[MightyMouse]

Originally Posted by ekshay »

MM, would you recommend then...

That if I am lucky enough to make $500 in my $2,500 account (a 20% return) in the next month,
then I would be wise to just withdraw the money, and wait until June 2011.

Then in June 2011, if I can make another $600 on my $3,000 account (a 20% return),
then I would be wise to just withdraw the money, and wait until June 2012.

That it would be wiser to wait 11 months, and unwise to continue trading through August 2010.

I was referring to an avg annual return. So, 20%, could be avg of a 25% loss and a 65% gain over 2 years or a 55% gain in the first year and 10% loss in the second year and so on. I didn't suggest that you should stop trading when you hit some predetermined goal, though I suppose you can do that too.

[Attila]

Statement for 06/22. I leave 3 times as much on the table as I make. Has to stop.

[ekshay]

06/22.

Market went everywhere, but I didn't.

[BlowFish]

Originally Posted by MightyMouse »

Blowfish,

Luck enters the equation before you place your first trade. Your tiny little edge has to continue to be a tiny little edge in the future. You have zero control over that or anything else that happens in the future. It could be that the edge you found, stops being an edge altogether and it could be that your edge performs even better than you thought. You simply do not have control over that. If you did have control over the performance, the CIA, Mossad, and the Vatican would all want to speak to you.

At the end of the day, it is going to take 15% per year compounded annually to turn 5k into 100k. Most successful traders do not peform at that level. I guess 15% sounds too low for most, but it is all relative.

We are not compounding annually are we? We are compounding daily. Maybe that is the source of your confusion. If you have an approach that trades a few times a day and averages a point or two a day you will take 5k to 1million+ in about a year without assuming undue risk. (Undue obviously is defined by the individual trader). As another poster pointed out perhaps you dont not have an edge at all? If you are a day trader and not averaging a point or two a day or you have a couple of good weeks followed by a couple of bad weeks then what you think is an edge is probably not. You really are doing yourself a disservice to close your mind to what are not just possibilities but mathematical facts.

I did a quick google search for a decent position sizing calculator so you could slot n some figures and see for your self. I came across this blog that is a good 'meta page' for a whole bunch of position sizing resources (links at the end). Position Sizing

[ekshay]

06/23.
Getting schooled in Discipline.

[Attila]

Statement for 06/23.. Fed days usually no good to trade.. By about 2:45 this one was clearly one of those and I was $40 up at the time but lost it and more, trading THE WORST 60 minutes of price movement I have seen in a while.. Some trades were stopped out in less that 5 seconds. The more pages, the more losses.

[MightyMouse]

Originally Posted by BlowFish »

We are not compounding annually are we? We are compounding daily. Maybe that is the source of your confusion. If you have an approach that trades a few times a day and averages a point or two a day you will take K to million+ in about a year without assuming undue risk. (Undue obviously is defined by the individual trader). As another poster pointed out perhaps you dint not have an edge at all? If you are a day trader and not averaging a point or two a day or you have a couple of good weeks followed by a couple of bad weeks then what you think is an edge is probably not. You really are doing yourself a disservice to close your mind to what are not just possibilities but mathematical facts.

I did a quick goggle search for a decent position sizing calculator so you could slot n some figures and see for your self. I came across this bog that is a good 'meta page' for a whole bunch of position sizing resources (links at the end). Position Sizing

I am not confused a single bit. I used annual compounding for simplicity. I ball parked the time it would take to get returns equal to the return that a good traded ends up with. I arbitrarily chose 15%. I could have chosen 20 or 12 percent. Each would have been a good rate of return. I suppose someone could achieve 15% a day if that is what you are suggesting. That person would be the master of the universe.

I think a lot of the confusion from my statements comes from people thinking that a trader sets out to earn 15%. Which no one here living the traders dream would consider a decent return for the year. I simply think differently.

No one sets out to earn 15%, each CTA would love to come in at the top of the pack, because the notoriety would bring in a lot more money and they get paid on performance. But that is just not possible and the good ones end up averaging somewhere around 15%.

In October i Will have 1 full year of real time live data to know exactly how much of an edge I have. I know now, however, that It makes no where near the continually compounded rate that one would need to turn 5k into a million in a year.

The fact that I will not have a 5 or 6 digit return at the end of the year does not concern me in the slightest. More is always better, but at this point i am happy taking money from the markets.

I think the greatest source of confusion here is confusing what is possible with what is probable. It is completely possible to turn 5k into 1 million in a year. I simply would not do the things I would have to do to try to achieve that type of result. I am sure I stated this somewhere in the beginning of this thread.

I tried this a few times a while back and I believe I posted something to that effect on TL a while back. One of the times I was "1 trade away" from the million. I ended up losing a great deal of the account. If you want to get a different perspecitve on taxation, have a really good year and a really bad year trading without being set up properly. Another time I didn't get quite as high, but did go bust. I am not suggesting that it cannot be done because I could not do it. I am here watching because I do believe it can be done, and would like to see someone do it. The only difference between someone who did do it and me was 1 or 2 trades.

[ekshay]

06/24
Hit my day's loss limit.
Will post statement when it arrives.

As per my MM plan, I'll now be exclusively trading YM, instead of TF & CL.
This may require a few days on sim.

Hey, the markets are going to be closed from July 1st to 6th, correct?