, oPivotPrice2, oPivotBar2 ) <> -1;

condition42 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 2, 1, oPivotPrice12, oPivotBar12 ) <> -1;

If 
	Condition3 and condition4 
	AND L[oPivotBar1] >= L[oPivotBar2] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar2] > DToscK[oPivotBar1] then 
Begin
	Value2 = TL_New_SELF(D[oPivotBar2], T[oPivotBar2], DToscK[oPivotBar2], D[oPivotBar1], T[oPivotBar1], DToscK[oPivotBar1]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value2, Line.Color.Bot );
	TL_SetSize(  Value2, Line.Size  );
End;

If 
	Condition32 and Condition42
	AND H[oPivotBar11] <= H[oPivotBar12] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar11] > DToscK[oPivotBar12] then 
Begin
	Value12 = TL_New_SELF(D[oPivotBar12], T[oPivotBar12], DToscK[oPivotBar12], D[oPivotBar11], T[oPivotBar11], DToscK[oPivotBar11]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value12, Line.Color.Top );
	TL_SetSize(  Value12, Line.Size  );
End;

Plot1( DToscK, "stochrsi",      blue );
plot2( 20,    "oversold", white);
plot3(80, "overbought", white);

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Hi LoneWolf

 

The solution was hidden in my suggestion ( HeHeHe !!)

and U've made good homework

 

*****************

 

I will not post any more Div indic than Sto + Rsi + MACD

 

In fact I try 2 trade with the trend, not against it.

 

Below is the Martyn Whittaker' logic of divergence

Everybody can easily apply it 2 any kind of indicators in 3 steps

 

1 Copy the entire Divergence code 2 your new div TrendLine indicator

2 Put the code of your preferate indicator in My.Indicator variable

3 Add personnal ideas 2 suit your way of Trading

 

rgds

 

aaa

 

***********************

 

inputs:

MyIndicator.Length(30),

 

variables:

My.Indicator(0),

 

My.Indicator=RSI(Close,MyIndicator.Length);

 

Condition1=Pivot(

My.Indicator,Length,LeftStrength,RightStrength,1,-1,

oPivotPrice1,oPivotBar1)<>-1 AND

 

(oPivotBar1-RightStrength)=0;

 

Condition2=Pivot(

My.Indicator,,Length,LeftStrength,RightStrength,2,-1,

oPivotPrice2,oPivotBar2)<>-1;

 

If

Condition1AND

Condition2AND

L[oPivotBar2]>=L[oPivotBar1]AND

My.Indicator,[oPivotBar2]> My.Indicator,[oPivotBar1]then // Change the sign < divergence > hidden divergence

 

etc..

 

**************

Edited by aaa

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I agree with you on staying with the trend. That was my reason why having the hidden divergence was important since it shows a continuation of the trend.

 

I seem to be running into a new problem now, it appears that the indicator is firing off alerts late. In the attached picture for example (15 min chart). The positive divergence is completed at 1am est, however the alert doesn't trigger until 1:45am.

 

I looked at the code but can't seem to figure out what's causing the delay. Open to suggestions.

 


//----------------------------------------------------
inputs:
//----------------------------------------------------


RSILength(9),
StochLength(18),
KLength(6),
DLength(3),
OverSold(20),
OverBought(80),
Length(20),
LeftStrength(3),
RightStrength(3),
Div.Color.Down(yellow),
Div.Color.Up(white),
HD.Color.Down (red),
HD.Color.Up (green),
Line.Size(2),
Plot.stochrsi(1),
AlertOn.Off(1);

//---------------------------------------------------- 
variables:
//----------------------------------------------------

DToscK(0), 
DToscD(0),

oPivotPrice1(0),
oPivotBar1(0),
oPivotPrice2(0),
oPivotBar2(0),

oPivotPrice11(0),
oPivotBar11(0),
oPivotPrice12(0),
oPivotBar12(0);

value1 = FastKCustomEasy(RSI(C, RSILength),StochLength);
DToscK =  average(value1,KLength);
DToscD = average(DToscK,DLength);

Condition1 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 1, -1, oPivotPrice1, oPivotBar1 ) <> -1 
	AND ( oPivotBar1 - RightStrength ) = 0 ;

Condition11 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 1, 1, oPivotPrice11, oPivotBar11 ) <> -1 
	AND ( oPivotBar11 - RightStrength ) = 0 ;

Condition2 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 2, -1, oPivotPrice2, oPivotBar2 ) <> -1;

Condition12 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 2, 1, oPivotPrice12, oPivotBar12 ) <> -1;

If 
	Condition1 and Condition2 // added condition2 = referecne future data
	AND L[oPivotBar1] >= L[oPivotBar2] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar2] > DToscK[oPivotBar1] then 
Begin
	Value2 = TL_New(D[oPivotBar2], T[oPivotBar2], L[oPivotBar2], D[oPivotBar1], T[oPivotBar1], L[oPivotBar1]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value2, HD.Color.up );
	TL_SetSize(  Value2, Line.Size  );
		if AlertOn.Off <> 0 then
			Alert( "HD Bottom" );
End;

	If 
	Condition1 and Condition2 // added condition2 = referecne future data
	AND L[oPivotBar2] >= L[oPivotBar1] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar2] < DToscK[oPivotBar1] then 
Begin
	Value2 = TL_New(D[oPivotBar2], T[oPivotBar2], L[oPivotBar2], D[oPivotBar1], T[oPivotBar1], L[oPivotBar1]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value2, Div.Color.up );
	TL_SetSize(  Value2, Line.Size  );
		if AlertOn.Off <> 0 then
			Alert( "DIV Bottom" );
End;

If 
	Condition11 and Condition12 // added condition12  referecne future data
	AND H[oPivotBar11] <= H[oPivotBar12] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar11] > DToscK[oPivotBar12] then 
Begin
	Value12 = TL_New(D[oPivotBar12], T[oPivotBar12], H[oPivotBar12], D[oPivotBar11], T[oPivotBar11], H[oPivotBar11]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value12, HD.Color.down );
	TL_SetSize(  Value12, Line.Size  );
		if AlertOn.Off <> 0 then
			Alert( "HD Top" );
End;

	If 
	Condition11 and Condition12 // added condition12  referecne future data
	AND H[oPivotBar12] <= H[oPivotBar11] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar12] > DToscK[oPivotBar11] then 
Begin
	Value12 = TL_New(D[oPivotBar12], T[oPivotBar12], H[oPivotBar12], D[oPivotBar11], T[oPivotBar11], H[oPivotBar11]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value12, Div.Color.down );
	TL_SetSize(  Value12, Line.Size  );
		if AlertOn.Off <> 0 then
			Alert( "DIV Top" );

End;


condition3 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 1, -1, oPivotPrice1, oPivotBar1 ) <> -1 
	AND ( oPivotBar1 - RightStrength ) = 0 ;

condition32 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 1, 1, oPivotPrice11, oPivotBar11 ) <> -1 
	AND ( oPivotBar11 - RightStrength ) = 0 ;

condition4 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 2, -1, oPivotPrice2, oPivotBar2 ) <> -1;

condition42 = Pivot( DToscK, Length, LeftStrength, RightStrength, 2, 1, oPivotPrice12, oPivotBar12 ) <> -1;

If 
	Condition3 and condition4 
	AND L[oPivotBar1] >= L[oPivotBar2] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar2] > DToscK[oPivotBar1] then 
Begin
	Value2 = TL_New_SELF(D[oPivotBar2], T[oPivotBar2], DToscK[oPivotBar2], D[oPivotBar1], T[oPivotBar1], DToscK[oPivotBar1]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value2, HD.Color.up );
	TL_SetSize(  Value2, Line.Size  );
End;

	If 
	Condition3 and condition4 
	AND L[oPivotBar2] >= L[oPivotBar1] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar2] < DToscK[oPivotBar1] then 
Begin
	Value2 = TL_New_SELF(D[oPivotBar2], T[oPivotBar2], DToscK[oPivotBar2], D[oPivotBar1], T[oPivotBar1], DToscK[oPivotBar1]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value2, Div.Color.up );
	TL_SetSize(  Value2, Line.Size  );
End;


If 
	Condition32 and Condition42
	AND H[oPivotBar11] <= H[oPivotBar12] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar11] > DToscK[oPivotBar12] then 
Begin
	Value12 = TL_New_SELF(D[oPivotBar12], T[oPivotBar12], DToscK[oPivotBar12], D[oPivotBar11], T[oPivotBar11], DToscK[oPivotBar11]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value12, HD.Color.down );
	TL_SetSize(  Value12, Line.Size  );
End;

	If 
	Condition32 and Condition42
	AND H[oPivotBar12] <= H[oPivotBar11] 
	AND DToscK[oPivotBar12] > DToscK[oPivotBar11] then 
Begin
	Value12 = TL_New_SELF(D[oPivotBar12], T[oPivotBar12], DToscK[oPivotBar12], D[oPivotBar11], T[oPivotBar11], DToscK[oPivotBar11]); 
	TL_SetColor( Value12, Div.Color.down );
	TL_SetSize(  Value12, Line.Size  );
End;

Plot1( DToscK, "stochrsi",      blue );
plot2( 20,    "oversold", white);
plot3(80, "overbought", white);

5aa7100cde519_Diverror.jpg.a59e3484a14dfcc6ce4cbdd8d42b3eab.jpg

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It is "normal"

 

Unfortunately pivot is not a RT function

 

Suggestion

 

RightStrength(2),

 

try 2 put 2 and U'll have 2 wait 2 bars instead of 3

 

**************************

 

The PPivot function returns the value of a pivot point and the number of bars ago the pivot occurred.

 

RightStrength

 

Numeric

 

Sets the required number of bars on the right side of the pivot bar.

 

*************************************

 

aaa

 

*************************

 

PS I'm wondering how 2 trade if we have 2 wait 3 bars (45 mns delay in your resolution) 2 have a signal ?!

 

Same problem with Carter scalper

 

After Observing during a long time a market, we can visualy anticipate a divergence with prior signs

 

IMO it's interesting 2 put an order at The anticipated level at the opposite of the trend (A kangourou tail where traders changing position)

and after waiting 4 a div or any kind of other confirmation

or exit with a quick profit

 

If it works, it's like a lift rocket !

 

But it is risky Bcoz we can get killed many times B4 it works

 

And then

 

A traders enters after, when the divergence signal is confirmed

 

B There is a DT/DB and it was an 2 early entry

 

C Or the trend keep going and the stop is reached

 

Not easy

 

At the end it's a matter of observation and intuitive quick decision + strong stomach

 

********************************

 

On your graph we can C

 

a kangourou trail ( in fact 1 + 1 the second one killed the first one)

 

a lift rocket

 

DB with certainly a divergence

 

and then the trend changes at the broken line where there was certainly a lot of stop buy orders above

 

So what should we do after 1:00 AM ?

 

Take profit ?

 

Trust in the hidden div and hold our position ?

Edited by aaa

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I've been using the divergence as the first trigger followed by a trend change (ttm trend) as confirmation. I finally noticed on the higher time frames (hourly, daily) that the trigger was way to slow.

 

I use the 15min, 1hr, etc as a signal for the direction I want to trade in and use a 3 min chart for entry.

 

I'll try changing the right strength to 2, why not use 1?

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I'll try changing the right strength to 2, why not use 1?

 

Put 3 charts on the same screen

 

Put right strength to 1

 

Put right strength to 2

 

Put right strength to 3

 

in each screen

 

and choose the one which suits U best

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I was being fictitious on the rightstrenth of 1.

 

Is it possible to have the indicator plot the divergence line, even though you have to wait the 3 bars for confirmation.

 

For example, TTM Trend for example will paint the current bar the anticipated colour before the bar closes. Would that be possible for this indicator where it plots the potential divergence as its happening rather than after the fact?

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What is the Tradestation equivalent for TL_New ( I assume this is an array or variable for the new "reverse divergent" trendline to be plotted next... but is undefined and therefore unrecognized in TS.

 

snowbird

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What is the Tradestation equivalent for TL_New ( I assume this is an array or variable for the new "reverse divergent" trendline to be plotted next... but is undefined and therefore unrecognized in TS.

 

snowbird

 

press the [F1] key and see...

 

TL_NEW is available in recent releases of TradeStation, but not in the older version (eg. T2000).

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Would that be possible for this indicator where it plots the potential divergence as its happening rather than after the fact?

 

With pivot function, I'm afraid that not less than 1 bar on the right side of the pivot bar...

 

The Pivot function returns the value of a pivot point and the number of bars ago the pivot occurred.

 

RightStrength = Sets the required number of bars on the right side of the pivot bar.

 

********************************

 

But keep "optimistic", as TAMS wrote ;)

 

anything is POSSIBLE

 

if you can visualize it, quantify it, articulate it, you can code it.

Edited by aaa

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    • Date: 18th April 2024. Market News – Stock markets benefit from Dollar correction. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Technical buying, bargain hunting, and risk aversion helped Treasuries rally and unwind recent losses. Yields dropped from the recent 2024 highs. Asian stock markets strengthened, as the US Dollar corrected in the wake of comments from Japan’s currency chief Masato Kanda, who said G7 countries continue to stress that excessive swings and disorderly moves in the foreign exchange market were harmful for economies. US Stockpiles expanded to 10-month high. The data overshadowed the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as traders await Israel’s response to Iran’s unprecedented recent attack. President Joe Biden called for higher tariffs on imports of Chinese steel and aluminum.   Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex stumbled, falling to 105.66 at the end of the day from the intraday high of 106.48. It lost ground against most of its G10 peers. There wasn’t much on the calendar to provide new direction. USDJPY lows retesting the 154 bottom! NOT an intervention yet. BoJ/MoF USDJPY intervention happens when there is more than 100+ pip move in seconds, not 50 pips. USOIL slumped by 3% near $82, as US crude inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels last week, hitting the highest level since last June, while gauges of fuel demand declined. Gold strengthened as the dollar weakened and bullion is trading at $2378.44 per ounce. Market Trends:   Wall Street closed in the red after opening with small corrective gains. The NASDAQ underperformed, slumping -1.15%, with the S&P500 -0.58% lower, while the Dow lost -0.12. The Nikkei closed 0.2% higher, the Hang Seng gained more than 1. European and US futures are finding buyers. A gauge of global chip stocks and AI bellwether Nvidia Corp. have both fallen into a technical correction. The TMSC reported its first profit rise in a year, after strong AI demand revived growth at the world’s biggest contract chipmaker. The main chipmaker to Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. recorded a 9% rise in net income, beating estimates. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
    • Date: 16th April 2024. Market News – Stocks and currencies sell off; USD up. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks and currencies sell off, while the US Dollar picks up haven flows. Treasuries yields spiked again to fresh 2024 peaks before paring losses into the close, post, the stronger than expected retail sales eliciting a broad sell off in the markets. Rates surged as the data pushed rate cut bets further into the future with July now less than a 50-50 chance. Wall Street finished with steep declines led by tech. Stocks opened in the green on a relief trade after Israel repulsed the well advertised attack from Iran on Sunday. But equities turned sharply lower and extended last week’s declines amid the rise in yields. Investor concerns were intensified as Israel threatened retaliation. There’s growing anxiety over earnings even after a big beat from Goldman Sachs. UK labor market data was mixed, as the ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly lifted, while wage growth came in higher than anticipated – The data suggests that the labor market is catching up with the recession. Mixed messages then for the BoE. China grew by 5.3% in Q1 however the numbers are causing a lot of doubts over sustainability of this growth. The bounce came in the first 2 months of the year. In March, growth in retail sales slumped and industrial output decelerated below forecasts, suggesting challenges on the horizon. Today: Germany ZEW, US housing starts & industrial production, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speech, BOE Bailey speech & IMF outlook. Earnings releases: Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. Financial Markets Performance:   The US Dollar rallied to 106.19 after testing 106.25, gaining against JPY and rising to 154.23, despite intervention risk. Yen traders started to see the 160 mark as the next Resistance level. Gold surged 1.76% to $2386 per ounce amid geopolitical risks and Chinese buying, even as the USD firmed and yields climbed. USOIL is flat at $85 per barrel. Market Trends:   Breaks of key technical levels exacerbated the sell off. Tech was the big loser with the NASDAQ plunging -1.79% to 15,885 while the S&P500 dropped -1.20% to 5061, with the Dow sliding -0.65% to 37,735. The S&P had the biggest 2-day sell off since March 2023. Nikkei and ASX lost -1.9% and -1.8% respectively, and the Hang Seng is down -2.1%. European bourses are down more than -1% and US futures are also in the red. CTA selling tsunami: “Just a few points lower CTAs will for the first time this year start selling in size, to add insult to injury, we are breaking major trend-lines in equities and the gamma stabilizer is totally gone.” Short term CTA threshold levels are kicking in big time according to GS. Medium term is 4873 (most important) while the long term level is at 4605. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 15th April 2024. Market News – Negative Reversion; Safe Havens Rally. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Markets weigh risk of retaliation cycle in Middle East. Initially the retaliatory strike from Iran on Israel fostered a haven bid, into bonds, gold and other haven assets, as it threatens a wider regional conflict. However, this morning, Oil and Asian equity markets were muted as traders shrugged off fears of a war escalation in the Middle East. Iran said “the matter can be deemed concluded”, and President Joe Biden has called on Israel to exercise restraint following Iran’s drone and missile strike, as part of Washington’s efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and minimize the likelihood of a widespread regional conflict. New US and UK sanctions banned deliveries of Russian supplies, i.e. key industrial metals, produced after midnight on Friday. Aluminum jumped 9.4%, nickel rose 8.8%, suggesting brokers are bracing for major supply chain disruption. Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex fell back from highs over 106 to currently 105.70. The Yen dip against USD to 153.85. USOIL settled lower at 84.50 per barrel and Gold is trading below session highs at currently $2357.92 per ounce. Copper, more liquid and driven by the global economy over recent weeks, was more subdued this morning. Currently at $4.3180. Market Trends:   Asian stock markets traded mixed, but European and US futures are slightly higher after a tough session on Friday and yields have picked up. Mainland China bourses outperformed overnight, after Beijing offered renewed regulatory support. The PBOC meanwhile left the 1-year MLF rate unchanged, while once again draining funds from the system. Nikkei slipped 1% to 39,114.19. On Friday, NASDAQ slumped -1.62% to 16,175, unwinding most of Thursday’s 1.68% jump to a new all-time high at 16,442. The S&P500 fell -1.46% and the Dow dropped 1.24%. Declines were broadbased with all 11 sectors of the S&P finishing in the red. JPMorgan Chase sank 6.5% despite reporting stronger profit in Q1. The nation’s largest bank gave a forecast for a key source of income this year that fell below Wall Street’s estimate, calling for only modest growth. Apple shipments drop by 10% in Q1. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • The morning of my last post I happened to glance over to the side and saw “...angst over the FOMC’s rate trajectory triggered a flight to safety, hence boosting the haven demand. “   http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/topic/21621-hfmarkets-hfmcom-market-analysis-services/page/17/?tab=comments#comment-228522   I reacted, but didn’t take time to  respond then... will now --- HFBlogNews, I don’t know if you are simply aggregating the chosen narratives for the day or if it’s your own reporting... either way - “flight to safety”????  haven ?????  Re: “safety  - ”Those ‘solid rocks’ are getting so fragile a hit from a dandelion blowball might shatter them... like now nobody wants to buy longer term new issues at these rates...yet the financial media still follows the scripts... The imagery they pound day in and day out makes it look like the Fed knows what they’re doing to help ‘us’... They do know what they’re doing - but it certainly is not to help ‘us’... and it is not to ‘control’ inflation... And at some point in the not too distant future, the interest due will eat a huge portion of the ‘revenue’ Re: “haven” The defaults are coming ...  The US will not be the first to default... but it will certainly not be the very last to default !! ...Enough casual anti-white racism for the day  ... just sayin’
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