[MightyMouse]

Originally Posted by TheNegotiator »

Just a quick question MM. It is after the fact though now but it shouldn't matter too much. Why would you place your stop exactly on yesterday's high? Just seems to me that the o/n trade if anything would likely target that price and probably push through a little to probe for stops. Just curious.

I am out because, given the conditions of supply and demand, I believe that there are too many trapped shorts from below. So, my thinking is that it can go a lot higher than this and possibly have enough demand to reverse the down move. So, I gave it 8 points plus 1 tick of room to survive and it didn't.

Why the high? I do not let that matter. When I need to be out, I need to be out.I gave it the max i could give it and it so happened to be the high.

My survival in a trade and mental survival depends on event A and event B. If A occurs I stay in. If B occurs I get out. This time B occurred first. When either happens I need to execute. Failure to execute, in the long run, leads to bad things.
I put a few coins in my pocket. It didn't work out the way I hoped, but why would my hope ever matter?

In spite of the fact that I am out, I still see the direction as down. At risk of reversing, but down. If it does stay below 1321 or so I will likely get back in short on a sell stop. It will all depend on how high it goes above where we are now.

Thanks for asking.

[TheNegotiator]

I personally think if there is much in the way of demand if we open above mon low 1317.00 then those trapped shorts could be in trouble(for now). Shame about the trade though as it seemed like it could be good but probably a little too early for it. With earnings just around the corner, traders are likely to want to hold off if they can for a little more time. I guess though if we fail to get back into that 1317-36 bracket and sellers start coming in, there's no reason to not expect a challenge of the 1300 area, probably before the week is out.

[MightyMouse]

Originally Posted by TheNegotiator »

I personally think if there is much in the way of demand if we open above mon low 1317.00 then those trapped shorts could be in trouble(for now). Shame about the trade though as it seemed like it could be good but probably a little too early for it. With earnings just around the corner, traders are likely to want to hold off if they can for a little more time. I guess though if we fail to get back into that 1317-36 bracket and sellers start coming in, there's no reason to not expect a challenge of the 1300 area, probably before the week is out.

More is better but some is better than none.

We gauge as best we can the risk of staying in a trade.

The way I see it:
I could get out for all the wrong reasons and it ends up being the right decision.
I could stay in for all the right reasons and it ends up being the wrong decision.
Or, obviously, I could be right for staying in or right for getting out.

unfortunately, I have to wait to learn which of the above it was, but the important thing is to know which it was and not that I am always right.

Mercy, it is the probing of the unknown that keeps us drawn to the markets like moths to a light.

[TheNegotiator]

Definitely. I am of course interested to see what you do next(although I'm an intraday trader only myself). Good luck!

[MightyMouse]

If we stay below 1321, I plan on going short with a sell stop at 1310.50. As the market moves and jockeys, I will adjust that entry or get rid of it, but will post beforehand.

And at this point it was a good move to get out. Nothing is worse than getting out of a short at the high tick. It stomps the ego a bit. Not that that is a bad thing, but it does feel better when it goes past your exit by at least a little bit.

[MightyMouse]

The plan is to buy 20.75 with a stop or sell 10.50 with a stop.

I will do this with less contracts than I did last Friday since I do not have a monster win to piggy back off of.

Initial stops are 34 ticks from entry and can change to a max of 64.

[MightyMouse]

The long is off the table for the time being. I will not be getting long where i previously stated. I will continue to try to get in short. It missed me, thankfully, at 10.50, but I will still take it there when or if it gets there.

[MightyMouse]

I love it!

If anyone recalls my diatribe about luck in the market on other threads, today is a perfect example.

Today is an example.

My sell stop order to get short is at 1310.50. if one more large market order came in when it was trading down at 1310.75, I would be short and about 6 pts underwater with a stop about 2 pts away. But the order did not come in and my order still sits there and I am under no heat. This is a perfect example of how luck worked in my favor. I am lucky to not have a position that is underwater. It didn't make me money, but it didn't lose me money either.