[jonbig04]

No trades in the past few days. Some levels got chopped up and I'm waiting to see what ones form around here. We had a mini DB today. I don't trust the level enough to try longs there, but I will short if the DB fails with momentum, only because I can easily get out if the selling slows down.

Other than that, just watching and waiting,

[jonbig04]

haha too bad I didn't get long at 26! Oh well.

[jonbig04]

[jonbig04]

[jonbig04]

kinda annoying bc i've been planning on this break down for a few days and wasn't able to capitalize, but I think I;ve made the necessary adjustments. Also working on some intraday stuff.

[johnjohn1hew]

Hey jon, have you ever tried to dissect these larger timeframe moves using a 1 min. chart? I know that when i see an opportunity in a 15 minute chart, all i have to do is look at the 5 min and/or the 1 min and i spot entry opportunities. Also, it is extremely hard to call tops and bottoms (it's basically predicting), so why be contrarian? Why not go with the flow? I always assume continuation and then go from there. When a DB or DT forms, you should wait until the pattern actually indicates a reversal (ie. breaks past the midpoint and stays past it).

Another point: if you want into a breakout for the long run, then why not wait for a retracement/pullback back to see if prior support will act as resistance. Your stop is then protected and you have a high-reward-low-risk trade.

And another: wait for multiple confirmation - It decreases the risk. Use things like trend lines, candle patterns, volume (higher on BO, low on pullback), s/r levels (swings, long-term levels, etc.), market internals, etc.

If this method you have been using is not working out for you then drastically change everything. You're a young guy and following this specific method could cause you to just give up...something that i am pretty sure you do not want to do. Send me a PM if you are interested in some of the materials that i have been collecting that i think could help you (i'm looking for a partner in my research).

Note: I am just a beginner, so just take these things as suggestions, and not as the answer to making money.

[jonbig04]

I use a 5 sec and a 10k CVB chart, but i haven't been taking advantage of them as much as a should.

I'm not sure if you saw, but I am going to join thales thread and try to work in what he does into my trading. I'm not going to over-haul everything. I don't think the money made over the past 4 months has been luck, but I'm getting hosed this month and would like a smoother equity curve and over all more consistency.

[jonbig04]

Oh sorry, about the break out setups. You are right, sometimes (about 25% of the time it seems) price does flip the level before continuing downward. The majority of the time though price has enough momo to just go and never look back. If I were to wait for the PB I would miss the majority of the BOs (keep in mind these are larger time frame BO's and my targets are no less than 10-12 ES).

With this in mind, typically I just get in on market and wait for the momo to carry me along. But the last two times the setup occurred, that didn't work and waiting for the flip would have been the way to go. two missed trades is around 20ES net to me, so naturally I started to look and here's what I'm going to do on that particular set up:

enter aggressively as soon as it starts to break out even a little. This entry will be in case the momo kicks in. If so I will be along for the ride. If momo doesn't come and price just lies there, I exit (usually for a loss of 2-3 ticks). I then wait to see if it flips the level and enter there, or enter when it makes a HH or LL. This will enable me to catch the rapid break out as well as the ones that want to retest before they break down.