[Cory2679]

I'm sitting down now to work on my trade management strategy...here is what I had been doing...

- When I take the trade, I base my position size off of my theoretical initial risk...then, from the beginning, I set my stop-loss to -0.25R. So if my theoretical initial risk is 20 ticks, I'll set my stop at 5 ticks.



- I get taken out most of the time. Then I'll re-enter on a break of the high (long)/low (short).
- When I re-enter, I'll base my new stop-loss on the high that was created between my entry and my re-entry (short), or the low that was created between my entry and re-entry (long). I'll adjust my position size down if the new risk is larger than 1R.



So, that's how I manage entries/re-entries...here's how I manage PT's, etc...

First, I was trailing by "R"...so, when I was up 1R, I'd get to break-even, when I was up 2R, I'd move my stop to +1R, and so forth.

I set my profit targets based on Fibonacci Extensions...

Get to BE: 127% level
PT1: 161.8% level
Move stop to PT1: 227% level
PT2: 251.8% level



When price gets fairly close to a PT, and looks like it's going to reverse, I would pull it to lock in some profit...

Also, sometimes, if the chart was contrary to fib extensions/1R,2R levels, I would conform to the chart...

Trade 18 from yesterday was the exception to all this...since it was the NFP announcement, I gave it wiggle-room and set my PT to an arbitrary +2R...I figured if it broke on the news announcement, it would continue in that direction (I was wrong)...I usually just avoid news (NFP/FOMC)...

[Cory2679]

NOTE: The above post was submitted prematurely (I hit "Submit Reply" when I meant to hit "Preview Post"), so if anyone had viewed it prior to this post, you may want to look for changes that have been made, if you're interested.

-Cory

[Cory2679]

When I first began trading the approach I'm attempting to trade now, I had a much less aggressive approach with trade management...

Basically, I had 1 or 2 profit targets...no BE point, no pulling the ripcord, nothing....

EDIT: Well, actually I believe I was getting to BE after PT1 filled...

I would just trail my stop by natural stops...

I guess that's basically the other extreme of what I had been doing...

I'm almost leaning more in that direction again...with what I'm doing now, I'm so aggressive that I end up cutting profits short/chipping away at profits by pulling out and re-entering.

If I'm going to pull out and re-enter, I'm going to need to do it completely different...this just wasn't working out...

I looked back at my charts from the week, particularly Mon-Tues, and I'll see what appears to be a great winning trade on my chart, and I'll look at my results and I will have made something like 0.25R or 0.5R on it (EDIT: or worse...taken a loss!!). That's certainly a red flag to me.

[Cory2679]

Well, I think that's pretty much what I've decided on...the post above! (This is subject to change before Monday.)

I'll choose a profit-target or two based on the fib extension tool...or S/R (if the fib tool doesn't line up with S/R on the chart).

I'll trail by natural stops...and I'll stop and maybe reverse if I get a "123" against my position.

I'll get to BE once PT1 has filled.

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The only thing left to work out is the ripcord situation...whether to even do it, if I do it...under what conditions?...if I do it, what is my plan for re-entry?...etc.

I'm leaning toward avoiding it altogether for the time being (due to my lack of skill/trigger happiness with it), but I haven't made up my mind 100%. I'm going to take a little break to get some other things done I have to do, then come back, review my plan, think more about the ripcord, etc.

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My only hesitation here is that I feel like I might not be cutting my losses aggressively enough!

But on the other hand, I do want to "give it room" to a certain extent.

I wonder if it's possible to do both...or if it's one or the other...

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Any thoughts?

[Cory2679]

I'm also considering revisiting range charts...

[sevensa]

Originally Posted by Cory2679 »

I'm also considering revisiting range charts...

You seems to be changing the way you do things every few days and especially after you have a losing day or day. Have you considered following a plan consistently for at least two weeks and then review, instead of tinkering with it every few days? How would you know something isn't working or is working, if you never give it a chance?

I know I sound like a broken record, but I would strongly suggest that you create a plan that you can execute with as little ambiguity as possible and you stick to it for at least two weeks religiously and then review the results before making any changes to it.

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by sevensa »

You seems to be changing the way you do things every few days and especially after you have a losing day or day. Have you considered following a plan consistently for at least two weeks and then review, instead of tinkering with it every few days? How would you know something isn't working or is working, if you never give it a chance?

I know I sound like a broken record, but I would strongly suggest that you create a plan that you can execute with as little ambiguity as possible and you stick to it for at least two weeks religiously and then review the results before making any changes to it.

In addition to sevensa's suggestion (this must be close to the seventh time he's shared it with you), I would also suggest that no plan will help you if you trade with what seems to be utter disregard for what I call waves or swings, what others call market structure, what still others call context, etc. For example, do you know what the bell to bell time is for currencies - that is, we know that foreign exchange trades 24 hours/5.5 days per week, but when is the "open"? The "close"? And by open I do not mean when do you roll out of bed and by close I do not mean when do you head off for some afternoon delight. I mean do you even know when one day ends and the next begins in the minds of the pros with whom you are playing?

Here's another one - without looking at you chart - do not cheat - without looking at your chart - where were your first long trades taken in relation to the prior day's low? Where was your NFP short entry in relation to the prior day's low? Where was price in relation to the most recent pivot high and pivot low? I don't mean little swing highs and lows, I mean where did the market last pivot from a sustained LH's and LL's to a sustained run of HL's and HH's? Where was price when you were trading in relation to the midpoint of that range? What was your plan for the day?

For what its worth, I got long at the same level more or less as you did on your 2 or 3 long trades made during the Tokyo AM. I intended to risk 1R on the trade, but I came to my senses and pulled out with a negligible profit (some contracts filled at +1 tick, others at +/-0,so after commissions, we were talking pennies to the good). I say "came to my senses" because I usually will not enter prior to NFP. I did so because I was expecting that the ultimate direction for the day for the EURUSD to be a rally. However, after about an hour in the trade, watching vacillate from +12 to -8 and back again, I realized that if it were going to rally, it would already have started. Since it was not showing signs of impulse (hardly had signs of a pulse) I decided to pull it off the table and wait until the morning.

I had one trade on the 6E Friday, and it was a long, entered after NFP on a limit order placed before NFP. I closed 1/3 at 1.3590 and 2/3's at 1.3602. It was all according to plan (albeit an imperfect plan, as it was Friday - I'd have held it rather than closing it when I did had there been another day in the week). I was liquidating the longs when you were making repeated attempts to go short. So we were both selling at the same time, but I was selling to get flat, and you were selling to get short. Opening a new position at the time of the day at that time of the week never occurred to me.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[Cory2679]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

...no plan will help you if you trade with what seems to be utter disregard for what I call waves or swings, what others call market structure, what still others call context, etc. For example, do you know what the bell to bell time is for currencies - that is, we know that foreign exchange trades 24 hours/5.5 days per week, but when is the "open"? The "close"? And by open I do not mean when do you roll out of bed and by close I do not mean when do you head off for some afternoon delight. I mean do you even know when one day ends and the next begins in the minds of the pros with whom you are playing?

I'm not sure I understand what you're asking...which to me probably means my answer is "no."

Of course I know what hours which countries are "open" and I know what hours the CME futures trade in the pit. But no, I couldn't tell you what "bell to bell" time is in "the minds of the pros"...unless you just mean 5pm EST - 5pm EST (Syndey open through NY close).

So, forgive my ignorance, but I'm a little confused.

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Here's another one - without looking at you chart - do not cheat - without looking at your chart - where were your first long trades taken in relation to the prior day's low? Where was your NFP short entry in relation to the prior day's low? Where was price in relation to the most recent pivot high and pivot low? I don't mean little swing highs and lows, I mean where did the market last pivot from a sustained LH's and LL's to a sustained run of HL's and HH's? Where was price when you were trading in relation to the midpoint of that range? What was your plan for the day?

I don't know about "the prior day's low," but I could tell you that the trades were basically in the midpoint of the most recent large move...so my feeling was "it could go either way." With a short I was anticipating a retest of the lows, and with a long I was anticipating a retest and possible break of the high (due to the trade being a perceivably higher low, and due to the fact that price had broken resistance...the resistance being the pivot highs that were created during the multiple tests of that low level).

I honestly do make an attempt to get a grasp of "waves or swings, what others call market structure, what still others call context, etc."...perhaps I just do a poor job of it...my "view" at the time can be seen on this chart:



(I haven't posted charts like this because when I post "today's trades," it's only to show what trades I took...not to give an explanation/context for each one.)

With my NFP trade, I just basically bracketed the swing high and swing low that price was in the middle of leading up to the announcement, and price fell so the short filled...I am inexperienced trading news, but my logic was that the direction the price breaks will indicate a large move in that direction...but of course, I was proven wrong...this was not really a "typical" trade...

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

I had one trade on the 6E Friday, and it was a long, entered after NFP on a limit order placed before NFP. I closed 1/3 at 1.3590 and 2/3's at 1.3602.

I assume you must have bought around 1.3550ish? I believe that's more how you've been trading lately...buying support, selling resistance (as opposed to breakouts/123's).

What I just don't understand is why you were so long biased....being at a midpoint of a big move, I wasn't biased either way...if I had to pick, I'd probably be biased long just because of the new high that was made...but the prior low was still a test of the lows, so I wasn't necessarily convinced...was it because of a TTT level? (I just got the book in the mail today...haven't started reading it, yet).

I'm sorry if I'm just not getting it and if I'm missing something. I'm a bit frustrated with myself...

-Cory